Is it just me, or is there some pretty bad economic news lately?

[maxrandb]

Existing Home Sales Rise, Prices Fall

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/11/28/D8LM52N80.html

The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that existing home sales edged up 0.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.24 million. It marked the first sales increase since February.

However, the median, or midpoint, price for a home sold dropped to $221,000 in October, a decline of 3.5 percent from a year ago. That was the biggest year-over-year price decline on record. It marked the third straight month that home prices have fallen compared to the same period a year ago, the longest stretch of such declines on record.

Markets rocked by sharp slide in dollar

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/dca2809c-7bf6-11db-b1c6-0000779e2340.html

A sharpening slide in the US dollar unnerved global markets on Friday as investors sought to protect themselves from the possibility of sustained dollar weakness.

As US markets were closing on Friday , the euro stood at a 19-month high of $1.309, up 1.2 per cent, while sterling gained 0.9 per cent to a 1½-year peak of $1.9333. The yen climbed 0.5 per cent to ¥115.66.

The dollar has now fallen this year by more than 10 per cent against the euro and 12 per cent against sterling. Some economists suggest the greenback has further to slide given a weak economic outlook in the US, and the prospect of interest rate cuts there next year.

Confidence falls for second straight month. First back-to-back decline since Katrina

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?siteid=mktw&guid={05F62086-52CB-4909-A441-73CC1014A1A8}&dist=bnb

ECONOMIC REPORT Confidence falls for 2nd straight month in November First back-to-back decline since Hurricane Katrina WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Uncertainty about the strength of the economy caused the second straight monthly decline in U.S. consumer confidence in November, the Conference Board said Tuesday. The consumer confidence index fell to 102.9 in November from a revised 105.1 in October, the private economic research group said. The index peaked at 105.9 in September.

This is the first back-to-back decline in the index since last September and October, when hurricanes ravaged the Gulf Coast region. The decline in confidence surprised economists, who were expecting the index to increase to 106.4 from the initial October reading of 105.4, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

Economists thought lower energy prices and an end to negative campaigning from the midterm election would boost confidence. But concern about the job market and a more-guarded short-term outlook led to the drop in confidence, the Conference Board said.

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and some asked, "what harm could he do in 6 years?" I have a feeling that it is going to take a lot of heavy lifting and sweat equity to fix the damage Bush and his enablers in Washington have done to our country.

Rep Tancredo may be partially right, but not just about Miami. Bush and Bushbots like Tancredo may be turning the entire United States into a 3RD World Country.

How long will it take until Faux News blames the impending economic disaster on the Democrats?

I'm not an economist, but I'm feeling a little like we are heading for a rough rode.

[tridim]

1. I'm worried BushCo is in scorched economy mode

That is, screw up the economy as much as possible before they're thrown out on their asses. The Dems need to be smart about this because the public will quickly forget who was at fault.

[catmandu57]

3. Sure seems that way

that and they're finally letting the true numbers out, it's been bad now we're finding out how bad.

[Greyhound]

10. It's already done. What we are seeing now is only the very beginning

of the consequences of what the re:puke:s did in the first two years of the cabal. Probably half of the most heinous, economy-killing, changes don't even start until 2008. Y'all ought to check out the economy forum once in a while, this is exactly what has been predicted for over a year that I know of, and I'm sure it was being said long before I got there.

[maxrandb]

21. That Concerns me too

We all know what Hannity and Limpballs and Faux News will be doing for the next 2 years. Hell, Hannity was going for a record on how many times you could say "a recession that this president inherited from Bill Clinton" in a 3 hour period.

The "crazed, unhinged right" will saturate their dwindling number of listeners with the "it's the Dem's fault" mantra. We need to ensure that crap doesn't seep into legitimate news sources and the MSM.

If any of the networks, or cable news show try to get "it's the Democrats fault" out of there mouths, the Dems better ram it back down their throats pronto.

It's bad enough that the Repukes have fucked the middle class of this country without the fucking common courtesy of a "reach-around". They simply can't be allowed to shift the blame for their failed policies.

[Virginia Dare]

2. I think we're headed for a fall...

the housing market is going down the tubes. Houses in my neighborhood were being snapped up barely after hitting the market 18 months ago. I just saw my first auction this week, expect more of the same.

