Wanna know why there were no recounts in VA & MT? You'll love it!

[autorank]

Because the Republicans knew they'd lost,
had their clocks cleaned

From the 2006 National Exit Poll (NEP)



The "7pm NEP" is an end of election day poll. It's not adjusted.
The "Final NEP" is adjusted - to conform to the vote count.
The ASSUMPTION IS that the vote count is accurate.
Cavalier assumption wouldn't you say.

Given a choice between the data as it's collected and the data as it's
adjusted TO CONFORM TO THE FINAL VOTE COUNT, which would you take?

The 7pm NEP of course.

BOTH WEBB AND TESTER KICKED ASS BUT GOT 'ADJUSTED' DOWN IN THE POLL,
ARBITRARILY, TO MEET THE LEVELS OF THE VOTE COUNT.

BUT ALLEN BYPASSED A RECOUNT AT NO COST TO HIM.

He said, it would take months etc. That's not true. We had one in VA in 2005. Once
the vote was certified, about 3 weeks after election, the RECOUNT TOOK JUST A FEW DAYS.

Burns said he wanted a recount but do you see him in court.

The Republicans had a shot - recount the votes - all of them by hand, really dig in
there and find out how many voted for each candidate. Nah, we'll pass...

WONDER WHY? COULD IT BE THEY KNEW THEY'D LOSE THE RECOUNT HANDS DOWN?


For House of Representatives outrages, see
"Post-mortem: How many GOP-held House seats
were stolen from the Dems?"
by TruthIsAll at www.ElectionFraudNews.com

[emlev]

1. Will you explain this more, please?

And as to this, "COULD IT BE THEY KNEW THEY'D LOSE THE RECOUNT HANDS DOWN?" I think it's generous. "Could it bey they knew they'd be caught cheating?" is more like it. Or that people were cheating on their behalfs. (Do two behalfs make a bewhole?)

[CatWoman]

13. that's the ONE and ONLY reason they didn't ask for a recount

(Burns and Allen): "Could it bey they knew they'd be caught cheating?"

[Raster]

20. The main reason kkkarl and his rethuglicans lost this election is because

they couldn't fix everything. Their usual dirty tricks were old and tired and suspect before they even got warmed up. And too damned many people all across the country made an effort to vote to register their displeasure. There was no way to fix this election without rove being tarred and feathered. And I will bet when all the votes are FAIRLY and ACCURATELY counted, the spread is even bigger than reported.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

23. My hypothesis about VA

Given the high number of fraudulent robocalls that went out to Democratic voters in Virginia, I think any close scrutiny of what went on before and on election day might have resulted in too many indictments.

[CatWoman]

30. isn't the FBI investigating those calls?

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

39. I believe they are...

It will be interesting to see if the investigation is quietly dropped after the concession by Allen.

[jazzjunkysue]

49. My take: I think some will risk jail for Bush, but not for the RNC.

Bush might be able to keep your but out of a prison cell and your defense attorney money in your pocket, but no one even hopes that the RNC will do that for you.

That's my take: "I'll risk it for der fuhrer, but not for Ken Melman."

Pretty simple, really.

[femrap]

57. And, of course, in '04....

all they had to do was cheat in one state, Ohio....and Blackwell was more than willing to cheat for them.

I think it was too difficult for them to find dirty people like Blackwell in so many states. And, of course, MT does NOT have e-voting.

Karl is now just a turd....the blossum has died. He even admitted that the corruption of his party was to blame. na na na na hey hey hey goodbye!

[cui bono]

66. but the admission that corruption was to blame

was only to shift the blame off himself and his failed tricks.

[opihimoimoi]

38. You and many others here have done it...thought of the main reason of foregoing the recount..

They would be caught at cheating, and/or, the loss was insurmountable....

and, as some else said, the recount would show a wider margin of victory...

No choice but to throw them towels in...

[blm]

51. Never doubted for a second it was anything else.

.

