Hate to say this,but I predict a Khe Sahn or Dien Bien Phu type of

[rzemanfl]

situation coming soon in Iraq. Is there any historical precedent at all for a civil war in an occupied country?

[lapfog_1]

1. I think the entire green zone is one large Khe Sahn situation

and has been for years.

[rzemanfl]

3. When our troops went in I thought they'd have to shoot their way

back out. Sure looks that way now.

[madokie]

8. The sad part is, it isn't the troops fault, only the leaders.

[H2O Man]

35. True.

Very true.

[ladjf]

37. The insurgents don't have the type of firepower that would

require our people to have to fight their way out. This is not like Viet Nam in that regard.

[AzDar]

2. I was just explaining to my 9-year-old son the significance of Dien

Bien Phu this morning. I worry for our Troops...

[rzemanfl]

4. We should ask for safe conduct and get the hell out of there now,

while we still have a military.

[AzDar]

6. I'm inclined to agree. Jeebus, what hath that Chimp wrought???

n/t

[madokie]

9. stupid he, he don't know. he see silver spoon, it glistens so.

:cry:

[genie_weenie]

5. No, you are being a little bit of an Alarmist

The insurgency will never progress to a Level III guerrilla war, meaning the guerrilla's are able to field a standing army (with logistics, HQs, organized structures ala a modern army) simply because our Air Power really is that overwhelming in Iraq. There are no SA-2s, too shoot down our planes, the guerrillas will never be able to assemble a military force close to battalion size.

[wakeme2008]

11. But they have knives and work next to the troops

All it would take is an order to kill the nearest American at the "second prayer call" of the day.

[genie_weenie]

13. Huh?

Actually,it's been my experince after Maghrib (Sunset Call to Prayer) that the Imams and clerics incite a few "insurgents" to lauch some mortars at us...

[rzemanfl]

15. They have bad weather in Iraq from time to time, and unlike the

Viet Cong, the Iraqis have demonstrated that they don't care about survival.

[genie_weenie]

17. Bad weather? Sandstorm

Yeah, I've been through a few sandstorms and I'm telling you when the weather is that bad, no operations are going to be launched (yes I know this sounds Ironically like what the French General at Dien Bien Phu was told about the ridgelines, blah, blah, blah)

The key is the Iraqis, will never be able to move in an arty regiment, or a sam battery or assemble troops of any significant amount (as long as we have our current force disposition)

Think about Fallujah, there were 2500-4000 "insurgents" there and many escaped but, they were never able to launch any major assaults on US positions.

Of course, typing this makes me sick to my stomach, because I know some Marines and Soldiers who were killed during Fallujha Nov 2004...

http://www.global-trance.co.uk/fr_index.html?/Darude.html

[rzemanfl]

19. I guess what I am saying is that a unit is going to get cut off

somehow and suffer serious casualties.

[tocqueville]

16. unles the Iranis pump in the stuff

not only the weapons, but the infrastrucure, specially if they are attacked first on their nuclear sites...

Besides they have good opportunities to retaliate at sea


remember that the material losses for the US are much higher than known in general, specially helicopters

A little-known cost is in vehicles lost in combat. Just for the U.S. Army alone that number has reached nearly 1,000. The cost for replacing those totally destroyed vehicles and overhauling thousands more worn out by heavy use totals $9 billion in this year's proposed defense budget and in the off-budget emergency wartime supplemental budget Congress passes twice each fiscal year.
Since the Iraq combat operations began in the winter of 2003, the Army has lost 20 M1 Abrams tanks; 50 Bradley fighting vehicles; 20 Stryker wheeled combat vehicles; 20 M113 armored personnel carriers; 250 Humvees; and some 500 Fox wheeled reconnaissance vehicles, mine clearing vehicles and heavy- and medium-transport trucks and trailers.
The bulk of these losses in tracked and wheeled vehicles were to the ubiquitous improvised explosive devices, or IEDs, that the insurgents employ to such deadly purpose.
To that equipment toll, for both Afghanistan and Iraq, add 27 Apache attack helicopters; 21 Blackhawk utility helicopters; 23 Kiowa Warrior assault helicopters; and 14 big Chinook cargo helicopters.
Only 17 of the helicopter losses are counted as combat downings.
The rest were destroyed in accidents.

http://www.sltrib.com/search/ci_3513955

[genie_weenie]

18. Iran is a much different story

my comments were concerning Iraq.

