Exit polls and the House: how big the win really was

[fiorello]

I pulled this information from the New York Times site with exit poll results for the House of Representatives - with results going back to 1982. It's my summary.

National vote for the House of Representatives in 2006: Democrats 54% Republicans 46%.

That's the biggest Democratic House vote since 1982, though equal to the vote in 1992 against daddy-bush. We smoked 'em!

The big obvious shift: Self-described independents voted 59% for the Democrats. Usually it's close to 50%. (Let's work to keep them! Or convert them to Democrats.)

Also relevant: 18-29-year-olds voted BIG for the Democrats. Kids ARE smarter these days.

The House vote from 1982 through 2006: Percent vote for the Democrats
                       1980's                 1990's                     2000's
ALL                 57 51 53 55 53       54 48 51 48 50       47 50 54

MEN               55 48 51 52 51       52 42 46 46 45       44 46 52
WOMEN           58 54 54 57 54       55 53 55 50 54       50 53 56

INDEPENDENTS 51 49 52 54 52       54 43 49 48 49       49 52 59

("ALL" is my estimate; the site gives numbers for men and women. I averaged them)

Here are some breakdowns of the 2006 vote:

DEMOCRATIC VOTE BY REGION IN 2006:
East 64%
Midwest 53%
South 46%
West 56%

(Whites in the East voted 59% democratic. Whites in the south voted 36% for the democrats - but even that was up from 31% in 2004. Incidentally, the shift in 1994, when the expletive-deleteds took the House, was due almost entirely to a shift in the the votes of southern whites. The change in 2006 - let's hope it is permanent! - was due to a shift in all regions.)

DEMOCRATIC VOTE BY LOCATION (RURAL/URBAN)
Rural 49%
Small town 51%
Suburb 51%
Small city 58%
BIG CITY 70% (yes, go big cities!!!)

BY MARRIED/NOT
Married: 48%
Unmarried 65% !!!!! (what, does marriage sap your brain or something???)

DEMOCRATIC VOTE BY AGE:
18-29: 61% go kids!!!
30-44 54%
45-59 54%
>60 52%

DEMOCRATIC VOTE BY EDUCATION
did not finish hs 64%
high school 56%
some college 52%
finished college 50%
graduate school 59% (go to grad school, you learn something)

DEMOCRATIC VOTE BY INCOME
poor (<15K) 69%
15-30K 63%
30-49K 57%
50-74K 50%
75-100K 50%
>100K 48%

(What a surprise. Class makes a difference! I'd bet that the Republicans cleaned up the millionaire's vote.)

DEMOCRATIC VOTE BY RACE/RELIGION
Black 89% (The winners, once again!)
Hispanic 70%
Asian 62%
White 48%

all protestants 46%
white protestants 38%
catholics 56%
jewish 88% Go Jews! That's up from 78% in 2004!

union household: 65%, constant year-to-year

Oh yes: The table also gave voting by political party: but for some reason, the vote by "black republicans" was listed as "not available". They couldn't find any!!!

The site is:
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/08/us/politics/20061108_ELECTION_PORTRAIT_HOUSE.html

[The Count]

1. K&R! Amazing!

[wilt the stilt]

2. If itwsn't for redistricting

we would have 250-260 seats

[Wickerman]

3. Much talk was made of the Hispanic vote

Do you know if 30% voting Repub is greater or less than 2004?

[fiorello]

5. A big shift from 2004- but partly a return to the past

Hispanic Democratic % vote from the above site:

1980's               1990's            2000's

75 69 75 76 72     72 61 73 63 65     62 56 70

It looks like 2004 was the odd Hispanic year, not 2006.

[Wickerman]

6. Wonderful - thanks

glad to see Republicans showed enough of their true colors to stop that "trend".

[Nostradammit]

4. That's your stat right there -

DEMOCRATIC VOTE BY INCOME
poor (<15K) 69%
15-30K 63%
30-49K 57%
50-74K 50%
75-100K 50%
>100K 48%


Says it all to me. A class cold war is what it is.


Thanks for posting these, very illuminating.

[DianaForRussFeingold]

7. I find this especially Interesting,Graduate School 59% (Go to Grad School, you Learn Something)K&R

:shrug: Karl Rove quote “As people do better, they start voting like Republicans - unless they have too much education and vote Democratic, which proves there can be too much of a good thing”



:kick:

[eridani]

8. Glad to know that my postgraduate degree--

--makes me almost as smart as a high school dropout. :D Hey, give us time--we'll catch up eventually. Looks like there's still a lot to be said for succeeding in the School of Hard Knocks.

[Tinksrival]

9. Also relevant: 18-29-year-olds voted BIG for the Democrats...........

THANK YOU JON AND STEPHEN !!!!

[cynatnite]

10. Marriage hasn't completely sapped my brain...

It's obvious it did to some.

Thanks for posting the info!