[CatWoman]

60. I heard on NPR

That the SOS's office in VA would not oversee the recount, if any.

VA has a panel established to take care of such matters, comprised equally of Dems and Republicans.

[bluescribbler]

63. Say Goodnight, Gracie.

Funny that the last two to concede were Burns and Allen.

[Lautremont]

2. It's true what they say:

In space, no one can hear you scream 'recount'.

[autorank]

15. All's quiet on the Western and Eastern front...

Virgiina is a straight forward state. If the race is less than 1% difference, it's automatic and
its paid for by the state. Doesn't cost a dime.

It's all writen down and easy to access.

But he chose not to do it. The claim about weeks, months is bull shit. The last one was either one day or two...they just total the machines, dont'eve rerun optical scan ballots. They refuse to recount optical scan ballots by hand too. It's a breeze.

[elehhhhna]

45. Can't the Libertarian cand. file for a recount? Let's get this

out under the blue sky, get evidence, and PROSECUTE.

[emlev]

3. Is there an explanation somewhere of how to understand TIA's work?

You link to it and I imagine I'm not the only one who could use some help understanding it.

Thanks for posting this! It's very important!

[TahitiNut]

4. VA's NEP Final - 51.1 and 49.9 add to 101% (??)

That's a bizarre 'adjustment' to the polling numbers ... to say the least.

[autorank]

8. What can I say?

They adjust to the actual vote count presuming its correct.

[eridani]

67. That's the well-known Finagle Constant

(The Number You Got) X (Finagle Constant) = (The Number You Wanted)

And the additive corollary--

(The Number You Got) + (Fudge Factor) = (The Number You Wanted)

[EFerrari]

5. holy crap.

K&R

[bleever]

6. How sweet it is

after a week like this, when the working life has kept me from fully relishing the moment, to be able to give this its fifth rec.

In victory, our quest for free and fair elections becomes only stronger.

:patriot:

[nicknameless]

7. How about Santorum?

Isn't he questioning the machines too?
What did the exit polling look like there?

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

9. Santorum got beat so soundly, and polled so badly, that he's got NO grounds to say shit.

[autorank]

12. You're right there. Isn't it amazing that he asked to impound the

machines.

[nicknameless]

22. Good to hear. I hadn't seen the results of his race.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

26. Here:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/PA/S/01/index.html


Democratic Casey, Jr.
2,357,058 59%

Republican Santorum
(Incumbent)
1,658,853 41%

[nicknameless]

27. Those are the "adjusted" results, probably?

I'd be interested to see how they compare to the exit polls.
Thanks for finding that info.

:)

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

31. No, that's the actual VOTE.

[nicknameless]

32. The OP shows bar charts grouped into three parts.

First: "7pm NEP" is an end of election day poll. It's not adjusted.
Second: "Final NEP" is adjusted - to conform to the "vote count".
Third: The reported "vote count".

Would the results you posted fit into the 2nd or 3rd group? I'm assuming they're not exit poll results.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

33. My post, which you responded to, has the actual vote results. That is

the source of the numbers in my post. You'll have to ask autorank about his numbers.

[autorank]

10. I'll get it for you.

In the mean tme...let him look in the machines. He'll find what we'd find...nothing.

Just a bunch of lousy security and inferior technology.

I hope he gets his wish. That means we'd be there too looking at those suckers.

Back tonight or in the a.m. with Little Ricky's data;)

[nicknameless]

17. I hope there are Dem observers there for any inspection of the machines.

I don't trust these thugs one bit.

Thanks, Auto

:)

[emlev]

18. I've heard Santorum withdrew that request, but haven't seen that anywhere. EOM

[Hissyspit]

11. Hee, hee, hee.

It just gets better and better.

[Patsy Stone]

14. Nice!

Keep the good news coming.

:toast:

Although, I wished they'd asked for recounts. I'd like to have seen exactly how much they lost by. :)

Also, did you catch Georgie's Mommie Dearest moment the other day at the presser? "This isn't my first time at the rodeo".

:rofl:

[autorank]

16. Virginia and Montana rocked...they were stronger Democratic than

they got credit for.

Give me an exit poll and a vote count and i'll take the exit poll every time, just about (the unadjusted exit poll).

:hi:

[Virginia Dare]

69. A major shift among evangelicals and catholics to...

the Democratic Party in Virginia, even with the same sex marriage initiative on the ballot. It was all about the war.

[snot]

19. K & R -- nt

[emlev]

21. See also this thread about CA-50 exit polling

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x457840

[autorank]

24. This is a great case study...really instructive on how they screw with

the votes. I want to find out one thing, which was alluded to somewhere.

When a candidate concedes, do they stop counting the votes?

[magellan]

25. I knew those final counts were off!!

They just didn't match up with the exit polls the way the other senate races did.

And I think Allen and Burns (they sound like a comedy team) knew they'd lose in recounts, one because they couldn't manipulate all the votes they wanted to on election night -- there were too many Dem votes to overcome (which accounts for the discrepancy between the 7pm exit polls and the finals) -- but also because at least in VA, the rigged paperless machines wouldn't have told them any different a second time around!

Those 7pm exit polls prove both of them lost big time -- bigger than the official results.

Nice work, autorank!

[autorank]

35. Well, you know Virginia, that's for sure.

"but also because at least in VA, the rigged paperless machines wouldn't have told them any different a second time around!"

Isn't that the truth. We're so backwards, there is barely awareness of Voter Verified Paper Ballots by the state politicians (which I don't see as any solution whatsoever, but some do). The election integrity folks here are very bright but struggle with a Democratic apointed Secretary of Elections who doesn't see any reason to have any paper trail, none. She's tight with the Maryland state elections head, who is less than progressive;)

They are hoisted on their own petard, the Republicans...but in 2005 a very good Attorney General candidate lost the recount and probably wondered WTF - they won't even let me hand count the 200,000 optical scan paper ballots (which they wouldn't...amazing).

[Greeby]

28. I expounded a theory about this on Mike Malloy's show

That the reason Burns and Allen conceded was because losing control of the Senate was an acceptable price to pay compared to the alternative of the GOP's election fraud apparatus being fully exposed, especially when it'll be needed to steal the Presidency again in 08

[hootinholler]

29. All I have to say about these two is...

Say goodnght Gracie.

-Hoot

[autorank]

36. "Good night Gracie." n/t

[understandinglife]

34. "WONDER WHY? COULD IT BE THEY KNEW THEY'D LOSE THE RECOUNT HANDS DOWN? "

Yep, they knew ... just like some of us "knew" round about midnight EST, 3 Nov 2004, what happened in OH, PN, FL, Snohomish County WA, ............

Excellent, as always.

Recommended.


NOT ONE LINE OF SOFTWARE BETWEEN A VOTER AND A VALID ELECTION.

[frebrd]

37. Good night, Gracie!

:)

Great thread. Thanks to the OP for posting.

[Marr]

40. Couldn't Webb request a recount?

I know he wouldn't do that, and it's a pity. This seems like an excellent chance to highlight the issue of election fraud, while the Dems control Congress and have 2 years to dismantle the fraud machine. They'll use it again if they can.

[autorank]

41. You have a point. There were elections activists calling for this for the

very same reasons you suggest.

Webb's obligation is to get in the Senate. I'm in VA and very concerned about voting rights (election processes and discrimination) but I wanted Webb to just say yes...do it now.

Any possibility of Allen getting in, no matter how remote, has to be avoided, at all costs.

BUT ... I'll bet Webb knows the deal. He's got a smart staff and there will be a post mortem
to see where votes came from and any irregularities.

Thank God Allen is gone. What a strange person to have in the senate? And representing the
state where I live, damn.

