"will surely be polls showing the race tightening, perhaps even suggesting that Obama could win it."

[4_Legs_Good]

As we come in to the last few days of the PA campaign, we would do well to re-read this analysis:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=388x3475

Exactly what these guys predicted is coming around. Please, don't set expectations too high. The poll numbers are looking great, but that doesn't negate the analysis of the districts. This quote is particularly relevant:

<b>...but they should be under no illusion – no matter what the final barrage of polls and tail-wagging pundits tease – that a closed primary in Pennsylvania, with the regional delegate breakdown that exists, is somehow winnable, short of a Spitzer-like moment for Senator Clinton between now and April 22.</b>

This race is Clinton's to lose. Keep expectations reasonable and we'll be alright. Anything short of a 20% loss for Obama should be "good news". If he can close it under 10% I'd consider it a BIG win.

DAvid

[MBS]

1. I agree completely (I lived in PA for a time, and can relate to

some of the demographics Barack is up against) . On the other hand, I just listened to most of the town hall meeting that Barack just held in Erie, and he was GREAT. The voter interactions, and the energy I felt in the crowd, did raise my hopes for, at minimum, a much-better-than-predicted showing.

[MarjorieG]

2. Polls can be wrong, and manipulatively so.

PA also has a political machine working for Hillary, as fairly and not. We have the voting machines, and PA's rep as being 3rd worst in the country. All those Women for Hillary fans will vote for her, regardless of anything else. Yhey want to vote for a woman, and not see her humiliated.

In Novemeber we don't have laws to protect the vote or mandate audits. The electronic poll book databases will be privatized and wrong in the switch over.

I really hope we can pull this off. We have a candidate that be a uniter, but any candidate that survives the trashing of character and appeal is rare.

If anyone can do it, Obama's the one.