The Good News About the Tennessee Senate

[liberalpragmatist]

Although Ford is a pretty conservative Democrat, I was very much hoping he would win this race. I truly doubted it however, towards the end as his poll numbers headed south and he seemed to be behind by 5 points in the aggregate poll numbers.

We've seen so many Southern close races turn into Republican blowouts, most heartbreakingly in 2004, where candidates with narrow leads or scores within the margin of error fell to defeats by 5 points or even double-digit losses.

Even more depressing was the historical "10%" rule for African-Americans. Throughout the past 1/4 century, Black candidates for governor and Senator have underperformed their poll numbers, typically by up to 10%. It happened to Harvey Gantt in North Carolina in 1990 and 1996, and to Doug Wilder in Virginia in 1990, as well as Tom Bradley in California in 1982.

So most of us could have been forgiven for believing that in the end, Ford would have lost by 5 to 8 points.

Instead, he came within THREE points of Corker - 51-48. In a state that has been trending as Republican as Tennessee, that's huge. And it's incredibly encouraging because it turns the 10% rule on its head. Ford EXCEEDED the independent polling. This may in fact mean that the 10% rule is increasingly obsolete.

I also think it's encouraging that polls showed the well-publicized "bimbo" ad was polled as "inappropriate" by 70+% of Tennessee voters. Ford may have damaged his campaign more by his crashing Corker's press conference.

Ford may have a bright future in politics (I don't think we've seen the last of him).

But though this loss in disappointing, let's keep this in perspective.

[Kajsa]

1. I like your analysis of the situation.

I live in a heavy Republican pocket of CA.

That close of a race is indeed saying something
about the Dem in the race.

Maybe Tennessee will vote in a Dem. in the next election.

[liberalpragmatist]

2. Kicking this

:kick: