Debunking the Six-Year turnover fallacy

[Coexist]

from ShortBus at DailyKos.

This is really important, because they are doing all they can to minimize this Blue Tsunami and take the wind out of the Democrats sails.

Your homework:

- Read this
- Memorize a couple of the main facts - especially the section about Wilson and Bush's commonality
- Gently challenge everyone you encounter who attempts to spread this fallacy.

Remember:

- False statements repeated often do not equal Facts.

Thank you.

There is a talking point going around that this win "isn't significant because the House always turns on a second term President." Charles Krauthammer was one of the first to start on this with this kool aid-inducing, party pooping article at the Post. The wingnuts have promptly jumped on it as they trying to pysch themselves out of their dashing defeat.

Figuring this was a typical Republican scramble for excuses, I crunched the numbers. I'm sure everyone is surprised that this statement isn't all it's cracked up to be...

Over the past 100 years, 11 Presidents have served more than one term:

Theodore Roosevelt (R) 1901-1909
Woodrow Wilson (D) 1913-1921
Calvin Coolidge (R) 1923-1929
Franklin Delano Roosevelt (D) 1933-1945
Harry S. Truman (D) 1945-1953
Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) 1953-1961
Lyndon B. Johnson (D) 1963-1969
Richard Nixon (R) 1969-1974
Ronald Reagan (R) 1981-1989
Bill Clinton (D) 1993-2001
George W. Bush (R) 2001-2008

Theodore Roosevelt, Coolidge, FDR, and LBJ all served entirely with both a friendly House and Senate. Nixon had to contend with both houses opposing him his entire presidential career. Excluding W., that leaves us with five multi-term Presidents that had to deal with a mix on the hill:

Wilson: 6 years with both the House and Senate and two years opposing both of them. A Democrat, the Republicans seized control of both houses in his second term.

Truman: Also a Democrat, served during a very contentious time in American politics. Truman started with the Senate also being held by the Democrats, but the House was Republican controlled. In 1947, both houses turned Republican, but then teetered back to Democratic control the next cycle. Then in his last two years, the Republicans won control again of both the Senate and House.

Eisenhower: 2 years with both chambers, 6 years both opposing him. He started with Republican majority in both chambers, but the Democrats took control the next cycle and continued to gain momentum throughout his presidency.

Reagan: Never had a friendly House. Though 6 of his 8 years the Republicans had control of the Senate.

Clinton: Had to deal with opposition in both the House and Senate for all but two of his eight years.

There you have it... Summary? In the past 100 years, only one other multi-term President (Wilson) has had his hat handed to him like George W. Bush just did. Let's not let Republican noise machine drown out this crystal clear reality.

Let's not let them start taking our power away, lie by lie, like they have in the past.
Thanks. :pals:

[The Count]

1. Thanks! It was an "accountability moment" that happens once even in a life time

of a pampered nincompoop like W.

[rpannier]

2. Excellent post

Thanks.

It's kind of like talking about the average wages in the US.

As Sen Conrad (D-ND) said, "9 men are sitting in a bar drinking beer and Bill Gates walks in. The average earnings of the bar is over 100,000,000 dollars."

[bullimiami]

3. since rove came along these have been the most corrupt years for everything

from elections to graft to outright criminal behavior.
there is no point trying to compare these monumentally corrupt elections to past trends.

[mcscajun]

4. Bookmarking. Thanks for this informative debunking thread.

Probably belongs also in the Propaganda Debunking Group. :)

[Coexist]

5. I am embarrassed to say I was unaware of its existence.

Please feel free to cross-post it if you want.

[DUyellow]

6. tru dat

[Coexist]

7. .

[ArbustoBuster]

8. Thank you for doing this analysis!

Great work like this is why I come to DU.

[many a good man]

9. Normally lose some seats, not majority

Don't fall for right wing truthiness.


2006 was a well-deserved thumpin' that will go down in the history books!

[malaise]

10. Please send this to KO n/t

[Stardust]

11. Coultergeist was spouting this 6 year Turn-over phenomenon last week. Thanks

for bringing the truth to light.

Although thrilled with our victory, I did notice that many of the races were very close, effectively ruling out a true mandate. Larger victories would have sent a stronger message of voter disgust, but I'll treasure our fragile victories big and small. I'm also proud that the voter turnout was high for a mid-term. Proud to be American for the first time in a very long time,


:patriot: