Democrats Leading in 33 House Seats Currently Held by GOP

[Time for change]

Based on 124 polls from multiple sources assessing 57 competitive House seats taken in October or November (most within the past few days) and published at Pollster.com, Democrats are leading, as of the day before the mid-term elections, in 33 races for House seats currently held by Republicans. Since there are zero (0) Democratic seats for which Republicans hold a lead, that means that if the latest polls hold the Democrats stand to pick up 33 Republican House seats, which would give them a 37 seat advantage in the House of Representatives of 236-199.

More specifically, in 21 of those 33 currently Republican seats, the Democratic candidate is leading in both the latest poll and (if applicable) the average of all poll results taken within 10 days of the latest poll. In the remaining 12 Republican seats where Democrats are leading, the lead in the latest poll is within the margin of error or the average of the polls taken within 10 days of the latest poll are within the margin of error.

In addition, there are 21 Republican held seats that are competitive (within 5 points), though the Republican was shown to be leading in either the latest poll (17 seats) or the average of the polls taken within 10 days of the latest poll. And, there are 3 currently Democratic held seats that are competitive by that definition, though the Democrat is leading in each of them.

It could be argued that the Republicans could easily win any of the 13 seats in which the Democrat lead is within the margin of error. But statistically, it is just about as likely that the Democrat could win any of the 21 competitive Republican held seats where they are not currently leading.

In the table below I listed the specific races according to the categories that I noted above. After the Congressional District I list the date of the last poll, the result of the last poll (+ means a Democratic lead), followed if applicable by the average result of all the polls taken within 10 days of the latest poll (which includes the latest poll), with the number of polls taken within those 10 days in parenthesis. I’ve also noted races that involve scandals with the name of the disgraced Republican, whether or not he is running or has resigned (DeLay, Ney, Foley).

Dem lead in latest poll (and average within 10 days of that poll) above MOE (22 likely pick-ups for Dems)

Dist. .. Last date . Result . Last 10 day average (# polls)

AZ 8……10-29….. +12….. +11 (2)
CO 7……10-29….. +16….. +12 (3)
FL 16....10-1….… +7……………………………..Foley
FL 22…. 11-2….… +9……. +6 (3)
IL 6…. ..10-29….. +14….. +3 (4)
IN 8…….10-26….. +10….. +8 (2)
IA 1…….11-3….… +21….. +14 (2)
KY 3….…11-1….… +8……. +3 (3)
NE 3……10-29….. +6……
NY 24. .10-10….. +11…..
NY 25. .10-26….. +5 (2)……………………….. Reynolds
NY 29. .10-26….. +11….. +11 (2)
NC 11…..11-1…… +9……. +8 (3)
OH 1.....10-26….. +5 (2)..
OH 15. .10-10….. +12…..
OH 18. .10-29….. +20…………………………..Ney
PA 6…….10-29….. +5…… +4 (3)
PA 7…….10-24….. +7……………………………Weldon
PA 10…..10-29….. +9…… +10 (2) ………Sherwood
TX 22…..10-25….. +8……………………………DeLay
WI 8…….10-26….. +6…… +3 (2)

Democrat lead within the margin of error (12 races for seats currently held by GOP)

AZ 5……10-29….. +2……
CA 11….10-26….. +2…………………………….Pombo
CT 2…….10-30….. +7…… E (5)
CT 4…….10-29….. +7…… E (4)
CT 5…….10-29….. +3…… +5 (3)
FL 13……10-24….. +2…… +5 (2)
IL 10…...10-26….. +2…… E (2)
IN 2……..10-31….. +3…… +6(3)
KY 4…….10-29….. +3…… +2 (3)
NM 1.....11-2…….. +1…… +3 (3)
NY 19…..10-26….. +2…… +3 (3)
NY 20. …11-3…….. +3….. +5 (3)………… Sweeney

Other competitive races where seat currently held by Republican (21 races)

AZ 1……10-26….. -2……. -8 (2)
CO 4…..11-2 …… -1……. +2 (3)
FL 24….10-21….. -2…………………………….Feeney
ID 1……11-1……. +4…… +1 (2)
IN 9……11-3……. -2.…… +3 (3)
IA 2……10-26….. -2…….
MN 1….10-26 …. -3…….
NE 1…….11-3…… -5…….
NH 2.....11-3…… -1……. +1 (4)
NJ 7…….10-26…. -3…….
NY 26….11-3…… -4……. -5 (2)
NC 8…..10-26…. +4…… -6 (2)
OH 2…..10-31…. +3…… -1 (2)
OH 12…10-26….. -5…….
PA 4…..10-26….. -4……. -4 (3)
PA 8……10-30…. +5…… -2 (4)
VA 2…..10-29….. -8……. -2 (3)
VA 10…10-10….. -5…….
WA 5….10-26 …. -5…….
WA 8….10-28 …. -6……. -2 (2)
WY….…10-25….. -4……. -6 (2)

Competitive races in seats currently held by Democrats (3 races)

GA 12…10-26…. +3
IL 8…….10-26…. +5…… +7 (4)
IN 7……10-20…. +5…… +1 (2)


Qualifications to the above interpretation

Of course this doesn’t necessarily mean that the Democrats are going to gain at least 21 House seats tomorrow.

