Big, Big Breakdown Of All Competitive Senate Races

[JABBS]

Click here to read the race-by-race analysis.

Essentially, the Dems should have four seats in the bag, if you include Montana. (Hotline said that 25% of Montanans voted absentee, and those votes favor Tester 58% to 37%).

Two lean to the GOP because of historical voting patterns. IF the Dems get those two, they regain control.

[BamaLefty]

1. We won't lose both MO and VA

No way.

Polls give McCaskill and Webb the lead. And VA is becoming increasingly Democratic.

[kentuck]

2. I think Webb stands the best chance of winning...

in the three states of VA, TN, and MO... Count on 1 of those at the most. Add Santorum and Dewine and possibly Burns. We would need Chaffee's seat to get a tie. I wonder how many Democrats are voting for him to day, not realizing they are giving the Senate back to the Repubs??

[BamaLefty]

3. I'm not sure

Chafee got a 23% approval rating among RI Democrats in his latest job approval rating. 2/10 supporting members from the other party is quite a lot. :( However, I do think that Whitehouse pulls it out in uber liberal Rhode Island.

I don't see us winning in TN. Honestly, the color of Ford's skin will prevent him from winning. The South, as a whole, is still very much behind the nation when it comes to race relations. He'll do better than was originally expected and make strides in the state, but lose by 5-7% IMO.

Santorum, Burns, and DeWine are all dead meat. Stick a fork in them, they're done!

[JABBS]

4. my only worry

in Missouri is that the embyronic stem cell ballot initiative is being falsely labeled as something that will allow human cloning -- that may drive up the GOP voter turnout in an otherwise close race.

In Virginia, there are so many allegations of voter suppression against Webb, I'm worried what might happen.

I agree, recent polls in Virginia have shown Webb up a hair. The Mizzou polls have shown a tie (within margin of error) for several weeks.

[BamaLefty]

5. True... but,

the only polls that I've seen on the Mizzou stem cell initative have said that it will pass. I don't think we'll be hurt by it.