There seems to be some confusion about the Senate. Here's where things stand. (EDITED 1PM ET)

[Skinner]

The vast majority of people here understand what is going on. But based on some of the posts this morning, I think there are a few people who are misinformed about the Senate. The bottom line: WE DON'T HAVE ANY WIGGLE ROOM.

Right now, the Senate results are split: 50 Democrats and 49 Republicans.

One race -- Virginia -- is still undecided. Things are looking good for us there, but it's not over yet.

Bernie Sanders (I) and Joe Lieberman (I) ARE ALREADY INCLUDED in the above tally of 50 Democrats. Both indicated during the campaign that they will caucus with the Democrats. We need both of them, period.

Republicans only need 50 seats to keep the Senate, because Vice President Cheney is the tiebreaker.

Democrats need 51 seats to take the Senate, which means we need to VIRGINIA. We don't have any wiggle room. If we lose Virginia, then the Republicans keep the Senate.

That is where things stand.

[stop the bleeding]

1. yep and whoever takes the Senate will still have to

have the other side to get key legislation passed.

[Jack from Charlotte]

47. It really takes 60 votes in The Senate to get anything done.....

and that ain't happening regardless as to Montana and Virginia outcomes. But we're fighting for subpoena power and the ability to control the agenda.

For example..... Put the Minimum Wage Increase up and make The Moron Party vote against it.

[stop the bleeding]

52. yep Subpoena power baby !!!

I wasn't exactly clear in my previous post - When I said the winning side will need the other it was in reference to the 60 vote majority you highlighted - hence both sides will need a little of the other no matter who ends winning.

[crikkett]

69. but then, there's the "nuclear option"

...remember that?

[keithjx]

2. I'd clarify by adding

that the reason we need both for the 51-49 lead is because a 50-50 tie would be broken by DICK Cheney. Most folks already know this, but I thought I'd add it anyway.

Still pulling my fingernails out here in Montana. Ugh.
Thanks for everything, Skinner!
KJ

[Skinner]

6. Good point. I added it. (nt)

[stray cat]

3. Thanks for the summary!

[Coventina]

4. Which makes the stakes incredibly high. I hope we have people watching the counts

I expect Republican dirty tricks a la 2000 & 2004

[Junkdrawer]

5. And if either Liberman or Nelson of Neb. switch to Republican....

It's a 50/50 share, assuming that VA and MT go Dem.

[Skinner]

7. I don't think either will switch.

Of course, if the Republicans sweeten the pot enough, anything is possible. But I don't think it makes sense for Democrats to switch to Republicans after a huge Democratic win.

The last time we saw a lot of party switching was in 1994, when a bunch of Dems switched to Republican in the wake of a huge Republican win.

[Junkdrawer]

11. Look for both to be "promoted" if they stay Dem....

Not a happy thought.

[Skinner]

13. I don't know about Nelson.

But I think Joe is probably getting his ass kissed a lot today. He'll probably get whatever he wants.

[robinlynne]

32. Isn't it disgusting. Can you imagine lieberman having that deciding power?

Then imagine Lamont with that same power...

[Scriptor Ignotus]

42. you know

Lieberman should have been our country's VP in 2000, right?

[IronLionZion]

43. An Inconvenient Truth nt

[populistdriven]

17. Thanks Skinner!

[theboss]

9. There's a less than 1 percent chance of that happening

The Dems can offer them both so so much more. And with the House going Dem, there is no reason to switch now.

[OKNancy]

12. That's not going to happen

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

22. It more likely that Snowe or Collins in Maine would become a Democrat or Indy

Why would any elected official change parties and become a republican after this kind of thrashing?

OTOH, these women have a lot of reasons to change parties. They are both more Rockefeller republicans than Bush republicans and New England has become very blue.

[Ediacara]

33. I doubt they'll switch

In fact, I'd expect some moderate Republicans (mostly in the House) to switch to being Democrats in a reversal of what happened in 1994.

[TwilightZone]

49. Take it from a long-time Nebraskan...

Nelson isn't switching parties.

He has no reason to do so, as his support as a D in Nebraska is as high among Republicans as it is with Democrats. His approval rating is higher than Hagel's.

[NashVegas]

8. Here's Why I Won't Be Bothered If It Comes to a Tie

Anytime Cheney has to come in and be the tie-breaker, the Republican White House and Senate will have to take full responsibility for passing whatever bill the Dems stand against. When it comes to such cases, if Dems stand strong even knowing we'll be defeated, that's one bill that we'll be able to use against them in '08. Dems MUST hold together in those cases.

But yeah, taking the majority would be better.

[hvn_nbr_2]

28. Here's why I WILL be bothered if it comes to a tie

The majority gets every committee chair and sets the agenda.

As far as the situation with individual bills that you describe, there are enough Dinos that it would almost never happen as you describe. I really can't imagine all the Dems standing together and all the Pubs standing together on the opposite side of any legislation. The only time that will happen is to set up control of the Senate.

[phyrkrakr]

30. And another reason to be worried...

Holy Joe could be the tiebreaker, instead of Cheney. Now isn't THAT scary.