:hi:

[lies and propaganda]

42. besides this awesome news, I wish we had something else to cheer about

we had that fantastic :sarcasm: two win streak, i saw a definite rally and SB bid....

wtf???

[FernBell]

43. Hell, yeah!!!

[Me.]

44. Silly Question

I don't know how exit polling is done, so would you explain? Have never been, never seen it done. On a related matter, I am wondering about the Mean Jean/Wulsin match-up in Ohio. Last I heard Wulsin said the numbers didn't match up and she was hiring a team of investigators. Considering it's Ohio I'm sure she has a case, not to mention MJ's record of lying and cheating. Thank God Blackwell got his clock cleaned.

*shadow government*

[mom cat]

46. LOL! They lost because they didn't put in a big enough fix! K&R

And they sure don't want more attention to those races because someone might just expose the truth about the attempted thefts! Thanks for being on top of it!
:dem::toast::bounce::bounce::headbang::smoke::smoke::yourock::smoke::smoke::headbang::bounce::bounce::toast::kick:

[LizW]

47. Send this to Thom Hartmann

He's been following posts here about the "adjustment" of the exit polls. He commented the other day about how hard it is to find the original exit poll information. I'm sure he would love to see your charts.

[Warren Stupidity]

48. Which is why GOTV can trump fraud. nt.

[Herman74]

50. The Exit-Poll-Busting "Diebold Effect" wasn't enough...

...to save the day for the 2 Republican senators. Still, it is ominous that it came so close.

[bagrman]

56. Vote By Mail, Send the puters back and get a refund.

[NCMojo]

52. Forgive my skepticism, but...

... is there any documentation out there that confirms that the NEP in 2006 was adjusted to reflect the vote count? Similarly, is there a link for the 7 PM exit poll data you mentioned?

I know there were massive discrepencies between exit polling data in 2004 to actual vote results... but in this election, in Virginia and Montana, do we have any official corroboration?

[Vorta]

53. I haven't been exit polled in 30 years of voting. Not once. eom

[Tiggeroshii]

54. I wish they had recounted them

Just so that we knew exactly how much they really lost by.

[AzDar]

55. Makes perfect sense. Now that we have the power to set the agenda,

we need to LOSE THE MACHINES, so that we don't end up with a McCain/Jeb Bush pResidency in 2008.

[Jeffersons Ghost]

58. K&R

[Ravy]

59. Funny that the NEP final showed 101% in Web-Allen. (n/t)

[rainy]

61. OK, once again the exit polls do not match. What are we

going to do about it? I sure hope someone is taking not of this and we have this fixed by 08. If not, why not? We can't just let this go by. I can't believe how nonchalantly we discuss this as if it is OK for the exit polls not to match, within the margin of error. This is HUGE and must be dealt with.

[izzybeans]

62. Seems about right, but what is the source of this data? Is it pooled data?

[mvd]

64. Great work as usual

:applause:

[roseBudd]

65. Exit polls show who people think they voted for. Provisionals aren't in the adjusted

total and of course many provisionals end up counting not at all.

[Mr_Spock]

68. There is a known Democratic bias in exit polls.

From DKos - "How to read exit polls: a primer"

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/11/4/135126/905

...

"Exit polls are uncannily accurate"

The precinct level data has shown a consistent Democratic bias over the last 5 presidential elections, and the causes of the bias have been well-researched. In 1992, the discrepancy was almost as large as in 2004. The reputation for "uncanny accuracy" probably, ironically, derives from pollsters' extreme caution about calling states unless they are very sure they are right - and they make sure they are sure by incorporating vote-returns into the estimates in all but the most slam-dunk of races. In the UK, where, for all our faults, we conduct pretty transparent elections, the exit polls are regarded as a bit of a joke (a cruel joke in 1992). Peter Snow, the BBC poll presenter on election night has as his catch phrase "it's all a bit of fun".