Also, eventually the Chinese will wake up and smell the coffee, and then we're up a creek.

[sandnsea]

5. Prices are down 10% here

Some more than that. You can't have stagnant wages and maintain increased housing prices. It had to break sooner or later.

[ProfessorGAC]

12. Not Much Of One

Even with all the talk about the housing bubble, the actual GDP growth on the consumption side has been fairly poor. Take away the increase in housing costs and we get just about zero real growth. There isn't any historical record of a serious downturn happening from a posture of nearly zero growth. In my modeling work over the past couple of decades, i can find no causative links to such a plunge when things are stagnant already. The serious trip mechanisms are exponentially related to current growth, or iow, when things are hot and heavy, small things can cause serious changes (negative) to critical economic parameters. But, they have only a small impact and lower probability of rapid occurance, when the economy is sluggish.

We've been sluggish (virtually stagnant) for over 5 years now. The thing that concerns me most is the inability to sustain about 4% of GDP due to excessive governmental borrowing. We are at a point right now where the deficit and overall debt will start a negative leverage effect on economic growth and sustainability. But, my models indicate that the slope of that leverage is mild, so even though it's a problem, it won't precipitate a massive fall. Just a little by little slip downward.
The Professor

[maxrandb]

24. Are you predicting a soft-landing

vice a terrible crash? I was never very good at econ. I just try to make more money than I spend, ballance my check-book, and try to leave something for the kids.

Professor, without giving me a semester of econ, if it's a little by little slip downward, where do you see the bottom? What can we look for to know that we've reached the bottom?

[ProfessorGAC]

28. Well, A Soft Landing Implies. . .

. . .a fall from a loftier place. So, no i'm not predicting that because we're not in a hot cycle from which to land.

I would guess that what we'll see is a clear flattening of growth (nominal) so that even the spinners can't obfuscate about it. I'm guessing about 2 - 2.25% nominal growth with inflation (total absolute) at about 2.5%, which would be mild negative real growth. That will be the bottom and given it will indicate truly weak performance, the Dems will be able to reverse the revenue sink that are the tax cuts and begin reducing spending in Iraq "for the sake of the economy". This turns a foreign affairs issue into a domestic one, and dems usually get their way on that stuff.

As borrowing by the gov't subsides, this tends to leverage a return of institutional investors away from currency and fed instruments back to stocks. This drives the small caps toward innvoation and starts the productivity back up. As productivity rises, profits trend upward which discourages employment cuts. The economy then becomes more dependent on consumption and less dependent on gov't spending. Remember there are some emotional elements involved, as people see less red ink from gov't, consumer confidence rises. This helps to preserve jobs as well.

So, i'm guessing we'll see minimal change in employment (a good thing, because i always hate layoffs), and some mild negative growth, but no crash.
The Professor

[maxrandb]

31. Thanks for the lesson

There appear to be quite a few people that are suffering under Bushco's policies. I'm wondering if the unemployment numbers we're fed are correct or fudged.

I'm not ready to stock up on potted meat yet, but I think we're one catastrophe away from a crash.

[maxrandb]

23. Part of what has been propping the economy up for so long

are people that were spending money borrowed through "home equity loans". I have a feeling that a lot of people are going to end upside down on their houses. They will owe more than it's worth. Oh, and you can forget using that Home Equity Line of Credit to pay for little Suzy's college education.

We all better hang on. It's going to be a hell of a ride.

[Porcupine]

38. Nope. The economy is NOT reality based.

Therefore we really don't need to worry about production of goods or price of essential products and services as indicators of market health. Look the guys who just sold YouTube to GOOGLE just made more money than Ford motors is worth and they had no product and no sales. Lord only knows what Google sells.

Condos in California sell at a premium price when the rents wouldn't cover the HOA dues much less the mortgage. Reality is not an issue.

So even if gas is $666 dollers a gallon and a 3/2 condo in Reseda costs $250 million there will be jobs for everybody and Venti Mocha-Almond Cappacino's all around.

No worries.

[sandnsea]

4. Durable Goods plunge

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/D/DURABLE_GOODS?SITE=MSJAD&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

"WASHINGTON (AP) -- Orders for big-ticket manufactured goods plunged in October by the largest amount in more than six years, in another sign of a slowing economy.

