Virginia: Norfolk, Portsmouth, Alexandria, Richmond, Newport News, Arlington

[CorpGovActivist]

These are large population centers, still reporting, typically Dem.

Webb may still pull this out (see locality drop down to the right): http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/index.htm

- Dave

P.S. Disenchanted military vote in Norfolk area may vote against the war.

[CorpGovActivist]

1. Virginia Beach, Too

[LittleClarkie]

55. I think VA Beach tends a bit more Republican

I know my hometown is nice and blue though (Norfolk)

[CorpGovActivist]

58. Almost Even There...

... Allen should've taken it in the high 60s.

- Dave

[TahitiNut]

2. Just what DU needs.

Yet ANOTHER Allen/Webb thread. :eyes:

[AspenRose]

3. Come on, Falls Church.

Pull it out....

[CorpGovActivist]

4. Already Reported

http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/nov2006/610.htm

- Dave

[AspenRose]

11. Good deal.

:thumbsup:

[Sparkly]

5. Could come down to a recount....

Fingers crossed!!!

[CorpGovActivist]

9. Or An Allen Indictment...

... no joke.

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

10. 1960 Illinois: JFK

; )

- Dave

[BootinUp]

6. Arlington and Loudon not done yet. n/t

[BootinUp]

7. Richmond still comin in too.

[CorpGovActivist]

22. Arlington, Loudon, Tidewater...

... still holding out on key precincts.

; )

- Dave

[bj2110]

8. Rep. Virginia Beach still ight, though, tooo

[CorpGovActivist]

12. Navy/Norfolk Anti-Bush Vote?

Could be!

- Dave

[TahitiNut]

16. Enlisted outnumber commissioned.

:evilgrin:

[CorpGovActivist]

18. Bingo

And those military spouses are smart.

- Dave

[katamaran]

28. Navy tends to go more Republican around here

Navy tends to go more Republican around here according to some of the research numbers I've seen. They aren't the ones getting killed in Iraq for the most part.

[CorpGovActivist]

29. Norfolk Breaking Webb So Far...

Hampton Roads, Newport News, Williamsburg, Virginia Beach...

http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/nov2006/l_02.htm

- Dave

[katamaran]

44. The Navy for the most part doesn't live in Norfolk

The Navy for the most part doesn't live in Norfolk. The base is in Norfolk, but the majority of the enlisted Navy personnel live in Virginia Beach (more apartments). Officers tend to gravitate towards Suffolk, Chesapeake and more affluent parts of Va Beach. Makes it hell for counting TV demographics as well.

[BootinUp]

13. WITHIN 1500 votes now!

[CorpGovActivist]

15. It's All About Which Precincts Are Left...

... and from what I can see, this is Webb's night.

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

14. Granularity Matters...

... in the border states.

Note to the DNC for 08.

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

17. Thomas Jefferson's County Went for Webb

http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/nov2006/003.htm

Nice for the "Macaca" UVA student, I'm sure!

: )

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

19. Very, Very Fine Granularity Tool

http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/nov2006/l_02.htm

- Dave

[ThomWV]

20. Well, where in hell is this late night surge we've all been waiting for?

[CorpGovActivist]

21. See #19 n/t

[demwing]

23. Big counts still waiting to come in

ARLINGTON 44 of 50 (72% Webb)
Prince William - 17 of 67 (51% Webb)
NEWPORT NEWS - 38 of 47 (53% Webb)
NORFOLK - 49 of 59 (64% Webb)
RICHMOND 48 of 68 (72% Webb)

[CorpGovActivist]

24. Precisely

http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/nov2006/l_02.htm

Those are Webb-backing areas.

- Dave

[LiberalArkie]

25. Look at the other races.. Repubs are winning all over the state

[CorpGovActivist]

26. MSNBC Just Picked up...

... on the geographical/precinct-based nuance.

: )

- Dave

[w4rma]

43. Lots of gerrymandered districts. Only tossup in VA is the Kellam-Drake race.

VA-02 (Toss) Phil Kellam (D) v. Thelma Drake Inc. (R)

[CorpGovActivist]

27. VA Voters Inside the Beltway...

... know that Allen is unfit.

