Nir Rosen: Iraq's civil war will spread for decades to Jordan, Iran, Saudi Arabia

[IndyOp]

From today's DemocracyNow! It looks as if the neocons will get exactly what they wanted - a destabilized, weakened Middle East.

AMY GOODMAN: And what would happen if the US just withdrew troops?

NIR ROSEN: The same thing happening now, the civil war would continue. At some point Shias will make a move, a large move against the Sunnis in Baghdad. You’ll find a day when there are no Sunnis left in Baghdad. Saudi Arabia and Jordan are of course panicking about this, and they are hoping that the US will in some way arm or support Sunni militias. It’s hard for me to imagine that Sunni nations in the region will stand by and watch Sunnis pushed out of Baghdad. And Baghdad becoming really a Shia city. Because there is this Sunni terror of the Shia threat. So you'll see greater support from Saudi Arabia, from Jordan, perhaps from Yemin, from Egypt, for Sunni militias. Funding, things like that. And the civil war will spread and become a regional one. And I think Jordan will cease to exist as it does now. Eventually, because you'll have the Anbar Province of Iraq joining somehow--you already have one million Iraqi’s in Jordan at least. You walk down the streets of Jordan, you hear Iraqi Arabic as much as any other kind.

<snip>

NIR ROSEN: ...I don’t think American can do much good in the region and they can probably continue to do a little more harm.

<snip>

AMY GOODMAN: Finally, Nir Rosen, in speaking with people, in speaking with many Iraqis and living there, what you think needs to be the solution right now.

NIR ROSEN: There is no solution. We’ve destroyed Iraq and we’ve destroyed the region, and Americans need to know this.... We destroyed Iraq. There was no civil war in Iraq until we got there. And there was no civil war in Iraq, until we took certain steps to pit Sunnis against Shias. And now it is just too late. But, we need to know we are responsible for what’s happening in Iraq today. I don't think Americans are aware of this. We've managed to make Saddam Hussein look good even to Shias at this point. And what we’ve managed to do is not only destabilize Iraq, but destabilize Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iran. This is going to spread for decades, the region won’t recover from this, I think for decades. And Americans are responsible.

AMY GOODMAN: Do you think troop withdrawal now, if not an answer, a necessity?

NIR ROSEN: Troop withdrawal, if I was an American, then I would want troop withdrawal, because why are Americans dying in Iraq? Every single American who dies in Iraq, who is injured in Iraq, dies for nothing. He didn’t die for freedom, he didn’t die to defend his country, he died to occupy Iraq. And if withdrawal the troops you’ll have less Americans killing Iraqis. Everyday the Americans are there they kill innocent Iraqis, they torture innocent Iraqis, and the occupy Iraqis and terrorize Iraqis.

They {U.S. troops} should leave today.

Nir Rosen's Interview



On edit: Change brackets from hard to wavy so text does not disappear.

[DemReadingDU]

1. Yes, leave NOW

from the article...

Iraq is Shia now. They have the majority, the security forces, they have the militias. What you are going to see in Iraq I think, in Baghdad especially, is a virtual genocide of the Sunnis. And the Americans are going to be unable to stop that.

[IndyOp]

2. Genocide.

I tremble for my country when I reflect that God is just.

:cry:

[BeHereNow]

3. I heard the interview this morning after reading ScarletWoman's thread last night!

I just posted a link to the interview on her thread-
EVERY American needs to hear this interview-
The Troops in particular...
Thanks for posting it!
BHN:yourock:

[scarletwoman]

5. Hope you don't mind -- I'll take this opportuntiy to link to my thread...

(I'm shameless...)

"Anatomy of a Civil War" (Iraq) by Nir Rosen -- this is a MUST READ!

And just to be a little less shameless, here's the direct link to Rosen's article: Anatomy of a Civil War -- Iraq’s descent into chaos

;)
sw

[IndyOp]

8. Thank you! I didn't see your thread until after BHN provided a link...

The more threads on this topic the better I think...

I am interested in the fact that his analysis differs from Juan Cole's -- Cole just posted the other day (sorry can't find link) that the Iraqis he spoke to did not think that the Shia would "go after" Sunnis if U.S. Troops left Baghdad.

