'We Have Jumped The Shark"-Why We Can't Win Militarily in Iraq"- by Larry C Johnson

[kpete]

Friday, 12 January 2007
Why We Can't Win Militarily in Iraq
by
Larry C Johnson

The Bush surge is not about "Mission Creep", it is "Mission Leap". Every justification for going to war in Iraq has been exhausted and repudiated. Finally, with the execution of Saddam Hussein, we have jumped the shark. Yes we have deposed Saddam and his regime, we have certified that there are no WMD's in Iraq, and have helped the Iraqi Shia create a fledgling Shia-led government. Go get that "Mission Accomplished" banner and let's start the celebration. It is time to send our combat forces home.

That does not mean we will leave Iraq in peace. Far from it. A sectarian civil war is underway and will probably worsen. But this is a war we cannot win. We might have a chance if we were fighting one insurgency--let's say Zarqawi's Al Qaeda. But we are not. We are in the middle of a hydra headed civil war. We have helped create a lethal version of an Animal House food fight. There are no clear discernible sides. There are multiple Sunni insurgent groups and there are multiple Shia insurgent groups. The most extreme Sunni groups believe their ultimate mission is to kill Shia. Some Shia groups are willing to collaborate with some Sunnis. There is only thing these groups agree on--all see the United States as an intruder and want it expelled.

There is not much we can do to quell the violence in Iraq. In the face of our conventional military force the various insurgent groups refuse to stand and fight and melt into the populace. They hide out until we go away and then filter back in. We can surround the various Baghdad neighborhoods and embed our troops with Iraq police. And our troops will search fruitlessly for the insurgents as we invade homes and, more often than not, roust unsuspecting Iraqis. God help us if we do a Fallujah style clear and hold. It will be a human tidal wave spilling out of the city.

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The neo-cons continue to try to foist their vision of terror on the people of the United States. They insist we must stay and fight in Iraq or else the Islamofascists--militant muslims keen on building a worldwide Caliphate (think of International Communism with God at the center)--will take over. A scary vision but it is nonsense. Ignore for a moment the gulf separating the aspiring Sunni Caliphs from the aspiring Shia Caliphs, there are 800 million muslims who have not bought into this craziness. We need to stop acting out of fear and concentrate on what is in our national interest. That's where the debate needs to be. But one thing is clear--continuing to kill Iraqis with U.S. troops is not in our interest or theirs. Accepting that fact is the first step on the road towards peace.

MORE AT:
http://noquarter.typepad.com/my_weblog/2007/01/why_we_cant_win.html#more