One possibility that would make these polls wrong would be a substantial turn of opinion favoring the Republicans. A somewhat ominous sign is that three out of five of the most recent generic Congressional ballot polls, released yesterday, show the Democrats with a single digit lead (Pew Research 4; ABC/Washington Post 6; Gallup 7), following several consecutive weeks where all such polls showed the Democrats with a double digit lead, ranging from 11 to 23, though the two most recently released polls (CNN and FOX) show the Democrats with a 20 point and 13 point lead, respectively. The huge difference in recent polls is difficult to understand, and is way beyond the margin of statistical error. The good majority of individual House race polls are not recent enough to reflect the recent change in generic Congressional ballot polls, if indeed they represent a real trend. Nevertheless, even if they do represent a real trend, the Democrat lead is still plenty large enough that it should result in a Democratic takeover in the House.

Another possibility would be that the polls are systematically biased towards the Democrats. For example, that could prove to be the case if Democratic turnout is below what is expected or Republican turnout is greater than expected. However, given that polls have consistently shown an abnormally high level of enthusiasm for this election by Democrats, compared with Republicans, that possibility seems unlikely.

The last possibility that could prove these polls wrong would be massive election fraud. Enough said about that for now.


What use can be made of these numbers?

For one thing, they’re fun to look at.

But more important, if the Republicans should keep control of the House after this election, which would be very unlikely in the absence of election fraud, these pre-election poll results should be compared with whatever exit polls are available to see if they are consistent with them. If both the exit polls and the pre-election polls indicate substantial Democratic gains that are not borne out by the official election results, and if the differences between the polls and the official results are well beyond the statistical margin of error (as was the case in 2004 with regard to differences between the exit polls and the official results in the Presidential race), then these numbers will need to be carefully analyzed for patterns in connection with what we know about the potential for fraud in the different races throughout the country.

[KingFlorez]

1. That sounds exactly right

[gully]

2. Great info. I did want to say that the RCP average in 2004 did show

Bush winning by the margin he did. That's why I have SOME hope that this election is too far gone for them to steal. I don't think they have the infrastructure to do what they did in Florida and Ohio in 33 places across the US. That doesn't mean they won't try.

[Time for change]

15. I really believe it is

Between the magnitude of our lead and being well prepared to identify problems (See post # 11), I think that in order to pull this one off they would have to make it so obvious that they would be called on it. I don't think they can afford to take that chance.

[Mabus]

3. The KS 2CD race is overlooked again

Bush came here yesterday to campaign for a five-time incumbent because the polls are showing a deadheat.

edited to that Cheney was here last month too. I think they are scared.

[Time for change]

7. Pollster.com must have missed that one

There may have been a few that they missed.

Frequently when someone decided to look at a new race for a seat previously held by a Republican they found that the Democrat was close or ahead. So, it might be significantly better than what I've written here. There may be a number of races that just weren't polled or weren't given any attention because nobody considered it competitive, when in fact it was a lot closer than anyone though.

[Mabus]

9. The DCCC started running ads for her recently

so they're paying attention.

I understand there are hundreds of races and it is a Kansas race that everyone has assumed would be a cakewalk for them. Boyda's running a real grassroots campaign. A few years ago the districts were gerrymandered with an eye to get the only Dem out of the House. One of the ways this was accomplished was to split Lawrence (my city) in half. Those of us who live east of Iowa St. remained in the 3rd CD. Those who live west of Iowa St. were moved into the 2nd. And to put it bluntly, they fucked up. Lawrence is a college town. We have a number of liberal faculty members who live in the newer part of town, the west side. The number of apartment buildings, housing those liberal students, has increased on the west side. A lot of volunteers for Boyda in Lawrence in 2004 were from the KU Dems. This got a lot of students involved and many of them still are. So, after the redistricting the drumbeat started building and more people have gotten on board. The first chance we got we elected an almost solid slate of Democratic officeholders on the city, county and state levels. Then Dean came through here and in front of two SRO crowds (private KSDP fundraiser and public fundraiser downtown) he spoke to the party faithful as part of his kickoff to the 50 State Strategy and it is working. Every year we have more and more people showing up at our annual picnics.

