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Edited on Sun Nov-30-08 09:47 AM by HamdenRice
The $7 or $8 trillion number tends to add up different things. It also tends to make us think of this as an expenditure rather than as federal loans and investments.
The single biggest component of that is probably the Federal Reserve purchase of commercial paper. Commercial paper is short term debt (30 days to 180 days usually) sold by corporations for short term financing. Commercial paper is, in fact, more like a check than a bond. A corporation writes a "check" for $100,000, dated 30 days from today, sells it for maybe $99,000, and the buyer comes back in 30 days and the corporation gives the buyer $100,000. In effect, the buyer has made $1,000 interest.
In normal times, the biggest investors in commercial paper are money market funds -- the accounts many people deposit their money in and use almost like a checking or savings account.
Because these commercial paper "checks" are short term and the buyer knows what's likely to happen in the next 30 days, commercial paper is (was) super safe and money market funds never lost money.
During the credit freeze, Lehman defaulted on its commercial paper, the money market funds freaked out because for the first time since forever they lost money, depositors started withdrawing money, money market funds simply stopped buying commercial paper, and corporations started laying off thousands and stopped buying inventory because they could not sell commercial paper.
The biggest chunk of what is now added up as "the bailout" is the Federal Reserve's program of buying commercial paper. I think that's between $1 and $2 trillion. The Fed already had the legal power to do this under New Deal laws. The Fed is trying to stop the waves of layoffs and freezing of inventory purchases by being the buyer of commercial paper and reestablishing the market for commercial paper. Generally, this is not an "expenditure," because the Fed gets the money back in 30-180 days, just like money market managers. If any commercial paper issuers default, even then, overall the Fed is not likely to lose money because they are making interest on most of their commercial paper purchases and getting back the principal in 30-180 days.
The money to purchase the commercial paper comes from the fact that big banks and the Treasury are required to deposit some of their money in the Fed. Because the Fed pays almost no interest on these deposits, the Fed makes money by taking it in cheap (pays no interest) but earns interest on the commercial paper. Unfortunately, though, this essentially turns the Fed into a hedge fund, taking the risk spread between its deposits and its purchases. The Fed could lose this money of the economy falls off a cliff and many, many corporations default on their commercial paper.
The next big chunk is reciprocal lending agreements between the Fed and other central banks. Because of the turmoil, trillions of dollars, Euros, China RMB, Yen and other currencies are sloshing around world currency markets. Each central bank, including the Fed, has to get currency from other central banks. I'm too lazy to look it up, but IIRC, these reciprocal currency agreements are around another $1 trillion. The Fed lending and borrowing from other central banks should not seem risky nor be considered an "expenditure," but then again the central bank of Iceland, one of the biggest players in Europe, is essentially bankrupt.
Another big chunk of the total bailout -- the AIG, Fannie and Freddie nationalizations -- were specifically authorized by Congress early in the summer.
The $750 billion TARP fund was authorized by Congress this fall. That was the big food fight over Paulson's 3 page plan that ended up being a 100 page plan. Instead of using it for TARP assets, Paulson used $250 billion to buy preferred stock in a half dozen or so of the biggest commercial banks and investment banks. He proposes using the rest to buy TARP assets and to fund purchases of other asset backed securities.
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