The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that demand for durable goods fell a larger-than-expected 8.3 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted $210 billion, reflecting a big drop in demand for commercial airplanes, a category that had soared in September."

Between this and Walmart sales, yeah, things are looking pretty bleak. I can't figure out what they will create a bubble in next. Gold has gone up, but can it go up further?? :shrug:

[bighughdiehl]

6. Hello everyone...but....

People have been screaming about this for a long time, now....most of them are the usual chicken littles. I just expect the US economy to go down in an Orwellian slow burn...big dollar and housing drop or not. More good jobs will be outsourced, gas prices will go to $3 and STAY there or go higher. The talking six or seven figure combovers on CNBC will insist everything is hunky dory while millions of Americans become destitute. THe dollar is a red herring. It would be an all too obvious indicator TBTB will probably continue to prop up somewhat. Watch the dow zoom right past 13,000(drops like yesterday's have happened before...and then everyone predicts a crash which doesn't happen.)..again, while millions more Americans are impoverished. TPTB seem hellbent on floating the "obvious" indicators and statistics on an infinite see of hot air to keep the big playas in the game...with little lapses lasting a couple days here and there. Remember kids, inflation is under control, I mean, you don't really need energy, food, healthcare or stupid shit like that. Freedom is on the march. We are fighting the terrorists over there so we don't have to fight them over here. The economy is strong and getting stronger. I try not to pay attention to the economics news anymore...it is all bullshit...we will never hear the word "recession" again...the way things are going I wouldn't hesitate to guess that 95 percent of the population could end up living in New Delhi like conditions and the statistics would simply be fudged. We're number one! Seriously, we need to end this globalization bullshit and have real education and healthcare systems and Gawd forbid raise taxes slightly on billionaires. Lets hold the new Congress feet to the fire on this...we'll see. I know people who have been outsourced MULTIPLE times working in coffee shops and crashing in the basements of people who are not YET impoverished.

[Jacobin]

8. Welcome to DU

I think you may be among kindred spirits.

:toast:

[bighughdiehl]

13. THanks

Thanks for the welcomes peeps. I can tell most of you are thinking people, not sheeple. I maintain that the US is already a third world country, TPTB quite aside from but also including the Bush cabal are just doing their best to keep it under wraps. There are those of us who know what has happened the past few years. I know people who have lost jobs, and can't find even remotely decent new ones. THey are educated in supposedly hot fields. People tell them to go back to school, but there is no way to fucking afford it. And if the jobs just aren't there, anyway...why bother. I think people need to start planning. Families doubling up in housing or whatever....but it will take a lot more loss of comfort to get out of the suburbanly correct mentality even a lot of working class people are wrapped up in. I plan on cutting spending drastically...living off barter if possible...already half way there. We need to hit the assholes where it hurts...show them more quickly that if they don't give us real jobs....there is no one to buy the shit they sell.

[NMDemDist2]

30. i'm there with you, I sold my suburban house and bought a little place

with an acre CASH

my expenses are down to water and power and the garden is already planned. i'll have to learn some stuff about subsidence farming but it doesn't take much to keep this roof over my head

just for comparison, our gross income in 2000 was $103,000.00

this year we'll be lucky to hit $25K

[DemReadingDU]

34. I can understand, been there

Also check out the daily stock market watch topic in the Latest Breaking News category.

here is link for today...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2632094


and welcome to DU!

:hi:

[Richard Steele]

9. Hi, bighughdiehl! Welcome to DU.

:hi:

[earth mom]

14. Excellent first post!

Welcome to DU! :hi:

[raccoon]

18. Welcome to DU.

"the US economy to go down in an Orwellian slow burn"

Sometimes I kind of think that will be how it plays out. I've been expecting the big crash for years. :silly: No, really, I have.

[maxrandb]

25. Welcome to DU and excuse my ignorance

but what is TBTB or TPTB stand for?

[bighughdiehl]

29. TPTB

TPTB stands for "The powers that be"....including corporate ones.

[maxrandb]

35. Thanks!

Should have figured that out myself

[NMDemDist2]

27. wow, excellent rant so welcome to DU bighughdiehl!

:hi:

[newyawker99]

39. Hi bighughdiehl!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Jacobin]

7. I'm pretty sure its all Clinton's fault

:eyes:

[MannyGoldstein]

11. No - Just Much or Most of It

Clinton went on a "free trade" binge to help out his patrons in the Predator Class. We will now reap the results.

