I Need A Smart Person To Tell Me What This All Means

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-116earlyvotingabsentee,0,3592408.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines

[SteppingRazor]

1. I don't think it really means a whoe lot...

the most interesting number is the huge disparity in Dem. vs. GOP early voters in Broward County. Broward is a blue county, but not by as huge a number as that. That could be a sign of massive turnout by Democrats, which would spell the end of Clay Shaw and possibly put Jim Davis over the top.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. I Was Thinkinhg Of Its Impact On The Three Cmpetitive Congressional Races Here In FL

Unfortnately I think Charlie C(h)rist is going to be our next governor -:(


I think Broward is one of the most blue counties in FL after Gasden which is very, very small...

[SteppingRazor]

7. I think a Crist win is likely too, but...

not a 100-percent certainty.

Anyway, As I said, the early voting looks great for Ron Klein, but it's not a particularly good indicator. As for the other competitive races, I can't see Joe Negron keeping Foley's seat GOP. It'll be way to difficult for people to actually vote for Foley, even if they know it's really a vote for Negron.

And, um... what's the third competitive seat?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. The Seat Cruella Vacated In Her Doomed Bid To Be A Senator

I think Bill Nelson instantly become a great vice presidential pick in 08... I don't see how the GOPU can win the presidency without FL...

[SteppingRazor]

11. Hmm... I haven't really ever considered the 13th to be competitive...

Vern Buchanan has led in the polls the entire time, has a 4-to-1 monetary advantage over Christine Jennings, and is running in a largely Republican district that re-elected Bush by 13 points in 2004, and re-elected Harris by 10 points, despite her already-burgeoning unpopularity.

I really can't see this as a Dem. pickup. :(

[JuniperLea]

2. I thought these were not supposed to be released until after the polls close!!

Seems fishy...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. It Only Says Who Voted Not Who They Voted For

eom

[JuniperLea]

5. You're right! Thanks... eom

[ps1074]

6. It means

democrats did a better job at early voting and republicans did a better job at absentee voting...

[Up2Late]

9. I all looks very good to me, except for the Miami-Dade numbers...

...that's not normal, I would expect the numbers to be similar to Broward County.

Over 11% Statewide is good! Here in Georgia it's over 13% in early voting too.

What it looks like to me is, the Republican had a plan to steel some Key races (like in Miami-Dade) but they didn't plan for (or have the resources for) such a hugh wave of anger and discontent with them this election.

Looks like it's going to be a good day for Democracy today.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Dade Is Not A Xerox Of Broward...

Miami Dade County has a large Cuban population which is overwhelmingly Republican...

[Warpy]

12. Absentee voting tends to be strongly GOP

because those folks are generally old and shut in, getting all their knowledge of the world from TV and resenting the taxes on their social security if their investment income is high enough.

Miami/Dade is generally pubbie, but their figures are like this:

Total R: 53638
D: 49484
I: 17729

It looks like most Democrats waited until today. It's a little surprising there's less than a 4,000 ballot difference favoring the R's. Usually, the difference runs almost 2:1 in most areas, especially in absentee voting.

If the indies break Democratic this time by a very conservative 60:40, the numbers are:

D: 10637 + 49484 = 60121
R: 7092 + 53638 = 60730

This is really close. Yes, there's some crossover voting, but whether or not it's making a difference is unknown.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. I Thought Absentee Voting Trends GOPU Because They Are More Likely To Be Travelling Or Out Of State

eom


I'm confused.. Miami Dade has more registered Dems than GOPUERS but not by much...

[Up2Late]

15. That's true, and these are just Who voted, not who they voted for...

...so I guess we should wait to see.

Besides, they don't usually run the memory cards with the vote flipping software on them (which Diebold swears is imposable, but was shown clearly doable in the New HBO movie) until about 3am.

[BootinUp]

14. Looks like some fired up Dems down there!

We are kickin butt in the early voting.