REAL CLEAR POLITICS - today's predictions.

[gully]

SENATE: 51R, 49D (D+4)

Of the original fourteen competitive Senate contests RCP has been tracking, six races have Final RCP Averages in the double digits (PA, MN, WA, MI, OH, and CT) and are safe for each side. Of those six, Democrats will net pick ups in Ohio and Pennsylvania and a nominal hold with Joe Lieberman’s win in Connecticut as an Independent. Three races (NJ, AZ, and TN) have Final RCP Averages over 6% and Lean toward each respective party and thus would be holds for each side.

The remaining five races listed in the Toss Up category (MO, MT, VA, MD, and RI) all have Final RCP Averages below 4% and are too close to call definitively for one side. Democrats hold leads in all five of these races, and based off the RCP Averages and the latest InTrade market quotes the most likely scenario would be for Democrats to win 3 of these 5 races. That would net two additional Democratic pick ups and leave them with a total gain of four seats.

HOUSE: 222 D, 213 R (D +19)

On the Republican side, RCP's Final House ratings list thirteen seats in the Leans Democrat category, fourteen in the Toss Ups column and twenty seats rated Leans Republican. On the Democratic side, 2 seats are rated as Toss Ups with 4 Leaning Democrat.

Splitting Toss Ups 50/50, RCP projects Democrats picking up 19 seats in the House of Representatives with an overall range of 14 - 24 seats.

Governors: 28 D, 22 R (D +6)

Four races remain as Toss Ups: Minnesota, Maryland, Idaho and Nevada. Democrats lead in the polls in Maryland and Minnesota, Republicans lead in Nevada and it is mixed in Idaho. RCP feels Republican incumbents in Maryland and Minnesota will gut out victories and Democrats will pull of a win in either Nevada or Idaho to give Democrats a net pick up of 6 seats.

RCP predicted Bush's win in 04 by averaging the polls. > http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html


Main website = http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Feel free to post other predictions.

[longship]

1. House gains are difficult to predict.

RCP, and everybody else, is going to underestimate the Dem House gains.

These smaller House district races are far more sensitive to turnout. Margins in tight races are usually in the hundreds of votes. Even a small bump in Dem turnout can flip the race. It looks like turnout is high today. We could be in for a very exciting evening.

[AX10]

3. I agree.

We could get 30+ seats.

[gully]

4. Turn out in my "burb" was very high. It seemed more busy than in the

past presidential election. An elderly lady told me they had 900 votes already this am. when she went to vote. My mother who lives in the Twin Cities said that she had a LONG line by 7am today at her polling place. She is in a highly ethnic/working class area of the cities.

I hope it's good, and I hope we blow them the F out and I hope the announcement is made before we hit the pillow this evening.

[BuyingThyme]

2. There's some happier predictions at electoral-vote.com

[gully]

5. True, but I went with RCP because they were "right" about Bush v. Kerry.

Not that voter suppression/theft didn't play a role. The good news is I don't know of anyone who's not predicting a new Democratic house?

[trotsky]

6. RCP is notoriously right-wing.

If they're predicting Democratic control of the House, we should be deliriously happy.