Lat week on CSPAN, a Poli-Sci prof from K-State said that Lawrence went 50-50 on the Ryun-Boyda match-up in 2002 and said, "if Boyda can crack Lawrence she could pull off an upset." From the looks of things, she cracked Lawrence. Because Bush scheduled a stop to campaign for her opponent late last week, Boyda decided to fight back. She sent out an e-mail Saturday night and asked people to show up in Topeka for a Boyda rally on Sunday. Over 1,000 people showed up on short notice. Another 100 -125 people protested at Bush's appearance later that day.

This morning, apparently in response to the robo-calling, I saw Nancy's new ad. She tells people that there are a lot of lies being spread about her and her positions. She comes right and says she won't raise taxes on the working class and she has never advocated blanket amnesty for illegal immigrants. Then she goes on to remind people that she has written three newsletters that tell people what her positions are on different issues. She paid for these newsletters to be included in local papers because she believes Kansans deserve to know the truth about who they are voting for. I think it is a masterpiece. She stays positive. In contrast, Ryun has a commercial featuring his daughter whining that "people are lying about my daddy," which might work better if she didn't look like they had a gun on her, forcing her to do the commercial.

Anyway, we'll find out tomorrow.

btw, incumbent Dennis Moore (D-3rd CD) is favored to retain his seat. He's running against a book-burner/creationist/fundie. So there's a lot of excitement at the prospect of having two Dems from Kansas in the US House.

[Time for change]

14. That's great -- My favorite statement of hers is

that she won't raise taxes on the working class --

thus implying that she WOULD reverse the Bush tax cuts on the wealthy. That will be necessary, and Dems should be saying that all over the place.

[Art_from_Ark]

18. Repubs diverting resources to formerly "safe" seats

Gotta love that (although it's on the taxpayer's dime :mad: )

[longship]

4. I've printed this.

Great resource for tomorrow.

Recommended and :kick:ed

[Time for change]

19. Thank you longship

I hope it proves accurate.

[Quixote1818]

5. They have J.D Hayworth as leading but actually

in the last couple of polls the Dem has been ahead. Based on the last 5 polls Hayworth is still leading but based on the last two polls the Dem has pulled ahead. I have noticed that with a number of polls lately.

[Time for change]

10. That's why my assessment in more optimistic (for Dems) than theirs

They average the last 5 polls, no matter how long ago they were taken. If you combine several polls taken over several months the results will be a conclusion that is misleadingly slanted towards the Republicans, because the Dems have come on very strong in the past several weeks. That's why I think it's more realistic to just look at the last 10 days (unless no polls taken during that time) than the last 5 polls regardless of over what period of time.

I think that AZ 5 is most likely a Democratic win, based on the last poll (I see only one poll, but if he's winning in the last 2, that's even better.)

[OneBlueSky]

6. anecdotal evidences suggests that NY-19th is leaning Dem . . .

as we head into the final stretch . . . John Hall's mailers have gone to every home in the district and have been highly effective, and he has a massive volunteer corps who are visiting and calling voters in huge numbers . . .

I don't want to speak too soon, but my gut says it will be a comfortable win for us, and thus a previously unanticipated pick-up of one more Republican seat for the Dems . . . (gut don't fail me now!) . . .

[Time for change]

16. It's more than acecdotal

That's what the polls say too:

http://pollster.com/polls/?state=NY19&race=house_race

[demobabe]

8. Thank you for this

Great info here. I had heard the low number for seats would be 13 and the high 47...

I hope we have a landslide of seats - I am so run down from the last two elections I get resigned to thinking that EVERY election is going to be stolen but somehow I keep up hope this one will be different.

[Time for change]

17. Thank you - A lot of us are very upset about the last 3 elections

which is one more reason why as soon as we take Congress back the Dems had better institute some far ranging election reform in order to make sure that nothing like this happens again for a long time to come.

[Time for change]

11. Election fraud

I mentioned election fraud in the OP but didn't say much about it.

It is hoped (and I believe it will happen) that four factors will counteract election fraud tomorrow and overcome it:

1) Massive turnout and a landslide victory for the Democrats.

2) An organized system of poll watching (which we have here in Maryland, but I'm not sure to what extent other states have it) the purpose of which is to identify and call attention to suspected fraud as soon as it is seen.

3) Obtaining counts at precincts at the time of poll closing (a part of the poll watching process), so as to preclude central tabulators from changing results.

4) Exit polls of close races (analyzed in conjunction with pre-election polls), so as to identify serious discrepancies between the expected and actual results.

[bobbolink]

12. I wanna see Musgrave out, and Fawcett in....

Those two in CO will make me very happy!

[Time for change]

13. Average November polls for competitive Senate races

With number of November polls in parentheses

MD…. +2 (3)
MO…. +3 (5)
MT…. +4 (4)
NJ….. +6 (8)
RI….. +2 (2)
VA…. +1.5(4)
TN…. -4.5 (6)

This assumes that PA and OH are no longer competitive, since Brown and Casey have double digit leads.