Smart play by the Northern Virginia precincts to report late.

- Dave

[brettdale]

30. it seems to be too much to make up

93.66% of vote counted and hes down by 17 thousand.

[CorpGovActivist]

42. Look at the Precincts Still to Report

The late reporters aren't Allen country: http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/nov2006/l_02.htm

- Dave

[sandnsea]

31. Looking good for Webb I think

I'm getting hopeful on this one!

[CorpGovActivist]

32. Arlington Holding Out

: )

: )

: )

- Dave

[Subdivisions]

35. There you are, Dave! Welcome to the fray!

[CorpGovActivist]

38. Loving the Nailbiter Here Tonight...

... and I can tell you, I'm liking the late-reporting precincts!

This reminds me of Illinois, 1960.

; )

- Dave

[Subdivisions]

39. Aye, t'would seem those are some very blue precincts!

[CorpGovActivist]

40. They Are, and the Tidewater/Navy Area...

... is a fantastic upset. The military families in that area bodyslammed Allen.

- Dave

[FVZA_Colonel]

33. As of 10:37 EST, Webb needs .55% to tie.

N/T.

[CorpGovActivist]

34. Navy/Tidewater Voted for Former Navy Secretary, Not Dodger Allen

That may prove to be the key.

Prince William is still holding out a bunch of precincts.

- Dave

[newsdude]

36. Regardless of those precincts, this puppy goes to recount

It will likely be days, if not weeks, before we get an answer on this one ...
Strap yourselves in!

[CorpGovActivist]

37. Time for Allen's Abramoff Problem...

... to result in an indictment?

; )

- Dave

[ancient_nomad]

41. You are bringing.......

A BIG smile to my face along with a hearty chuckle.

Of course, I also have a big smile from Santorum being overrun. ;-)

[CorpGovActivist]

45. Ricky...

... has some 'splainin' to do, loss or not.

He might get an indictment all his very own!

; )

- Dave

[ancient_nomad]

50. Can't wait.....

to hear "Ricky Splainin'" things. ;_)

[Catherine Vincent]

46. Gawd, I hope so.

I want this former republican to WIN!!

[pdxmom]

47. Waiting for Loudoun, too. They still have a big number to bring

in. This is definitely going to be a nail-biter.

[CorpGovActivist]

48. There Are Some Savvy...

... local officials, holding back and making Allen country report first.

- Dave

[FVZA_Colonel]

49. Well, it's back down to Webb needing 0.55% to tie.

N/T.

[CorpGovActivist]

51. Recount + Indictment for Allen?

Allen's Abramoff Problem seems just about ripe.

- Dave

[ancient_nomad]

52. Webb is closing in...

Allen 49.50%
Webb 49.29%

[CorpGovActivist]

53. The Granular Tool ...

... tells the tale. Allen is going to be behind by the end of the night, I bet.

http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/nov2006/l_02.htm

- Dave

[Straight Shooter]

54. Let it be so.

Virginia is my home state. I want Virginia to be true blue. I'm so disappointed that Webb isn't blowing Felix totally out of the water.

Thanks for the updates, CGA. Hope springs eternal. :patriot:

[CorpGovActivist]

56. Tidewater!!!!

Look at the Tidewater (heavily Navy) areas (e.g., Norfolk, Hampton Roads, Newport News, Portsmouth, Williamsburg, etc.): http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/nov2006/l_02.htm

So help me, that should have been solid red, and it went for someone who actually served!!!

- Dave

[TahitiNut]

59. Well, that indicates that Webb will pick up about ...

3,000 net votes in RICHMOND CITY
250 net votes in NEWPORT NEWS CITY
1,000 net votes in PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY
1,000 net votes in FAIRFAX COUNTY


That'll probably pull Webb close to even.
I'd say the difference will be less than 0.2% ... maybe less than 0.1%.