:(

[scarletwoman]

9. I remember it as just the opposite -- that the Sunnis wouldn't go wholesale after the Shias.

From this post of Juan Cole's here

(excerpt)

Another friend, a Sunni sheikh of the Shammar tribe noted to me that thousands of former officers are prepared to assault the Green Zone. It is no longer a matter of can they do it, they are only mulling over the timing. The breach of the Green Zone security the other day was a test of their ability to get in, and not a real attempt at a coup, though it is reported as such. Every Iraqi I talk to says unambiguously that the resistance attached to the former regime would take out the Shiite militias with barely a fight, but that the resistance will not commit wholesale revenge against the Shiite population. They just want to get rid of the "carpet baggers" from Iran. '

But maybe this isn't the excerpt you are thinking of...

sw

[IndyOp]

11. That is the excerpt I was thinking of -- but how does this fit/conflict

with Rosen's understanding of the situation. Rosen is saying that the Shia have the power and will take over the country, pushing the Sunni's from Baghdad. Cole is saying that the Sunnis can take down the Shia - particularly the "carpet-baggers from Iran". Two quite different views?

[scarletwoman]

15. Cole isn't saying that, he's quoting one particular person offering one point of view.

One thing I've gleaned from all the reading I've been doing, is that while the Shias have the numbers, the Sunnis may very well be more organized and better funded -- especially by outside entities. And the Shias have factional disputes going amongst themselves -- Rosen actually covers that aspect quite well.

The Sunni governments in the region -- Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordon, etc. no doubt have a lot invested (both figuratively & literally) in holding back any incipient tide of Shia power. Look how quickly the Arab governments lept to condemn Hizbullah at the start of the Israel attack on Lebanon. Hizbullah is a Shia populist movement, and the worst nightmare of all the autocratic Sunni regimes in the region -- many of whose states contain substantial (and historically suppressed) Shia populations.

There is a much larger power struggle going on right now than just the sectarian conflict in Iraq. Shia (and NON-Arab) Iran is looking to become a major power in the region, which is a real threat to the status quo Arab Sunni regimes.

However the civil war in Iraq plays out, there are state actors taking sides and no doubt sending money and arms to their favored factions. Juan Cole tends to keep a more narrow focus on the immediate action on the ground in Iraq, as opposed to taking a more sweeping view of how the Iraq power struggles are playing out in the larger regional picture. That's okay, he's not trying to promote any particular geostrategic theories, he's just trying to lay out the facts on the ground.

Nir Rosen puts together a more comprehensive picture. I think he and Cole complement, rather than contradict, each other. To round out all this information, I highly recommend Pat Lang's site, "Sic Semper Tyrannis" -- which I posted about here: If you aren't reading Sic Semper Tyrannis, you are really missing out

sw

[IndyOp]

21. Did you see this "War Drums at Washpo" ?

"War Drums at Washpo" from Sic Semper Tyrannis 2006
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/

"The killers of Mr. Gemayel have not been identified and may never be. But the attack fits snugly into a pattern of provocations across the region by Iran and Syria, which appear to believe that American reversals in Iraq have given them the opportunity to create what Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad calls "a new Middle East" -- one in which their influence and radical ideology will predominate. They would make their client Hezbollah the power broker in Lebanon, restoring Syrian suzerainty. They would use Hamas to block any progress toward an Israeli-Palestinian settlement and perpetuate a continuing, if low-grade, war on Israel. And they would continue to bleed the United States by supplying insurgents in Iraq with arms and sanctuary. Iran meanwhile presses ahead with its barely disguised nuclear weapons program: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad recently promised to increase the number of centrifuges enriching uranium from the current 328 to 60,000." Washington Post

This editorial virtually endorses any number of neocon propaganda lines:

It assumes that Iran and Syria are unmitigated forces for evil in the world who can only be dealt with through force and the threat of force or sanctions.

It assumes that Hamas is simply a tool of Iran and Syria without any other status at all.

It assumes that the Hariri/Siniora/US government assertion that the Syrian government killed Pierre Gemayel must be true.

It assumes that a greater share of political power in Lebanon for Hizbullah and Amal would be a bad thing. The evident truth that the Shia represented by these groups are grossly under-represented seems to mean nothing to the Post.

It assumes that Hizbullah is a "puppet" of Iran and Syria. It says nothing about the influence that the US and France exercise over the Hariri/Siniora camp.

[scarletwoman]

10. Oh, and if this isn't too crass...

Would you mind kicking my Nir Rosen post so more folks might find it?

