dems contemplating '08 should look to the lesson of '06 in CA....

[mike_c]

No matter what Angelides' failings were-- and the dust will probably not settle on that argument for some time-- the essential truth remains that Arnold Schwarzenegger entered the gubernatorial race in a hideously weakened position. In early 2006 Schwarzenegger was very much a lame duck, and the fortunes of the California GOP with him. The race was the democrats' to lose at that point, and most folks thought that the proverbial ham sandwich could have beaten the wounded Schwarzenegger with ease. Schwarzenegger and his administration had approval ratings in the low thirties-- he had a target painted prominantly on his back.

So what happened? In short, the dems lost it. Again, I'm not interested in exploring WHY Phil Angelides wasn't able to rally democratic support so much as pointing out the general phenomenon-- a weakened, blundering GOP incumbant who should have been an easy mark defeated a democratic challenger who was unable to build support for his campaign among the very people who should flocked to him.

This should be a cautionary tale for democrats in 2008. The GOP will be on the ropes, especially if the democratic party controlled congress uses it's investigatory and oversight powers to turn over lots of rocks between now and 2008. The presidential race will probably be the dems' to lose, much like the 1976 race in the wake of Nixon's disgrace. But like the California 2006 gubernatorial race, a dem candidate who cannot inspire the dem base could lose the election. A dem candidate who wins the election but fails to implement an agenda of profound political and social change will likewise set the stage for future democratic party defeat.

The republican party has radicalized, despite the calls for moderation from its long time conservative foundation. Their vision of America's future can only be prevented from becoming reality if we change the underlying political climate sufficiently to make their vision irrelevant. That can only occur if dems nominate and elect candidates with genuine agendas for social change, not candidates that pander to the fearful center. No change will come from the center. The status quo will lead us back to the dark days of the Bush presidency over and over.

[skipos]

1. Running a "nerd" against a personality like Arnie is not a great idea.

Likeability unfortunately has a big effect on voters. Something worth thinking asbout in 08.

[kentuck]

5. Could they have chosen a more puny little rat-looking candidate...

Appearances do matter.

[tblue]

7. That's sadly true. I don't think any Dem could have beaten Arn*ld

Angelides just didn't have the telegenics. It wasn't his fault. Nonetheless we have to be very careful who we nominate in '08 because the likeability factor is very real and not easy to surmount. That was a key problem for Kerry and for Gore, unfortunately. I disagree with it. I don't like it. But it's a fact of life.

[skipos]

8. Yes, we have to remember that DUers are well informed voters, but

most of the country isn't. We need a candidate who can appeal to informed as well as uninformed voters.

[tblue]

14. Yes, we have to appeal to the Stupid vote

[greeneyedboy]

2. the sheer brutality of the primary knocked the wind out of Angelides, & he never recovered.

so it'd be nice to have an early front-runner in the race, but not the one all the pundits love to talk about.

[Nite Owl]

3. Beautifully said

the differences between the parties have to pointed out and people have to know that the people that they elect are going to be there for them. We have to create the issues that will be talked about not be led by phoney talking points like 'War on Terror'. We have to have the agenda and make them respond. In a word: lead, stop responding and lead.

[StClone]

6. That's the nut

"The differences between the parties have to pointed out." The Republicans will move to the center, shed their skin and connive back into power only to go rat shit crazy on the physics of money and power. Dems want an environmentally protected and fair world where the needy, children and old are cared for and the rich pay for the advantages they have.

[elocs]

4. Don't underestimate the Republicans' ability to come back

and don't get overconfident because we may have them on the ropes. Enjoy the victory now, but come January let's put a damper on how bad we are, with the strutting and trash talking. We are now part of the government and the American people will actually expect us to govern and to accomplish things, not just getting into a pissing match with the Republicans like two kids on the playground. We need to be smart and tough, while at the same time at least listening to the Republicans and including them. We do not win by trying to be badder Republicans than the Republicans were and are. The American people have probably had enough of that. And to all Democrat politicians: stay out of trouble because you will be caught. Bush has trouble with the English language, but let's see if as Democrats we can manage to say what we mean and mean what we say.

[tomp]

9. only an idiot would vote for arnold.

maybe california just has a majority of idiots.

[mike_c]

10. if you're so willing to dismiss what happened in CA...

...as unworthy of attention, then don't be surprised to see something similar happen in the national elections.

[Frances]

11. As happy as I am that the Dems took back Congress,

as a Californian, I have been very depressed about Arnold's landslide victory. Here is a man who has a truly terrible history with women; he paid off a mistress and is known as the Gropinator. He made enemies of the nurses and the fire fighters. When he spoke at the 2004 Republican Convention he said Nixon was his hero when he was young. He campaigned in 2004 and this 2006 election for Republican candidates in other states. He got free air time on Leno that was denied his opponent. He raised 3 times as much money as his opponent and was not criticized for doing this when Gov. Davis, his opponent in the recall, was crucified for fund raising.

And look at the way Arnold entered politics. Millionaire Republicans funded a recall election for no other reason than they wanted to redo the election of a Democratic governor. In spite of all the publicity about the Repubs being responsible for the Enron debacle that caused electricity rates to soar, Californians replaced the Dem governor with an Enron friendly Repub governor.

I just don't have a high opinion of my fellow Californians. Look at the leaders California has given us: Nixon, Reagan, and Arnold. Thank God for Pelosi. Maybe it's because she grew up in Baltimore that she cares about the ordinary person rather than the super rich.

[roamer65]

12. The Gropenator won because...

he's about as RINO as they come after Maria and his democratic advisor got through with him. This type of transformation will be almost impossible for a Rethug presidential candidate, as the fundies would go into a full-blown rebellion. The 2008 Rethug convention is gonna be fun to watch. If the war is still going by then, I expect it could rival the Democratic convention of 1968.

[1932]

13. Angelides lost for one reason: money

Big money on the right and left wanted Arnold.

Take a look at their financial statements and I'm sure you'll see this is the case.

Phil was begging for 100k to run a days worth of ads at the end of the campaign. Meanwhile, Arnold has raised a record amount for a governor over the last two years.

Because Angelides had no money, he couldn't challenge the lie that Arnold had somehow become a Democrat in the last 6 months.

[trashcanistanista]

15. Exactly

Many dems I know voted for Ahnuld thinking he had done a good job for California. Created jobs and controlled the deficit. Angelides did not attack Arnold on his record, not once. The Democratic Party favored Angelides during the primary which was the only reason I voted for him in the primary thinking he would get solid party support. This, apparently didn't happen. Many complaints were made to the Angelides campaign office telling them to step up on ads. There were none, as of early October (in my area, No Calif.). It seemed as if he was put in the race to lose. It infuriated many dems who supported him and I personally felt betrayed by the California democratic party. Ads during the last week of the campaign were useless as many people went absentee this election and the airwaves were so glutted with political ads. Many tuned them out. I can't imagine a worse run campaign and yes, people in California are stupid which was no secret, the recall election was proof. A campaign which attacked Arnuld's record would have given Angelides a chance. Also his background as a developer and author of Mello Roos turned off people. People see tax increases and it's all over. Ahnuld used this in his ads and won them over. I voted straight Dem to show my support which was not that easy this time, but I did it anyway. The party did not live up to my expectations. :(