Larry Sabato predicts: +29 Dems- House and +6 Dems- Senate

[npincus]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

He's on Franken now... those are his predictions; he has called every single race. Sabato is supposed to be non-partisan.

[BurtWorm]

1. I hope he's right.

:patriot:

[longship]

2. His talk on Franken is anything but non-partisan.

He's talking like a Democrat. I've always thought he was a Republican.

[npincus]

3. he's yukking it up all right

but he is supposed to be non-partisan.

Interestingly, Sabato, who knew George Allen back in their college days, recalled on Harball, having heard allen use the "N-word" numerous times. This didn't get a lot of attentions, but certainly validared the other witnesses who had come forward on that matter and were smeared by Allen's minions.

[Norquist Nemesis]

9. Technically, he said he had no doubt Allen did it

but it was 'reported' the same as that he "knew" it.

What I took him to mean was that he people he knows and trusts (who were also part of the same circle) told him they heard George Allen say it. He had no doubt they were telling him the truth. It still had the same effect in the way he said it.

Exposing Allen for his true character is a good thing! :)

[npincus]

13. Hmmm.... if my memory serves me correctly

(and sometimes it doesn't!) I believe I heard Sabato say that he (himself) had heard Allen use the word... I was watching Sabato on Hardball when he said that, and tweety grilled him on it. But, my brain isn't as good as it was yesterday!

Anyway, the suspense is killing me... can't wait until it's over...

:)

[Norquist Nemesis]

16. Missed him yesterday, this was when it first came out

My lil' old brain gets a little more flatulent each day, too! LOL!!!

Anyway, it was a little strange the first go around. He stated clearly (while Matthews was talking over him and interrupting) here's the transcript: (Sabato is pretty far down the page) http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15013777/

...

SABATO: I said he was devoted to, I called him a redneck, but I think he would embrace that term himself, Some people called him neck. That was his nickname.

MATTHEWS: You mean with the cowboy boots, the confederate flag, the noose, the whole works. What about these charges that he actually used the bad language that some of us are familiar with in this country—in fact, most Americans are—the bad language about people from another, other background—did he do it?

SABATO: I can‘t say how frequently he did it, but I don‘t believe him when he denies never having done it.

MATTHEWS: Well that in this country, for that generation, is a very hard test. The accusation here, I believe is that he was distinctive in what is being called racial hatred, that he regularly used the awful word, the “N” word with some sort of attitude. Is that true?

SABATO: Well I‘m simply going to say that I‘m going to stay with what I know is the case. And the fact is that he did use the “N” word, whether he‘s denying it now or not. He did use it. It was the ‘70s, you‘re right, it was a harsh term, it was an obscenity at this as far as I‘m concerned.

...
So this gets into who do you believe, or is it more likely that you believe the ones who make accusations and believe the others are simply loyalists. Then again, they go back and check the contributions, and the guy who—this guy Sheldon (ph) apparently gave to a Democrat down there and he campaigned down there. He also gave to a Republican.

How do we know who to believe? You say believe the accusations, right?

SABATO: I‘m saying only about the “N” word. I‘m not saying about the other instance. I wasn‘t there for those incidents. But...

MATTHEWS: How do you know about the “N” word? How do you know, Larry, about the “N” word?

SABATO: Because there is other evidence that I‘m not going to go into on your show, Chris, sorry.

MATTHEWS: But you can swear to this?

SABATO: I absolutely believe that he used the “N” word. That is absolute correct and I do believe that. Also I must tell you, Ken Sheldon is a very able, dependable fellow, highly regarded.

MATTHEWS: But you never heard him use it, did you?

SABATO: Chris, I‘m not going to go into any more details.

MATTHEWS: No, that‘s a yes or no. I mean, if you have, you have, if you haven‘t, you haven‘t.

SABATO: Yes. Well, and there are the two choices and you just presented them and we‘ve had a nice talk.
....

It was weird, and maybe it's just my perception, but what I took from it was that he had people (including Ken Sheldon) who he absolutely trusts their word that told him they heard Allen say it.

[npincus]

18. thank ya kindly

for digging that up!

:)

[ronnykmarshall]

4. Interesting results.

My biggest fear is a 51 - 49 Democratic majority. I can just see Holy Joe bolting to the elephants.

[in_cog_ni_to]

5. It sure would be nice to have a 52 - 48 pad in the Senate.

I REALLY don't trust Lieberman and what he has planned.

[ronnykmarshall]

11. That's what I want to see.

At LEAST a 52 seat majority.

[Norquist Nemesis]

12. I don't trust Leiberman either

I have the feeling he may be Karl's trump card.

[cali]

6. Not going to happen.

I grew up in CT, and my mother has been involved in dem politics for decades and known Lieberman for a long time. She isn't voting for him, but she's convinced there's no way he'll switch to R. Anyway, I agree with Sabato about the House (I'm going with a 27 or 28 dem pick up) but I think we'll pick up 5 in the Senate, not 6.

[ronnykmarshall]

8. Thanks.

That's good to know.

[longship]

7. Joe won't bolt.

He's so vain that he ran as an independent after losing his primary. Do you honestly think that Joe will give up a leadership position in the *majority* party for *no* leadership position in the minority party?

[ronnykmarshall]

10. Yeah you're right.

Someone also mentioned that if Rummy stepped down and * tapped Joe for the job, we'd have to deal with at GOP gov in CT to pick the new senator.

[Norquist Nemesis]

14. With a 51-49, yes, I do.

Absolutely. Because, as you say, he's so vain about it and his entitlement to be a Senator...imagine his power to stand on the side of Bush with the war.

[longship]

15. There's no indication that he will do that.

Your opinion is wrong. You have no facts to support you.

This is one of those "I'd rather rule in Hell than serve in heaven" type deals.
Lieberman is a real problem, but he's the Democrats' problem.

[Norquist Nemesis]

17. And that is your opinion as well.

Your post asked for an opinion. "Do you honestly think..." I merely stated my opinion, as you asked. If you don't like it or disagree, you're entitled.

[Zynx]

19. I'm pretty much on board with that. I predict +6 in the Senate and +32

in the House.