Anatomy of a Civil War -- Iraq’s descent into chaos

Thanks,
sw

[IndyOp]

12. I kicked. It is too late to "R" - past 24 hours... (n/t)

[scarletwoman]

17. Thanks! I'm not worried about recommendations, I just want folks to read Nir Rosen!

Thanks again,
sw

[robertpaulsen]

4. K & R! Important interview!

:kick:

[scarletwoman]

6. Oh yeah -- k&r, too! (C'mon, people -- one more vote!) (nt)

[RedEarth]

7. Thanks for posting Nir Rosen's interview......very interesting

[Jcrowley]

13. The United States has destroyed Iraq

this was the intention. This was the plan. It has been systematic running through the last fifteen years. And they were taking the baton fron the UK and others. This is as wicked as it gets. Wholesale slaughter. Complete disregard for life.

[IndyOp]

14. About 1.4 million Iraqi's dead in the past 16 years --

I had the death toll for the Iraq War at 255K when I posted this on March 25th 2006. We know now that a reasonable estimate of the death toll is 650K.

Real Shock & Awe: After 15 Years War, Sanctions 1,000,000 Iraqis Dead
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/IndyOp/4

Persian Gulf War: 150,000
Gulf War Aftermath: Many, many thousands
UN Sanctions: Primary cause of 600,000 deaths
Iraq War: 650,000

[Jcrowley]

20. Thanks for that

I've been out in the streets protesting for what now seems like forever. Bush 1, Clinton and now Cheney. The figures are in the 7 figure category and sure to escalate. What's been killed in all of this is not only the massive number of people but the entire future for generations to come.

[Strelnikov_]

16. Then Collapse Of The Western And Asian Economies Is Imminent

The 'region' we are discussing contains 2/3rds of the worlds remaining oil and natural gas. More significantly, it probably contains over 80% of the worlds energetically viable petroleum. Unless one considers tar sands and Orinoco heavy oil energetically viable, which IMHO it is not.

The destabilization that the GOP/Reich-Wing initiated with their misguided/ mismanaged war has put now puts all of these resources into jeopardy. The GOP/Reich-Wing made a petro grab, bungled it badly, and the American people, along with the developed world, are going to pay the price for generations to come.

An emergency energy transformation program will take 20 years minimum to begin to have a marked effect on stabilizing the energy supply/demand relationship. The scenario the OP presents is possible loss of Middle East energy resources within five years. In other words, $250+/bbl oil followed by petrocollapse.

See anyone, including the Democrats, talking about emergency CAFE restrictions to 50 mpg+? Immediate $3/gal gas taxes?

Nope. Just bitching when the price goes up 10 cents.

And who wins from all of this? Russia.

Oh, by the way, the US argicultural carrying capacity without massive petroleum inputs is about 200 million people. Wonder what we are going to do with that extra 100 million.

[Jokinomx]

18. It is time to get out... NOW...

After reading Nir Rosen's "Anatomy of a Civil War" yesterday and now this... he (IMPO) is the most knowledgeable person to date on the actual situation that we are in.

His analysis is critical to understanding the complexity of the situation.

Thanks for the post

K&R

[jwirr]

19. I wonder if the people of Israel are feeling safer now that *ss has

been fighting them over there so we won't have to fight them here? If this war spreads to the whole area they will be in real danger.

[IndyOp]

22. You would think so, but in this "through the looking-glass" world...

DemocracyNow! had a clip in today's show that included Olmert thanking the courage of George W. Bush and emphasizing how much better off Israel was now without Hussein.

Who gets the top U.S. and Israeli power-brokers to say and do things that repeatedly lead us to the precipice - deaths of most everyone in the U.S. and Israel?

:shrug:

[bloom]

23. kick

[ConsAreLiars]

24. K&R - This interview is the best short summary of the dynamics in Iraq

that can be found. The longer article http://www.bostonreview.net/BR31.6/rosen.html as linked to in Scarletwoman's thread http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=2799503&mesg_id=2799503 is not that hard to read - very well written - and worth the time.

But even this short interview will give DUers the info needed to see through the utter bullshit of the Corporate TeeVee pundits, the approved for TeeVee politicians ("Democratic" and fascist), and the so-called "expert analyst" Generals.

[Vincardog]

25. WE should leave NOW. It is the NeoConvicts fault. It is Bush's WAR.