I'm doing the Virginia math right now: JIM WEBB WILL WIN, BUT MAY FACE RECOUNT!!!!!

[originalpckelly]

Isle of Wight has one of the precincts not reporting in yet. This is a county which went to Bush with 62.56% of the vote in 2004.

So far this has still gone to George Allen, but it was a much closer margin, Jim Webb got 10% more of the vote in this election so far.

The precise precinct that is still outstanding (Raynor 0505), only has 177 votes. This did go mildly Republican in last year's governors race. In other words it won't hurt Webb's 8000+ vote lead.

In the other county which has outstanding precincts, James City County, the outstanding precincts aren't significant.

My conclusion is that Jim Webb's lead is solid, unless they find some sort of major 8000 vote error, it will not go to George Allen. However, if Allen wants to be a dick, Webb's lead is not enough to avoid a free recount (if Allen requests it.)

Recount: If Allen wants it.
Win: Jim Webb will probably win!!!!!!!

[originalpckelly]

1. Here is the county by county list of votes for the fellas:

http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/nov2006/l_02.htm

You can click on the counties, and then you can see the precise precincts.

[Virginia Dare]

2. Allen has the voter suppression problem hanging over his head...

he should be gracious and concede for that reason alone.

[The_Casual_Observer]

3. Webb has already won. This is some kind of half ass face saving

Considering the uphill climb needed by Webb to win in that place, 8000 votes is a hell of a lot.

[longship]

4. And the canvass will not make a substantive change, either.

Law of large numbers, the errors will tend to cancel each other out.

7-8 thousand votes is way too many for a recount to substantively change. The usual difference, even if there is bias in the sample, is a few hundred votes.

Webb's going to be going to the Senate.

[phiddle]

5. Could the Va. Dem Party sue Allen for vote suppression?

(Quietly agreeing to drop the suit if he doesn't recount.)

[originalpckelly]

6. Yes, they have audio recordings of Allen voter suppression...

or voter suppression which was in favor of Allen.

I know, I heard one of the recordings myself.

So in other words, I think that the only one keeping Allen in the race is that total dick Ed Gillespie.

[FSogol]

7. Right now Webb is ahead by 7,306 votes. The difference is

.025% which is under 1/2 or 1% (0.5%). There will be a State funded recount whether Allen requests it or not. The recount will be completed and certified on 11/14/06. In last years AG race McConnell defeated Democrat Craig Deeds by 700 votes. The recount only rechecked the totals submitted to each district. Deeds went to court to have everything recounted, but lost. After the recount, the margin of difference was 400 votes and McConnell became the State AG. Allen does not have a chance.

[originalpckelly]

8. I know...

He's just being a total asshole.


May I just say, y'all have a lot of hassle in your elections. :-)

[soothsayer]

11. In Virginia, there are no automatic recounts. (where do you see

otherwise?

Quote from the Commonwealth of Virginia State Board of Elections, dated November 2006, "Virginia Recount Basics":

In Virginia, there are no automatic recounts. Only the apparent losing candidate can ask for a recount, and only if the difference between the apparent winning and losing candidate is 1% or less of the total votes cast for the two candidates. The apparent loser cannot request a recount until after the election is certified.

The State Board of Elections certifies the election results for all federal offices (Presidential Electors, U.S. Senate and U.S. Congress), state offices (Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General and General Assembly seats) and any offices shared by two or more localities. The State Board of Elections will meet to certify the results of the November 7, 2006 election on Monday, November 27, 2006. An apparent losing candidate has ten days from the certification date to request a recount, so the time frame for filing a request for a recount for this election is November 27, 2006, through December 7, 2006.

An apparent losing candidate requesting a recount of an election for a statewide office must file a petition requesting a recount with the Circuit Court of the City of Richmond. Any candidate requesting a recount for any other office must file a recount petition with the Circuit Court where that candidate is registered to vote.

<snip>

The counties and cities involved in a recount are responsible for paying the costs of the recount if the margin of difference between the apparent winning and losing candidates is a half of a percent or less or the candidate requesting the recount is declared the winner. Otherwise, the candidate who requested the recount must pay the costs of the proceedings.

[Lurking Dem]

12. My understanding

was there is no automatic recount in Virginia. It has to be requested.

[FSogol]

13. You are correct. Allen must request it.

The State pays if it is w/in 0.5% and Allen pays if the difference is greater. Here is the Statute:

§ 24.2-800. Recounts in all elections.

A. The provisions of this article apply to all elections held in the Commonwealth.

B. When there is between any candidate apparently nominated or elected and any candidate apparently defeated a difference of not more than one percent of the total vote cast for the two such candidates as determined by the State Board or the electoral board, the defeated candidate may appeal from the determination of the State Board or the electoral board for a recount of the vote as set forth in this article. In an election of electors for the President and Vice President of the United States, the presidential candidate shall represent the vice-presidential candidate and slate of electors and be the party to the recount for purposes of this article.

C. When there is between the vote for a question and the vote against a question a difference of not more than fifty votes or one percent of the total vote cast for and against the question as determined by the State Board or the electoral board, whichever is greater, fifty or more voters qualified to vote on the question, by signing and filing their petition, may appeal from the determination of the State Board or the electoral board for a recount of the vote as set forth in this article.

(1979, c. 293, § 24.1-249; 1981, c. 570; 1993, c. 641.)

[soothsayer]

14. He has Nov 27 - Dec 7 to request one

An apparent losing candidate has ten days from the certification date to request a recount, so the time frame for filing a request for a recount for this election is November 27, 2006, through December 7, 2006.

[leftchick]

9. he is a dick

a very small one but a dick none the less. We will have a recount and no declared winner until Dec 8 or so.

[qanda]

10. As much as I dislike Allen

If it were the other way around we would certainly be calling for a recount.

[americanstranger]

15. One other thing to consider here...

The Macaca camp is now saying they haven't made up their minds (such as they are) whether they're going to call for a recount.

There's a reason for that.

Remember, they pulled a lot of slimy crap in the final days of the campaign - which would definitely be considered voter fraud. The FBI is already looking into what went on in Virginia.

If Allen decides to go for the recount, that would give the FBI plenty of time to look at relevant documents - phone records, campaign disbursements, all kinds of stuff.

It could be that the only way that Allen can avoid facing big-time criminal charges (not that he won't be facing them anyway).

- as