[CorpGovActivist]

60. I Think Webb Takes Numerical Lead Tonight

I really do.

- Dave

[kerry-is-my-prez]

57. 19% of the red precincts aren't in and about 40% of the blue ones aren't

and about 9% of the purple areas that lean a bit more red than blue.

[CorpGovActivist]

61. Localities Matter...

... and Virginia is flippable for 08.

Run Mark Warner as Veep.

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

62. MSNBC Just Said It...

Virginia is flippable in 08.

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

63. 20 Precincts Still Outstanding - Webb Country!!!

Webb pulls this out tonight; maybe not beyond the .5% automatic, no-cost-to-the-RNC margin, but then the RNC looks like it's not gracious (and Macaca's Abramoff Problem becomes national news, I bet).

- Dave

[Blackhatjack]

65. Will Allen Pursue Recount If Indicted? Just wondering....

How do you effectively push for a recount after you are indicted? I predict it may be a moot issue once he is indicted. Otherwise, he expends time and effort to have Kaine appoint a DEM appointee to the position.

[CorpGovActivist]

72. And Doing Damage to the RNC in the Process

; )

And setting the ball up for Pelosi and Reid to spike it, on the culture of corruption thing - by extending out another sore loser recount.

- Dave

[JMDEM]

64. 12:21 AM -- Webb trails by 1868 with 0.8% of vote uncounted

According to VA State website. CNN says Webb's ahead.

Either way -- recount.

Nobody's answered this yet -- what's going on with the absentee ballots? Provisional ballots? (Is there such a thing in VA?)

[troublemaker]

66. 0.8% of *precincts* not votes -- if absentees are counted as a precinct within the district they cou

could be pretty big or pretty small precincts -- they said there were 30,000 absentees in Fairfax county.

[Blackhatjack]

67. MSNBC mentioned 30,000 absentee ballots .... I assume not counted yet

[troublemaker]

68. wohoo! Webbs goes ahaed on VA State site

Webb 1,148,750
Allen 1,146,952

Precincts Reporting: 2425 of 2443 (99.26%)

[FVZA_Colonel]

71. It's at about 1728 now.

N/T.

[CorpGovActivist]

73. I Have a Link to VA Election Law...

... in my journal tonight.

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

69. Webb in the Lead Now

http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/index.htm

The timeline of this thread (and others) show why the localities matter.

- Dave

[troublemaker]

70. Precincts Reporting: 2425 of 2443 (99.26%)

[troublemaker]

74. IGNORE CNN the totals are not inverted!

the AP and State site obviously included some precincts at different times, but the numbers were NEVER inverted

[troublemaker]

75. Carville says provisionals haven't been considered yet

[CorpGovActivist]

82. Schumer Echoed This...

... this morning on MSNBC.

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

76. Military Families in Tidewater...

... not to beat a dead horse, but - folks - those areas, by all rights, should have lined up behind Allen. They didn't.

The DNC should parse these results carefully. Virginia is flippable - with its 13 Electoral College votes - in 08.

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

77. See OP Timestamp

Virginia and its 13 Electoral College votes are the Dems' to lose now. Tim Kaine as Governor, Webb in the Senate, and Mark Warner as Veep - it's a lock.

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

78. Arlington's Final Precinct Came in...

... and boosted Webb's lead, as expected.

- Dave

[CorpGovActivist]

79. Ya Gotta Believe!!!!!!!!

I had friends around the country bailing at 9:30 last night.

"LOOK AT THE PRECINCTS THAT HAVEN'T REPORTED!!!!"

"Dave, give it up."

"NO! HAVE YOU ACTUALLY LOOKED AT THE GRANULAR DATA?!?!?"

(Mind you, some of these people should know better than to ignore the data - especially with drinks and steaks riding on this.)

; )

- Dave

[DemReadingDU]

80. Yeh Webb!

What happened in Tennessee? I so wanted Harold Ford to win.

Would you have any knowledge about Corker involved in any scandals?

[CorpGovActivist]

81. Corker's out of...

... my ken.

- Dave