Of course, it sickens me that we are there anyway...

[tocqueville]

34. I don't mean an Irani armed intervention

I just meant that the Iranis have the possibility to organize a gerilla at higher level inside Iraq. Which will probably happen if they are hit by the US. Or if a civil war braeks out completely they will back the Shiites to get at a higher level to eradicate the Sunni influence once for all. And that cannot be good for the GIs in between.

[jmowreader]

20. That's bullshit

Think back to those halcyon days when we were still under 200 combat KIA in Iraq. What's the first thing Bush did?

No! It wasn't "set up a sustainable oil industry that trades freely."

No! It wasn't "reestablish basic infrastructural services that had been damaged in the initial attack."

No! It wasn't even "ensure a steady supply of basic foodstuffs and essential medical supplies."

If you said "he had the Iraqi Army disbanded, but didn't collect the keys to the arms rooms, ammunition supply points and motor pools," give yourself a shiny green star out of teacher's star box. If you said the second thing he did was to put guards on the Oil Ministry but not the place Saddam's Corps of Engineers kept all its explosives, you may have a red star too.

I know that if I was an Iraqi division commander and my enemy walked in and told me "go home, we have decided that your services are no longer necessary," I'm walking out the door with the notebook I've got all my battalion commanders' home phone numbers written in.

And frankly, they don't NEED to field a battalion-size maneuver element because mine warfare and small-element close-order battle is working so well for them. Nor is there a need to field the SA-2; that system is great for high-altitude targets but it's not really good for anything else, and it's a grade-A pain in the ass to deploy--six transporter/erector/launcher vehicles, three radars (all huge), trucks to carry reloads, cranes to perform the reloading operations... were I an Old Iraqi Army division commander, I'd much rather have the SA-13 or the 2S6. I would need to shoot down helicopters because that's where you get your best psychological result; you don't shoot down a heli with an SA-2 because it's like shooting your hunting partner with a 12-gauge shotgun instead of a 28-gauge.

[genie_weenie]

22. Okay, I never said our troops aren't being killed for a LIE.

I just stated Iraq won't progress to the 3rd stage of insurgency when the Guerillas field an army and attempt to engage the occupiers with standard tactics and manueveurs.

In terms of who is "winning", YOU are correct that there current force mutlipler (IEDs), shoot-n-scoot mortar fire and small engagements are working for them. I agree with your points, now if you could only let Rummy know this and have him pull us out, we'd both be happy...

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

7. The Brits ran into a bit of trouble in Ireland during their civil war.

Not to mention Afghanistan, South Africa (Boer War), and India. Also, they were involved in a tiff in North America called now, The American Revolution, which was, in fact a civil war. They, however, bright enough to keep out, despite pleas from the south, of the real civil war here.

[dflprincess]

23. There was also that little flap with the Brits in 1812

After that, they decided to stay out their former colonies.

[tocqueville]

10. more like a Berezina...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Berezina

When Napoleon invaded Russia he thought he had won. But what he found was scorched earth and insurgents attacking the Army in the rear. He had to retreat, and a catastrophic part was the passage of the river Berezina.


Comparisons with Khe Sahn or Dien Bien Phu are not accurate, because it was those battles were battles betwwen regular conventional armies, where tactical mistakes led to a disaster.

If a complete civil war breaks out in Iraq, anything can happen with the the government. A new one can ask the US to leave and it would be very difficult (politically) not to comply. Besides one of the US best allies, teh Kurds would probably take their chance of the century and secede.

The US would have to retreat, which isn't an easy task even under "peaceful" conditions (remember the retreat from Vietnam). A retreating army is very vulnerable and might be subject to constant attacks from militias.
In that kind of situation, mistakes happen, groups can be left without support and exposed to slaughter. The probability of accidents is higher and a lot of heavy eqipment abandoned.

Under all circumstances this would be a heavy political and moral blow to the US military credibility and might encourage others (specially in Afghanistan) to seize power when it was deemed so far too dangerous.

[catmandu57]

12. I've always feared the troops there would be swallowed up

just sink beneath the sand. i know they are superior militarily, but, they're vastly outnumbered, millions to 130,000 doesn't make very good odds.