[w4rma]

17. How about giving alot more of that blame to the Republicans who have been pushing for

'free' trade since before Clinton ever came into office.

[wicket]

37. More specifically, it's the fault of his penis

:P

[The Backlash Cometh]

15. Now that the Democrats are in power, you're going to hear about

everything that the Republicans tried to keep secret.

[progressoid]

16. Shhhh!!! Pamela Anderson and Kid Rock are getting a divorce!!!

Big News!

[The Count]

19. Now it can be told...bad news previously concealed will surface & dems be blamed

[ftr23532]

20. If you think that's scary...

...check out the http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahnqABy80Itw&refer=home">$370 Trillion derivatives bubble that's been allowed to inflate its itself with wild abondon and without http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=125x125911">any real oversight for decades.

[newyawker99]

40. Hi ftr23532!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[ftr23532]

41. Thanks!

:bounce: :bounce: (I love that bouncy thing)

[butterfly77]

22. They fucked it up so...

We need debt relief...

[maxrandb]

26. I thought the Iraq oil was going to pay for all this shit

:sarcasm:

[4_TN_TITANS]

33. That darn Iraqi oil....

I'm waiting to hear just where it's been disappearing to since the war.

[leftofthedial]

32. they can't sustain the lies any longer

it's been in full meltdown ever since 2000 when the bush cabal gave their "base" the high sign that it would be steal with both hands time come January 2001.

l'il george and unka dick started talking down the economy and it started coming undone. Since then, every one of their "policies" and the free rein they have given to their capitalist cronies have been one hollow point bullet into the body of the US economy. They've sucked at least two trillion dollars out of the US into the oblivion that is "free market" capitalism.

pigs at a trough

[rman]

36. AP: "Orders for manufactured goods plunge"

Orders for manufactured goods plunge
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Orders for big-ticket manufactured goods plunged in October by the largest amount in more than six years, in another sign of a slowing economy.

The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that demand for durable goods fell a larger-than-expected 8.3 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted $210 billion, reflecting a big drop in demand for commercial airplanes, a category that had soared in September.

It marked the third month in the past four that orders have either fallen or shown no gain, providing evidence that the nation's factories are beginning to feel the impact of the slowdown in the overall economy.

The 8.3 percent drop in orders for durable goods, items such as airplanes and autos that are expected to last at least three years, was the largest one-month decline since a 14 percent plunge in July 2000. It followed an 8.7 percent surge in September.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/D/DURABLE_GOODS?SITE=MSJAD&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

[Phrogman]

42. Dollar is sinking like a rock here in Asia, look at our exchange rates

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?from=USD&to=PHP&amt=1&t=2y

Those of us with pensions in dollars are really starting to feel the decline

[Phrogman]

44. Straight down against the Euro, heres another...

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?amt=1&from=USD&to=EUR&submit=Convert

[Mr_Spock]

43. I was glad to hear WalMart sales fell while other retailers did OK

Call me a pathetic optimist, but I want to believe that the boycott is having an effect.

[Jcrowley]

45. The US economy is toast

The point of fact here is that there never has been an economy per se it has always been a matter of financial arrangements.

One cannot underestimate how desperate the situation is in regards to not only energy supplies but also to materials.

Hope folks are taking serious measures in their communities to prepare for the long emergency. This isn't some abstract Y2K fantasy.

Think Argentina.

Every single aspect of the World Economy is based on pipe dreams and cancerous ideologies.

[roamer65]

46. We're staring a full-blown dollar crash in the face.

I wonder what presidents will be on the new high denomination notes when we have to print them. I hear that Bernanke is going with Paulson to Beijing because the Chinese are beginning to dump dollars en masse.

[maxrandb]

48. And I'll Say it Again

"some asked; 'how much harm can he do in 4 years? Get over it'"

Here's a big F$#K YOU! to the felonious 5 Supreme Court Justices. The destruction of America is on your heads.

Hey Antonin, it looks like the "irreparable harm" wasn't done to King George, it was done to us!

[pat_k]

47. Did all they could to prop things up thru Nov 7th. . .

. . .Of course, couldn't keep it up for long, would tend to eat into the profits.