The 6 VA precincts yet to report; will they flip the Senate race to

[ProgressiveEconomist]

George Allen? My guess is no; because there was a 50-50 Webb-Allen split among the first 57 of 58 precincts in Loundon County, the largest jurisdiction by far. What do you think?

The official Commonwealth of Virginia results website has Webb ahead by 8,359 votes, or 0.36 percentage points, with 6 precincts yet to report, in 5 of 134 jurisdictions:

The site was refreshing itself every two minutes or so all election eve but now has read the same for five hours.

From http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/nov2006/l_02.htm at 8am (timestamp 3:26 am)

Webb percentage among reporting precincts, jurisdiction, and # of outstanding precincts

40 HALIFAX COUNTY - 1 of 22
41 ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTY - 1 of 13
46 JAMES CITY COUNTY - 2 of 16
50 LOUDOUN COUNTY - 1 of 58
56 FAIRFAX CITY - 1 of 7

Totals
1,162,327 49.22% G F Allen (R)
1,170,686 49.58% J H Webb Jr (D)
26,098 1.11% G G Parker (IG)
2,330 0.10% Write Ins
2,361,441 Votes Cast; 2437 of 2443 Precincts Reporting

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Here's all the detail the site has on the 5 jurisdictions, sorted by number of votes already reported:

LOUDOUN COUNTY - details
Allen: 36,968 48.69%
Webb: 37,994 50.04%
Parker: 853 1.12%
Write-in: 109 0.14%
Totals: 75,924 57 of 58 = 98.28% of precincts reporting

JAMES CITY COUNTY - details
Allen: 13,818 53.31%
Webb: 11,834 45.66%
Parker: 227 0.88%
Write-in: 39 0.15%
Totals: 25,918 14 of 16 = 87.50% of precincts reporting

ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTY - details
Allen: 6,984 57.26%
Webb: 5,050 41.40%
Parker: 144 1.18%
Write-in: 19 0.16%
Totals: 12,197 12 of 13 = 92.31% of precincts reporting

HALIFAX COUNTY -details
Allen: 5,881 58.87%
Webb: 3,980 39.84%
Parker: 112 1.12%
Write-in: 16 0.16%
Totals: 9,989 21 of 22 = 95.45% of precincts reporting

FAIRFAX CITY - details
Allen: 3,182 42.68%
Webb: 4,187 56.16%
Parker: 87 1.17%
Write-in: 0 0.00%
Totals: 7,456 6 of 7 = 85.71% of precincts reporting

[ProgressiveEconomist]

1. Cross Halifax off; it's Webb by 0.29 percentage points

.with 5 precincts still out in 4 jurisdictions of 134. Halifax was the most pro-Allen jurisdiction of the 5 listed in the OP.

From http://sos.mt.gov/ELB/elections/2006November7General.htm , 9:01 am timestamp

Totals
1,162,497 49.25% G F Allen (R)
1,169,356 49.54% J H Webb Jr (D)
26,108 1.11% G G Parker (IG)
2,332 0.10% Write Ins
2,360,293 Votes Cast; 2438 of 2443 precincts reporting

[jefferson_dem]

2. Here are some details on the outstanding votes ->

Found this post on raisingkaine --

LOUDOUN COUNTY - details i precint tiny for webb

JAMES CITY COUNTY - details 2 precints, big for allen

ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTY - details 1 precinct, for allen

HALIFAX COUNTY - details 1 precinct allen leads

allen will gain 500 to 1000 votes from the missing precincts, and will have to make up 7000 votes on the recount.

This is great news!!!!! Congratulations to all who worked hard on this campaign, and congrats to all who voted.

http://www.raisingkaine.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5900

[ProgressiveEconomist]

4. Thanks for the link. The detail on the jurisdictions matches what's in

my OP, but the 500-1000 vote estimate for the total impact on Webb I have not seen before.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

3. Cross off Loudon; it's Webb by 0.30 pntage points w 4 precincts

still out in 3 jurisdictions of 134.

From http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/nov2006/l_02.htm , 9:31 am timestamp

Totals
1,164,667 49.25% G F Allen (R)
1,171,813 49.55% J H Webb Jr (D)
26,160 1.11% G G Parker (IG)
2,341 0.10% Write Ins
2,364,981 Votes Cast; 2439 of 2443 precincts reporting

[ProgressiveEconomist]

5. Time stamp on the official results has been stuck on "10:01am"

.for almost an hour now.

Results are still the same as in post #3: Webb by 7,046 votes or 0.30 percentage points, with 4 precincts still out in 3 tiny jurisdictions of 134, with all major jurisdictions having reported.

The only change is a new arithmetic error in the total votes cast: the "5" should be a "4" as it was in post #3.

From http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/nov2006/l_02.htm , 10:01 am timestamp

Totals
1,164,667 49.25% G F Allen (R)
1,171,813 49.55% J H Webb Jr (D)
26,160 1.11% G G Parker (IG)
2,341 0.10% Write Ins
2,365,981 (sic) Votes Cast; 2439 of 2443 precincts reporting

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's all the detail the site has on the 3 jurisdictions, sorted by number of votes already reported:

JAMES CITY COUNTY - details
Allen: 13,818 53.31%
Webb: 11,834 45.66%
Parker: 227 0.88%
Write-in: 39 0.15%
Totals: 25,918 14 of 16 = 87.50% of precincts reporting

ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTY - details
Allen: 6,984 57.26%
Webb: 5,050 41.40%
Parker: 144 1.18%
Write-in: 19 0.16%
Totals: 12,197 12 of 13 = 92.31% of precincts reporting

FAIRFAX CITY - details
Allen: 3,182 42.68%
Webb: 4,187 56.16%
Parker: 87 1.17%
Write-in: 0 0.00%
Totals: 7,456 6 of 7 = 85.71% of precincts reporting