[Jara sang]

26. Psychologically the U.S troops are fucked.

Some kid who joined the army because the steel mill in his home town closed down and he couldn't find work, now he is in I-rack shooting hajjis. He doesn't give a fuck about Iraq or it's people. The Iraqi's are fighting for their religion, their homeland and they are hungry. Those three things are strong motivators. U.S troop goes back to Camp Halliburton where they are treated to Pizza-Hut and all the XBOX they can play, hell maybe the female corporal from down the hall will even indulge him in a little War Porn to boot. This battle was lost for the U.S. long before the first boot hit the ground in country. Americans are selfish gluttons and that doen't translate into any sort of political ideology to fight for, but it's great for herding sheep.

[LittleClarkie]

14. That would make us France

so who will play our part?

[tocqueville]

21. I don't know which defeat you are aiming at...

but I'd like to keep DU free from some prejudices

If you mean WWII, yes the Germans beat the crap of us and of the British too, besides the rest of Europe (which is never mentioned) because they had a superior army and tactics. The UK survived mostly because of tactical mistakes from the Nazis (which doesn't take away anything from their heroic resistance). The military collapse of France was due too to major political incertitude and treason. What is never mentioned in US media either is that the Free French Forces were around half a million towards 1944, played a big role in North Africa and Italy and played a decisive role in defeating the Nazis in the south of France, thus keeping the rear clear for the US and UK in the north west. The landing in Provence is a completely forgotten episode, but probably (together with the Resistance) was the key element to allow the Allies to move towards Belgium and Holland.

If you mean Vietnam, I'd be very modest

If you mean Algeria, it's one of the few cases where a gerilla was militarily defeated (to a very heavy price on both sides). The French retreated not for military reasons but political, because they understood at last that the colonial era was over.

[LittleClarkie]

24. Prejudices? What?

Dien bien phu was mentioned, so as the occupying force during a civil war, I reckoned we'd be France. And if Dien bien phu was about to happen, then that would mean we'd be on our way out, and someone else would be taking over. Perhaps I'm being too literal.

I don't know why you're talking about prejudices.

[tocqueville]

33. I'm too sensitive tonight...

but this aside, I don't think it's a good comparison as I previously said. I don't see a new "Little Big Horn" unless a unit is cut off and without air support for some reason (a sandstorm ?)

It's more likely that you would see constant attacks on retreating convoys. But even if the the losses would be relatively little, the image of the US Army retreating under fire, would have the same tremendous impact when shown on world TVs. Remember what a single "BlackHawk down" had for consequences...

[LittleClarkie]

36. How about more of a Saigon

Declare the "Vietnamization" or in this case "Iraqization" to be a success, then beat a messy retreat and pretend the ensuing FUBAR has nothing to do with us. Twenty years from now we'll have PTSD'd vets and people still insisting that we could have won if those damn liberals wouldn't have gotten in the way.

Won't that be FUN.

[Strelnikov_]

28. And You Forgot A Big One, In My Opinion

The bravery of the common French soldier in WW I, particularly during the first months of the war, when they stopped the German advance on Paris.

[alcibiades_mystery]

25. Ridiculous

Both engagements required massive armies with artillery immune to air strike. There is NOTHING like that among the Iraqi resistance.

No, it will keep on as it's kept on, the slow, implacable loss of two or three Americans a day, and endless rhythm of death, with no big bang to look forward to, no forces in the field to concentrate fire on, just a wisp of the wind, two more, two more, two more. The American temperment can almost stand a big battle more than it can stand the slow, steady, inevitable drip of such a campaign.

[genie_weenie]

27. Spot on.

and sad, 2-3 KIA, 5-7 WIA, day in day out day in day out day in day out day in day out day in day out day in day out day in day out day in day out day in day out day in day out day in day out day in day out day in day out


And for what?

[AlGore-08.com]

32. This is the way the world ends

This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.

http://www.cs.umbc.edu/~evans/hollow.html

[rzemanfl]

29. Shouldn't have mentioned battles, just a unit getting cut off.

Sounded to me today like our troops were staying off the roads.

[Devil Dog Dem]

30. You know we kicked the shit out the enemy at Khe Sahn, right?

It was considered a major debacle for the NVA. Not sure how you are comparing it to Dien Bien Phu when the outcomes were so different.

[rzemanfl]

31. Trying to come up with units that were cut off. Probably not a

good idea considering all the military history experts there appear to be here. What I was trying to get at is that some U.S.units are going to be miles from anywhere with a civil war going on all around them and no idea who to trust (if anyone).

[ladjf]

38. Well, we could turn the Country back over to Saddam.

(Joke)