[newyawker99]

56. Hi phyrkrakr!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Brazenly Liberal]

10. True. But here's why I'm celebrating NOW

I realize everything you've said is true. No wiggle room. The numbers look good, but they're so close it could all go south. Pretty skeery, all in all.

But I'm celebrating NOW, anyway. Because:

1. There's nothing I can do at this point to affect the outcome.
2. If the Dems do take the Senate, I won't have gotten a headache, a sour stomache and crappy mood for nothing.
3. If the Dems don't take the Senate, I'm going to feel like shit, true, but why start feeling like shit before I have to? Why not feel a little joy while I can?
4. The governors. Taking those gubernatorial races is less sexy than taking the Senate, but it's a big and important win. Just ask the Gerrymandering Old Pricks what their biggest worry is and you'll hear the word "redistricting" whispered in terror. BBWWWAAAAHHHAAAAAHHHAAAAAA!!!!!

[Arkansas Granny]

40. I like the way you think. I'll be disappointed if VA and MT go

repub, but I'm still feeling pretty good today.

[Turn CO Blue]

48. You bring up an excellent point -- redistricting!

Bwahahahaha!

[Cha]

14. Thanks for that.

That's going to be one close Senate.

[LTR]

15. Any chance of a Rethug pulling a Jeffords?

Or atoning for Nighthorse?

Maybe someone will want to be on the winning side.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

24. Snowe or Collins in Maine

They just saw Lincoln Chaffee get kicked out of office. They are pro-choice and not a good fit in the modern republican party.

They fit much better in the Rockefeller republican party, which doesn't exist any more. Trends in New England are very bad for republicans these days.

[NorthernSpy]

34. Snowe especially will vote with us on a number of things...

... and if we play our cards right, we can use this shifting balance in the Senate to force the Republican right to move toward the center; even without Virginia and Montana in our camp (although I think that we'll have those states after the dust has finally settled), we can put together voting majorities on quite a few issues.

[chefgirl]

35. Won't happen

Trends in New England are very bad for republicans these days.

You're right about that much, but Maine is not Rhode Island..there are some stubborn Yankees in this state AND they LOVE Olympia Snowe, so there is no reason for her to even consider flipping parties. She's been around for a hundred years and she'll be around for a hundred more.

Susan Collins, on the other hand, doesn't have the clout that Olympia has, but I still don't see her feeling pressured to flip. She's too well respected here.

-chef-

[Neecy]

16. Harry Reid must have some good numbers...

I'm on his mailing list, and got an email this morning. Here's how it began:

Tonight wouldn't have happened without you. I wanted to send you a note of thanks as soon as possible. Your efforts, your activism and your dollars helped do the impossible. Democrats will be the Majority in the Senate.

[crispini]

18. It also, effectively, takes 60 votes to get anything DONE in the Senate

Filibuster, you know. So, you know, whoever wins is going to have a hard time.

[still_one]

19. and that is why people already throwing Lieberman away obviously DO NOT

understand the process

THIS MEANS WE SET THE AGENDA

The only correction I would like to make is that WE HAVE ALREADY WON BOTH HOUSES

[progree]

36. No, we haven't won the Senate. Dems ahead in MT 0.44% and VA 0.34%

> The only correction I would like to make is that WE HAVE ALREADY WON BOTH HOUSES <

No, we haven't won the Senate. Dems ahead in MT 0.44% and VA 0.34% as of 1015a ET, both races with 99% precincts. Nobody impartial has called either of these races.

That almost certainly means there will be counts of absentee ballots and provisional ballots and good chance of recounts. Dems need both to control senate.

[Qutzupalotl]

51. The nice thing about that is, both apparent losers are tainted.

Macaca and Abramoff's bitch.

I am confident Webb will pull away once provisional ballots are counted from Fairfax county. I believe Allen will concede early to avoid a lot of scrutiny about his supporters' suppression tactics. As for Tester, it looks good for us to be a little bit ahead of someone implicated in the biggest corruption scandal in history. Hard to defend the indefensible.

[riverwalker]

20. thanks

After a long night some of just woke up and not sure whats going on.
Skinner did you know the time stamps on the posts are goofy?

[Skinner]

21. The timestamps look correct to me.

What's the problem?

[Catherine Vincent]

23. Let's hope Lieberman caucus with the Democrats.

[Tesha]

25. This would be an ideal time to once again extend overtures to...

This would be an ideal time to once again extend overtures to
Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, both Republican Senators
from Maine.

They're both nominal moderates, and they both would probably
rather be in the majority than the minority. And switching
either of them would:

1. Defuse a lot of the threat posed by LIEberman.

2. Switch the New England delegation almost entirely blue
save the two yahoo Senators from New Hampshire.

Heck, it would even be worth extending a hand to John Sununu,
Republican Senator from NH. He'd almost certainly reject the
offer, but you just never know...

Tesha

[Marie26]

26. This gives Lieberman so much power.

And I don't trust him for a second.

[The Backlash Cometh]

38. Do you see Lieberman voting to subpoena the White House?

I sure don't. However, I hope there will be bitter Republicans who do understand the moral necessity.

[NorthernSpy]

41. yes, but the situation also empowers the moderate-to-liberal wing of the Republicans...

