Time in Senate May Be Irrelevant if Obama Runs

[Herman Munster]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/12/AR2006111200873.html

"The Senate historically has not been a great place from which to run for president," said former senator Bob Graham (D-Fla.), who personally learned the lesson in 2004. "Senator Obama might feel he would be better off to run while he has not been tainted by an excessive period in the Senate."

In the nation's history, only Kennedy and Warren G. Harding have been elected directly from the Senate to the presidency. But the dismal statistics have not dissuaded dozens of senators from trying, including big names (John Glenn, Edward M. Kennedy), largely forgotten names (Larry Pressler, Carol Moseley Braun) and plenty in between.

U.S. voters repeatedly have shown a preference for governors, especially during the 52-year stretch from Grover Cleveland's first election through Franklin D. Roosevelt's fourth, and again in recent years, when seven of the past eight presidential campaigns have been won by former governors. The 2008 presidential race seems certain to focus special scrutiny on why senators with impressive résumés have fared so poorly in White House bids. Not only did Obama cause a sensation last month by simply saying he would consider a 2008 campaign, but the early front-runners in both parties are senators: Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.).

Perhaps no governor will emerge from the pack, as Bill Clinton and George W. Bush did, and 2008 will prove the exception to the rule. But scholars of presidential campaigns have their doubts. "I'm skeptical that a senator can make it," said Barry C. Burden, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin at Madison who has written on the subject. "Just looking at the historical record, the odds are not very good."

[skipos]

1. Yep. 2 senators elected pres in the last century. We need more governors running. nt

[EdwardM]

2. No Senators who voted for the war will be elected in 08

and that's about 80 percent of them, so it looks like the chances of a Senator in the White House are slim this time. Obama is a huge exception though.

[Ignacio Upton]

3. One thing to note: There is no incumbent

Harding and Kennedy won in years with open races, while each Senator who ran and lost ran against an incumbent.

[GeorgeGist]

4. If I understand the logic correctly...

Obama has a better chance to become President if he is an irrelevant Senator.

[Vinca]

5. Throw history aside. If Obama captures the hearts of the sheeple,

he's in. Fortunately for us he's an intelligent, compassionate human being who would probably do a good job.