Which possible presidential candidates might not win their homestate?

[skipos]

Since presidential candidates have won their homestate about 90% of the time in the last 40 years or so, it seems worthwhile to consider the state our Dem and Repub candidates are coming from. Even VP candiaates get about a 4% boost in votes from their homestate. IMO, Diebold or not, if Kerry or Edwards or Gore or (gulp) Lieberman were from Ohio or Florida, they would be sitting in the Whitehouse right now.

So out of curiousity... which 08 possibilities might not be able to win their homestate? Why?

For example, on the GOP side, I don't think Romney is a popular enough governor to win a blue state like MA.

On the Dem side, I don't know if Edwards would win North Carolina. He didn't seem extremely popular there (if you have approval ratings that say otherwise, I'd like to see them) and NC is pretty red. I don't know about Clark in AR, since he never held office there. I don't know if they will run, but Schweitzer in MT and Sebelius in KS, while extremely popular, are in extremely red states.

[Debi]

1. In the latest Iowa polling (this summer) Vilsack was coming in 4th in Iowa

That may change as the contest evolves - but there are many Iowans who won't be standing for Vilsack come Caucus night.

[WI_DEM]

2. Schweitzer could win Montana in a presidential race, IMO

he is very popular there.

Edwards didn't carry NC for Kerry in '04, but then again he wasn't at the top of the ticket either. I doubt Sebelius could carry KS (which hasn't gone democratic since the LBJ landslide of '64 and before that the FDR landslide of '36), but she could still be a strong running mate and help in other ways and among key groups and make Kansas and the farm belt closer. As you say, Clark has never run for office in Arkansas so we don't know--except that Arkansas has been getting somewhat bluer, so he might win it.

Kerry would win MA
Clinton probably would carry NY (but if Rudy is the GOP nominee it could be a battle)
Vilsack probably could win Iowa.
Obama could win Illinois.
Bayh may or may not win Indiana--but he would certainly make it a contest.
Biden would win Delaware.

On the GOP side:
Romney probably would lose MA
Rudy may or may not lose NY (it would be closer than it has been)
McCain would win AZ
Frist probably would take TN

[skipos]

4. I forgot about Bayh. Hmm... Indiana is about as red as Alabama

I don't know anything about how popular he is there.
I also think Guiliani running around the country supporting wingnuts like Santorum or Allen would cost him NY.

[warrens]

13. Indiana is turning back blue

And Bayh is very popular there. He would carry Indiana. And probably not much else.

[indygrl]

7. AS a hoosier dem.

I would never vote for Bayh in a primary. He was a good gov. but he's been Bush lite in the senate.

[Dinger]

3. If tommy thompson runs, he'll have a problem in Wisconsin (nt)

[skipos]

5. Why? I don't know much about him. nt

[Ellis Wyatt]

6. I'd be interested

to see who would win NY in a Hillary vs. Rudy race.

[elocs]

8. If Al Gore had won his home state of Tennessee in 2000

he probably now would be in the final years of his second term and we would not be discussing this now.

[RestoreGore]

9. it was actually a compliment to his character that he didn't

Considering the amount of warmongering, racist homophobes that now live there.

[elocs]

10. Well, those same "warmongering, racist homophobes had elected him to the Senate.

I live in Wisconsin and there are plenty of warmongering, racist homophobes here up north. Painting with a broad brush makes you color outside the lines.

[slackmaster]

14. Same here in California

And probably everywhere else as well.

[RestoreGore]

15. Not exactly

Tennessee wasn't always this "Conservative" to my knowledge. And if it was, then I really now see what he means by politics being toxic, as he had to then be someone he wasn't just to get elected.

[4_TN_TITANS]

18. We're not all warmongering racists....

but unfortunately there are many here. I wasn't active in politics before 2000, so I really can't speak as to why Gore didn't get TN, but I can still be very ashamed of it. <hangs head>

[Rockholm]

11. Mitt Romney will not win Massachusetts.

Now, if you want to consider his other home state of Utah, than he might just win there. Might.

[warrens]

12. Guliani

He'll get smeared in NY.

[FrenchieCat]

16. EDWARDS might have problems with South Carolina....

as in 2004.

On the other hand, Wes Clark was shown to beat Gov. Huckabee by a larger margin than Sen. Clinton in Arkansas.
http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2006/08/25/News/337438.html

[mnhtnbb]

17. NC is turning purple. We now have Dem legislature, Dem governor

and Dem majority in US House of Reps. Still stuck with Dole/Burr in US Senate.

Given the changes in NC with more people from north moving in, I would give Edwards a better than even chance of winning NC if he were at the top of the ticket.