Final Stretch Elections Predictions MEGATHREAD - Senate and House, call your winners (no diebold)

[Grebrook]

So, I guess we could use one of these. Let's post our final predictions here. What senate races do you think we'll win or lose? Personally, I think this:

Missouri: McCaskill 51%-47% and the Libertarian at 1%
Maryland: Cardin, 51%-49%
Pennsylvania: Casey, 56%-44% (I was disappointed that his 23% lead back in May diminished, I was hoping for a humiliating end to punctuate Rick Santorum's career)
Rhode Island: Whitehouse 52%-48%
Tennessee: Corker 54%-46%
Montana: Tester 52%-48%
Ohio: Brown 56%-44%
Virginia: Webb 52%-48%
New Jersey: Menendez 51%-49% (If not for Corzine's blunders, it would have been an easy 10%)

Michigan, Minnesota and Washington are fairly easy 10%-15% Democratic victories. Michigan might only have an 7%-8% margin if she's unlucky.

In the House I see this:

AZ-8
CO-7
CT-5
IA-1
IN-8
FL-13
FL-16
KY-3
NC-11
NH-2
NM-1
NY-20
NY-24
OH-1
OH-2
OH-15
OH-18
PA-7
PA-10
TX-22
WY-At Large

That being said, those aren't seats I think we "can" win, those are seats I think we certainly will win. There are, naturally, more seats up for grabs in PA, NY, IN, CT, IL, CO, FL, AZ, KS, KY, CA, WA and NE, but I just can't see us losing in those specific ones. All of the polls have us ahead, local political environments are bad, and flat out poison in some cases (KY, NY, OH, PA).

Ultimately, I don't buy the hype of the legendary GOTV machine for the GOP. Why? Because they targeted it incorrectly, and threw all of their resources into the most obvious districts. WA-8 and CO-4 are the best examples. Each of the Republicans there, Musgrave and Reichert, won re-election in 2004 with less than 6% of the vote, and as a result, the GOP knew they would have to defend those seats. So they did, and as a result, months before the election, polls looked disastrous for the Dems trying to fight in those districts. The GOP swamped them. But then the screws came loose out in IN, KY and OH because of internal Republican implosions in state politics due to unpopular Republican governors, and had committed suicide by devoting themselves to fighting off the most obvious Dem targets, believing gerrymandering could save them. John Hostletter represents a district that was won by Bush by a margin of 24% in 2004. Yet they've basically conceded his defeat, he actually cancelled many of his campaign events after poll after poll showed him down by 15-20% and the GOTV talk fell to nothing.

So let me say this, I DO believe that the Republican GOTV is incredible. That they could get Marilyn Musgrave 10% above her Dem opponent months ago in the polls, and Reichert 10% as well, in a political environment such as this, and actually INCREASE their percentage of the vote from 2004, that is something quite incredible. But then a funny thing happened. The polls narrowed, SurveyUSA, which previously had been touting a consistent 8% lead for Reichert, says it's now tied at 49%-49%. And Musgrave is now only 1% above her challenger, and below 45%, which is a death warrant for an incumbent.

Let's be honest here, just how the hell is the GOP going to GOTV in RURAL districts in Indiana, Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska or Colorado? That's the entire point. You can't do it as effectively because suburban voters are easier to GOTV because it's easy to door-to-door. That's why Conrad Burns is fucked. You have to walk for half a mile to find your neighbor in Montana. The GOTV operation just isn't as effective. That's why I'm actually skeptical about Democratic victories in the Philadelphia suburbs (except for Weldon, the FBI investigation killed him off).

So don't fear the GOP GOTV on election day. Just rev up your own.

Also, any predictions?

[dorktv]

1. You forgot AZ-5 for goodness sakes!

[spag68]

2. IMHO

gotv as they have played it has run it's course. New methods of getting everyone to vote will have to be devised. Education on the issues is best, but like the aussies, maybe we should impose a fine for anyone that is registered, but fails to vote.

[Grebrook]

3. lol, that's a little extreme, I've always been partial to the "Voter lottery" idea, cast a vote

take a lottery ticket, there's a jackpot every year in every state. It could be you!