"Exit polls are used to monitor election integrity around the world"

Not as far as I know. In Ukraine, there was direct evidence of blatant fraud (acid in ballot boxes; candidate poisoned with disfiguring, potentially lethal poison). Sure, fraud will tend to play havoc with exit polls, but given that exit polls can play havoc with themselves, they can never be a primary instrument for monitoring election integrity. Indeed, here are some cautions:

http://www.cartercenter.org/...

http://www.cartercenter.org/...

http://www.cartercenter.org/...

http://jimmycarter.org/...

Take home message:

The early exit polls will give you a reasonable idea of who is winning on election night, but there is no point in expecting the results to be within any calculated "Margin of Error", as MoE calculations assume random sampling error only, and do not reflect non-sampling error, which polls inevitably contain. Therefore, even if the final results diverge "significantly" from the early poll, it won't necessarily mean there is fraud. Exit polls have too many potential sources of bias for bias ever to be ruled out. If you want to find fraud, don't try and find it in the NEP exit polls. Independent polls designed for the purpose may tell you more, but they are unlikely to be much more immune from bias than the NEP exit polls, and may be more vulnerable.

...

I've been trying to explain this to people for quite a while - but the need for there to be fraud is excessively difficult to overcome here - oh, well. Read the entire article - it's very informative - then make up your own mind...

[mirandapriestly]

70. My husband swears CNN exit polls had it close

(not like the above wider spread) between Webb & Allen the night of the election when I showed him the OP. So, I'm confused. He is convinced that what he saw was the exit polls and not the results, but I didn't think they were even showing exit polls that early. Is he mistaken? Someone help me because it's driving me nuts...

[rsmith6621]

71. Relax Have a little Laugh.....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=2689321&mesg_id=2689321

[JeffR]

72. K & R!

Not that this thread needs it!

[Jeffersons Ghost]

73. it actually could stand a few more votes to put it on the VERY top

[JeffR]

74. Good point

so: another kick
:kick:

[Jeffersons Ghost]

75. Looks like it needs about 12 more to me. this is IMPORTANT guys come on, VOTE!

:kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick:

[autorank]

79. Ghostly experience...these elections, phantoms everywhere.

What a joke they think democracy is and they have their defenders. There was no open season on Democrasts this time. Pelosi calling for emergency paper ballots and Hoyer seeking to revise the 'election contest' rules in the House was a clear message to the Republicans. We're onto your game, do not mess with us.

Great seeing you, as always.

[ShaneGR]

76. I don't believe in exit polling...

Ok, 10 people come out of a precinct.

5 people come out of precinct and say they voted for candidate A.

4 people come out of precinct and say they voted for candidate B.

1 person comes out and refuses to answer who he voted for even though he may have voted for B.

It's the ghost in the system of it. It can give you a general idea, but a candidate doesnt look for a recount based on exit polling, he looks at the hard #s being reported by the SoS.

[Mr_Spock]

81. I'm still waiting for any comments on my post

I may have to make my own thread for commentary...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x2683852#2689727

[stepnw1f]

77. BUSTED!!!!! And It's a MANDATE BABY!!!!

I love it..... you right wingers are sleazy fuckers. But now we expose your asses!

[autorank]

78. They lost their "sanction"....

..when you piss off everybody all the time for six years and never say you're sorry or even offer some solace after the bestdown, all of a sudden its your turn to take some grief. Two tight elections, MT and VA get real tight but this time the system wasn't gamed and our party was not asleep.

Watch out in 2008!

[Old and In the Way]

80. Too bad WE didn't insist on the recount.

Then we'd have a valid reason to say these adjusted exit polls are crap. It sure would make one wonder about the 2004 results, too.

[liberalla]

82. Why were there were no recounts in VA & MT?

Because then the full extent of the vote-rigging by the cheating repugs would be revealed!

Better to lose by a small amount than be exposed nationally as the election thieves they are. I think they're all scratching their heads wondering what went wrong, and how to make 'corrections' for future elections.

We have to get PAPER BALLOTS for 2008!