What are the prospects for the 2008 senate election?

[Donald Ian Rankin]

The Congress and the Presidency are obviously both up for grabs, but how many of the Senate seats coming up for reelection in 2008 are Dems, how many are Reps, and how many might change hands each way?

[MannyGoldstein]

1. Depends On

1. Whether the Democrats grow a spine in the next two years
2. How quickly the Republicans clean house.

[cali]

2. Nope.

Regardless of those two, prospects for dem Senate pickups in 2008 are excellent. Repukes have far more seats up than dems, and some of those are vulnerable.

[fishwax]

3. Repubs will be defending 21 seats, Dems only 12

So we stand a good chance of increasing our majority. Many of the defending Repubs are in the south, where we proved this time around we can be competitive. TN will be up again, and maybe this time we can close the gap.

Two seats repubs are defending are in traditional blue states (Oregon and Minnesota), and there will be repub defenses in states where we've made inroads recently, including New Mexico, Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming, and Oklahoma.

We will be defending seats in some red states, too, such as South Dakota, Louisiana, and Arkansas (though Arkansas showed up well for dems last night).

All in all, I think the prognosis looks good.

Here's a link to the wikipedia page, with a map of the races ... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2008

[tnlurker]

9. Lamar has only been in for one term

He won for the first time in 2002. Prior to that he was a frequent presidential candidate and two term governor for Tn. He is up there in age though. He will be 68 in 2008. Although that is not really that old for senator

[fishwax]

11. thanks for the correction

I edited my post to reflect that. I was just thinking he'd been *in* forever because he's been *around* forever, and I was thinking of him from the first bush administration.

Thanks :hi:

[Strelnikov_]

4. Excellent. The Reich Is Defending 21 Senate Seats vs 12 Democratic In 08

This fact is probably part of the reason for all the long faces on Reich quislings.

Short of a Democratic collapse, there is little chance of the Reich making gains in 08 when defending 9 seats more than the opposition.

Reich Defense (21)

Alaska - Stevens
Oregon – Gordon
Idaho – Craig
Wyoming – Enzi
Colorado – Allard
New Mexico - Domenici
Nebraska – Hagel
Kansas - Roberts
Oklahoma – Inhofe
Texas – Cornyn
Minnesota - Coleman
Kentucky – McConnell
Virginia – Warner
Tennessee – Alexander
North Carolina – Dole
South Carolina – Graham
Mississippi – Cochran
Alabama – Sessions
Georgia – Chambliss
New Hampshire – Sununu
Maine – Collins

Democrats Defense (12)

Montana – Baucus
South Dakota – Johnson
Iowa – Harkin
Illinois – Durbin
Arkansas – Pryor
Louisiana – Landrieu
West Virginia – Rockefeller
Michigan – Levin
Delaware - Biden
New Jersey - Lautenberg
Rhode Island – Reed
Massachusetts – Kerry

[Strelnikov_]

5. Dupe

[KingFlorez]

6. They look great

The only seat we might have to defend is Johnson in South Dakota. We have good shots at getting Minnesota, Colorado, Georgia, New Hampshire (New Hampshire turned really blue this year) and Maine (Collins might retire).

[Ediacara]

7. Very good IMHO

Depending on retirements and national climate, we have good chances for pickups in OR, CO, NM, TN, VA, NC, NH, and ME. The Republicans have less shiney prospects and I'd assume would try to focus on MT, SD, AR, LA, and NJ.

[fishwax]

8. Even those don't look that promising for the Repubs

Max Baucus won easily his last time out, and with Tester's win last night Montana doesn't look bad for the Dems. South Dakota might be a problem, but then Thune did win in '02 and Herseth won again state-wide last night. And the abortion ban failed there, so maybe things are looking up for dems in south dakota. Mark Pryor is a popular incumbent in Arkansas, and that state showed well last night.

I think Louisiana will probably be a republican pickup, if the conventional wisdom about post-katrina demographic shifts holds true. She barely won in '02 anyway. And New Jersey, too, might be close.

[ellenfl]

10. regardless, we need to start ramping up now.

there are a very few repugs that i would not object to but more that i would like to see go down. we need to start on their opponents campaigns now. perhaps find a place (moveon?) to bank some funds for dem challengers campaigns.

2008 could be an even better year than 2006 even if the repugs kept the presidency. of course that all depends on how the dems act in the next 2 years.

ellen fl