... over the conservatives and the hard right. We can use that.

[Oak2004]

70. I wasn't aware there was a liberal wing left in the Republican Party

and I used to be a part of that wing.

Some dangling moderates in the NE, yes, but liberals?

We're gone (barring perhaps an isolated holdout or two).

[sleepyhead]

44. I don't either.

He'll go with whoever gives him the better deal. And I don't put it past him to hold a long-term grudge and play both sides off against each other. It could be ugly.

[sandnsea]

27. Webb did claim victory last night

I don't know if you saw it, but he did. That's partly where claiming the Virginia victory is coming from. As to Montana, the Yellowstone ballots were already counted once and Tester was ahead at that time. There's still a few ballots to count, but that race looks very good.

[Bonobo]

29. And even that is counting on Sore Loserman as an ally and it is not 100%.

[Mad_Dem_X]

31. Thank you, Skinner

I was getting confused by all the posts here. Thanks for laying the facts out.

[Sydnie]

37. OT - Skinner, why are we still on level 3 or 4?

Is traffic this morning still so high? Just wondering when we will get MyDU post replies feature back. Things are moving very fast, not as fast as last night though, and it makes it a bit harder to keep up with responses and threads.

Thanks in advance for the answer and for all you guys did last night to keep us up and running so smoothly.

[Skinner]

39. Good question.

I'll switch us down to Level 3 and see what happens.

[Sydnie]

45. thank you!

Seems to still be smooth from here. :hug:

[Mr_Spock]

46. Thanks for clarifying this!

I was beginning to wonder is some people knew the total is always 100 - lol

[Nikki Stone 1]

50. Thank you, Skinner. I was looking for this info when I got up this morning

I also thank you for having this board available and running so well last night. I didn't post much but read a whole lot. It helped me keep track of what was occuring.

[Dorian Gray]

53. Thanks for the breakdown, Skinner.

Question: Is there any chance that Sanders or Lieberman would break ranks with the Democrats and caucus with the Repubs? A realistic chance, not a pie in the sky chance? That would affect our lead greatly, and it worries me.

[The Magistrate]

54. An Excellent Summary, Sir

For better or worse, Mr. Lieberman is now our friend, and we must live with it. The business is a cut-throat one.

[doublethink]

55. Thanks Skinner this is the #1 thing on my mind out here ...

too in Cali this morn, a lot of us slept in, and bingo this is the first thread I clicked on today! Ya made it easy! Fight On! :)
:kick:

[progressivebydesign]

57. The repubs are going to do a Florida 2000 production in Virginia..

count on it.. the mobil homes are rolling, the bumper stickers and signs are being printed, the Supreme Court is being briefed. They aren't going to give up Virginia without a fight. That will be the battleground in this situation. Be prepared for press conferences any time now accusing the Dems of not honoring the troops because they want to declare victory in Va before the overseas ballots are counted. I'm sure James Baker is pulling strings again...

[Make7]

58. k & r.

[wildflower]

59. But if it's a tie, do the Republicans chair the committees?

I.e. if it's a tie and Cheney is a tie-breaker? Does he count in the assignment of committee chairs to a party?

Thanks, Skinner.

wildflower

What a wonderful day for America.

[Norquist Nemesis]

60. Looks like we've got MT!!!

Tester was just on CNN declaring victory. :woohoo:

[helderheid]

61. I was confused. thanks for this Skinner - looks like we can pull this off

[Phillycat]

62. What happens if there's a tie re: Senate Majority leader?

Is it still Hastert since Cheney breaks the tie?

Sorry for stupid question...

[progree]

66. A 50-50 tie means Repugs have Majority leader and committee chairs

A 50-50 tie means Repugs have Majority leader and committee chairs
According to Skinner (see post #0 of this thread) and others. And of course Cheney breaks ties in any 50-50 vote.

Since we've won Montana, apparently (someone said there's only one county left (
Meager County) and only 2000 people live there and the latest (1233p ET) is a 3128 edge for Montana, and CNBC, AP, and ABC have called it for Tester, it looks over there. The 3128 edge is a 0.78% spread.

So we've got a 50 Dems (including the two independents) 49 Repugs and 1 undecided (Virginia)

Now if Webb maintains his lead in Virginia and wins the recount we have 51-49 and control. Currently, 1248 ET, he has 6704 vote edge (0.28%).

If Allen somehow wins, then it is 50 Dem 50 Repugs and Repugs have Majority leader and committee chairs

[Phillycat]

68. THanks, that's what I thought...

had very little sleep last night, you understand. :blush: :hi:

[Radio_Lady]

63. Skinner, you might consider pinning this at the top before it gets lost.

Thanks.

[uppityperson]

64. thanks, waiting and watching impatiently. Count the votes, then announce

finish counting the votes, accurately, then announce the results.

[melody]

65. Montana just racked up on our side

And barring any fast footwork in Virginia, Webb has a lock on that.

Although, these ARE Republicans, so I don't expect them to play fair. We still need our eye
on the bottom line.

[progree]

67. CNBC, AP, ABC calls MT for Testor - per another thread here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=2600730&mesg_id=2600730