Thank you, John Kerry - Democratic Underground

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Thank you, John Kerry

Polls: Democrats' leads shrinking but still strong
Updated 11/6/2006 8:22 AM ET
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Democrats, poised to score gains in the U.S. Senate, are struggling to pull ahead in the final seat they need to win control, USA TODAY/Gallup Polls in six key states find.
POLL RESULTS: State elections | Nationwide elections

Democratic challengers are leading Republican incumbents — in some cases narrowly — in Missouri, Montana and Rhode Island, according to the USA TODAY surveys. Other polls show Democratic challengers ahead in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Even if Democrats sweep those five races, however, they would fall one seat short of the six needed for majority status. Two GOP targets, in Tennessee and Virginia, now lead by 3 percentage points among likely voters.

"It says to me the Senate is still very much in play and could go either way," says Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report.

ON DEADLINE: Where do you see the polls pointing?

In a separate nationwide USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, taken Thursday through Sunday, Democrats were favored over Republicans for Congress by 51%-44% among likely voters. That edge of 7 percentage points had narrowed from a 13-point margin two weeks ago.

"Republicans are back in the game; they're engaged," says Andy Kohut of the Pew Research Center, which had similar results in a survey released Sunday.

In the House, Democrats need to pick up 15 seats to regain control for the first time since 1994. Rothenberg and other non-partisan analysts predict they will.

In the Senate, the USA TODAY state polls show the Democratic incumbent considered most at risk, Democrat Robert Menendez of New Jersey, is now 10 points ahead of Tom Kean. Among GOP incumbents, however, Conrad Burns trails Jon Tester by 9 points in Montana, Jim Talent trails Claire McCaskill by 4 points in Missouri, and Lincoln Chafee trails Sheldon Whitehouse by 3 points in Rhode Island.

Republican Sen. George Allen leads Jim Webb in Virginia and Republican Bob Corker leads Harold Ford in Tennessee by identical 49%-46% margins.

Several races remain fluid. In Rhode Island, where Whitehouse's lead has tightened from an 11-point margin a month ago, 16% of likely voters say they made up their minds within the last week and 13% are still undecided. In Missouri, 7% remain undecided.

By big margins, voters across the board say most of the TV ads they've seen have been negative. In Tennessee, an overwhelming 74% disapproved of a GOP ad that showed a sexy blonde saying, "Harold, call me."

But in Missouri, voters approved 49%-38% of an ad that showed actor Michael J. Fox, visibly affected by Parkinson's disease, speaking in support of embryonic stem cell research and McCaskill.

Find this article at:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-11-05-national-poll_x.htm