http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund112706.htmlDeath Knell of the US Dollar...
Clive Maund
Nov 27, 2006
The dollar plunged with startling ferocity late last week, driven by heavy selling. This was very bearish action that signals panic, and the probable onset of a severe downtrend. A break below the crucial support at 80 on the dollar index is expected to mark the transition from a clandestine unloading of dollar assets to an all-out stampede to "get what you can for them" before it's too late.
The conditions leading to an inevitable dollar panic sell-off did not come about overnight. They are the result of years of abuse, principally by the Federal Reserve of the US, which has created a veritable blizzard of dollars, and the universal acceptance of this "funny money" has, up until now, allowed the United States to freeload economically on the rest of the world, living way beyond its means. The exponential growth in dollars has been and is created electronically at the touch of a button, so that paying for anything is never a problem, whatever you want you simply print the extra money to pay for. Because foreigners have so far played along with this game, they are now widely, and to some extent understandably, regarded as stupid. However, it is a dangerous mistake to underestimate the mental capacities of other peoples.
The Chinese, in particular, have an ancient and deep culture, and when it comes to strategic considerations, can outthink - and outflank - virtually anyone. So what's going on? - why have they accepted a mountain of paper and IOUs over many years in exchange for real hard work and a vast quantity of real tangible products? The Chinese, and others, have done this to carry them over a bringing period during which they have built up their economies and infrastructure. Their goal - which they are fast moving towards - is to arrive at the point where there is sufficient domestic and regional demand that they no longer need to rely on orders from countries like the United States. At this point - which we may arrive at sooner rather than later - things will become very dangerous for the US dollar, and the situation is actually far worse than many now believe, because the Chinese and others are preparing to WRITE OFF THEIR DOLLAR ASSETS AS A BAD LOSS - they will try to get what they can for them, of course, but otherwise will be ready to fall back on domestic and regional demand and tough it out, thus severing the umbilical with the United States, which will be left stranded, with no takers for its funny money, a gutted manufacturing base, astronomic debts and fiscal chaos, and a huge military it can no longer afford to service.
When the forces of globalization are let loose, as they have been, this is actually a natural and inevitable process, as orders and work simply move to the lowest bidders. Europe and the United States are uncompetitive and will be sidelined by the powerhouse economies of China and South East Asia. The Chinese and other trading partners with the US are already rotating out of dollars and into Dinars, Euros, commodities generally and Precious Metals at an ever increasing pace. As we already know, this has been a primary driver for the commodities boom. The recent attempt by the United States to maintain its dominance by brute force - a big reason why Iraq was invaded was that it was planning to sell its oil in Euros - is right now, quite literally, running into the sand, and it is now only a question of when, not if, the helicopters arrive on the rooftops to evacuate the last of the embattled US service personnel, like in the film "The Killing Fields", although a last wildly dangerous attack on Iran still cannot be ruled out.
Having looked at the fundamentals, let's now see what the charts have to say about the dollar.