Newsweek: Karl was certain of victory -- but his "metrics" were wrong

[DeepModem Mom]

The Architect's Faulty Specs
Rove believed in his metrics. He miscalculated. How did Bush's guru get the numbers so wrong?
By Richard Wolffe
Newsweek

Nov. 20, 2006 issue - President Bush knew he was in for a rough night. As he settled down in front of the TV in the White House residence to watch the election results, the numbers were already grim. By 8 p.m., long before the polls closed out west, Bush realized it was over. "It looks like this is going to be a rout," he lamented to a handful of aides.

Downstairs in the West Wing, Karl Rove wasn't ready to concede anything. The president's political architect believed the GOP could hold on to slender majorities in the House and the Senate. He had history on his side: in 2004 he refused to believe the early exit polls while everyone else was resigned to defeat. This time he was convinced his numbers would come through again. But even Rove's optimism finally cracked when he took a gloomy call from an old friend working for Rep. Clay Shaw in Florida. Shaw won re-election two years ago by a 28-point margin; last week he was heading to a four-point defeat. At 11:01 p.m., Rove made the long walk to the residence. "We're losing the House," he told Bush. The president let out a long sigh and went to bed.

How did the man they call Bush's brain get it so wrong?

Rove's miscalculations began well before election night. The polls and pundits pointed to a Democratic sweep, but Rove dismissed them all. In public, he predicted outright victory, flashing the V sign to reporters flying on Air Force One. He wasn't just trying to psych out the media and the opposition. He believed his "metrics" were far superior to plain old polls. Two weeks before the elections, Rove showed NEWSWEEK his magic numbers: a series of graphs and bar charts that tallied early voting and voter outreach. Both were running far higher than in 2004. In fact, Rove thought the polls were obsolete because they relied on home telephones in an age of do-not-call lists and cell phones. Based on his models, he forecast a loss of 12 to 14 seats in the House—enough to hang on to the majority. Rove placed so much faith in his figures that, after the elections, he planned to convene a panel of Republican political scientists—to study just how wrong the polls were.

His confidence buoyed everyone inside the West Wing, especially the president. Ten days before the elections, House Majority Leader John Boehner visited Bush in the Oval Office with bad news. He told Bush that the party would lose Tom DeLay's old seat in Texas, where Bush was set to campaign. Bush brushed him off, Boehner recalls. "Get me Karl," the president told an aide. "Karl has the numbers."...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15675318/site/newsweek

[rockymountaindem]

1. I love this line

"Rove placed so much faith in his figures that, after the elections, he planned to convene a panel of Republican political scientists—to study just how wrong the polls were."

I hope we've all learned a valuable lesson.

[kenny blankenship]

2. He thought his eleves would steal it again

That's how the man they call Bush's brain got this one so wrong.

[StClone]

10. I think it may well be

That Rove put the elves out of contact so to insulate himself for when they got caught. But without constant massaging the little buggars became reticent and misguided and ended up idle or unmotivated and ineffectual. I think the fix was in but there was a pull back owing to increased oversight and Rove's isolation from them. His figures were "correct" with the fix in place.

[Botany]

3. It also helped that "we" were counting the raw vote all day.

I know I was doing that in Ohio. Problem comes up.
"The lawyer is on the way. Talk to him/her."

Also when you push the lead beyond any possible
margin of "tweaking" much harder to steal elections.

Rove in '04 did not have his own secret polls but the
system hardwired and greased for the theft. However
w/ the new A.G. and Sec. of State in OH his scam is about
to come out too.

[Eric J in MN]

6. How were you counting? NT

NT

[nealmhughes]

4. Karl is like a vaudevillian, rather entertaining when he was fresh, but

the act is getting very, very tired now. A few will suffer through his continued performances, out of the sake of nostalgia, but will have to admit at intermission, "It's really sad, he's really lost it."

[Eric J in MN]

5. In typical Bush fashion, the guy who was more accurate,

...Ken Mehlman, is out, and the guy was less accurate, Karl Rove, stays.

[I Have A Dream]

7. Hard to believe that the word "rout" is in his vocabulary.

It seems to be beyond his 1000 word vocabulary. It must have been in his Word-of-the-Day desk calendar.

[Maestro]

8. I can't help but smile when I read this article.

What an arrogant douchebag.

[goclark]

9. Heard news he didn't like and he "went to bed"

That is how much he didn't care about anyone but Spoiled Little Boy George.

How many real leaders would "go to bed" when his troops were going down?

[TomClash]

11. Karl was trained with the librul "New Math"

I guess it ain't THE math anymore.

It's the voters who decide THE math.