THE MATH (GE Edition) – Friday, May 16

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH (GE Edition) – Friday, May 16

Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 237
McCain – 290
Ties – 11
Needed to Win – 270
Source: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May16.html">electoral-vote.com

Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 57,926,827 (45.7%)
McCain – 55,822,826 (44.1%)
Undecided/Other – 12,971,346 (10.2%)

Strength of Projection – 35.5%

*********************************************************************


Projected Electoral Votes




Tracking – Projected Electoral Votes



*********************************************************************


Electoral Vote Strength




Tracking – Electoral Vote Strength



*********************************************************************


Projected Popular Vote




Tracking – Projected Popular Vote



*********************************************************************


Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 142 (26.4%)
McCain – 97 (18.0%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 230 (42.8%)
McCain – 221 (41.1%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 317 (58.9%)
McCain – 221 (41.1%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 230 (42.8%)
McCain – 308 (57.2%)

Runaway Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 441 (82.0%)
McCain – 97 (18.0%)

Runaway Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 142 (26.4%)
McCain – 396 (73.6%)


*********************************************************************


Comparison of Poll-Averages:
2008 Obama – 45.2%
2004 Kerry – 46.5% (Final)
2000 Gore – 46.1% (Final)
1996 Clinton – 48.0% (Final)
1992 Clinton – 42.1% (Final)


Tracking – Poll Averages



*********************************************************************


Obama Projected Win Index




Tracking – Strength of Projection



*********************************************************************


Link to spreadsheet: http://www.box.net/shared/df16y7u4ow


.

[grantcart]

1. looks good to start - what sources are you using to determine

electoral college votes?


never mind got it

[phrigndumass]

2. I have a feeling that electoral-vote.com is slightly biased

So I'm double-checking everything with pollster.com. EV.com is making judgment calls on which polls to publish, regardless of whether they are the latest polls.

It's not good for Obama yet, but we're still being held hostage by the two-year-old Senator from New York.

[grantcart]

4. Well if you make the changes in my response below it would be

Mccain 235
Obama 252

Too close to call 61

[phrigndumass]

6. Those will come to us in time. I could make a projection with those numbers

... but it wouldn't be a very strong projection since it's only May.

Plus, in the coming weeks and months, these tracking lines should go north. That'll be nice to watch!

[phrigndumass]

7. Feel free to download the spreadsheet and play with it ...

I'd love to see what you come up with. Changing the numbers in the spreadsheet will also automatically change the charts.

You can move the electoral votes between Strong-Obama, Weak-Obama, MOE, Weak-McCain, and Strong-McCain, and it'll all carry across.

:D

[grantcart]

3. some thoughts

NM and WI should be counted in Obama's side not McCain

New Mexico Obama leads in 5 polls and McCain 1

Wisconsin Obama leads in 8 polls and McCain only 2
plus Kerry carried Wisconsin


Their should be a third category - 'no clear leader' instead of 'tie'

and I would include MI NE OH and SC because they are too close, the results inconclusive and/or too few polls.

[phrigndumass]

5. Very good thoughts! That's why I believe EV.com is slightly biased

They're a little red.

The Strength of Projection deals with the accuracy. 35.5% strength. Not that good yet.

The Projected Win Index is tipping the Margin-of-Error electoral votes to Obama because of states like WI, MI, OH and NM. SC is still figured on McCain's side, and Nebraska will be split by district. The Projected Win Index is my way of catching some of the poll bias. It shows Obama barely winning the electoral vote (by 3 points), even though he's behind in the electoral votes 290-237 according to polls.

[grantcart]

8. There is one thing that shows how this election is going to be won

voter registration

what happens if you add an additional 10 million votes?


Where are the states that 5% increase would have an impact

10%

15%

[phrigndumass]

9. That would be fun (for me) to look into ... lol

I'm projecting popular vote based on 2004 turnout plus population growth over four years.

A five percent increase in turnout (after adding population growth) might be small when looking at each state, but it would definitely have an impact on the whole picture. Especially if Dems add voters and repubs stay home in droves in November.

(note to self: create new column and play with it)

[KSinTX]

10. All things considered

It's probably wise to make sure you maintain a House majority. Just to be safe!

[grantcart]

11. I am feeling pretty stupid right now

I should have alerted you to Poblano a long time ago - your approaches are so similar.

Can we use his work to solve some of the bias problems in the "New Math for GE?"


http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

[phrigndumass]

12. (you're definitely not stupid, lol!!!)

Thanks for the link. We can surely use some of his/her methods to screen for bias and add regression. It's possible you thought I had already seen the Poblano Model because Poblano and I seem to work off the same theories.

We have a slightly different approach, but we end up in the same ballpark eating the same coney from both ends. However, s/he is much more thorough!

It's supposed to rain here tonight and tomorrow, so today I'll do yardwork (I have to mow a full acre) and I'll dig deeper into 538.com later tonight and tomorrow.

I need a better name for my Obama Projected Win Index. It needs to be catchy as hell, so as to garner attention. Any ideas?

[grantcart]

13. Here is some background you may find useful for the new

"Swing State Index' aka THE WIGAND INDEX

In a new cooperative effort grantcart/phrigndumass offer a new indicator that focuses on the critical swing states.

Based on the same concept of the Dow Jones or S+P 500 we are going to use the probablility of _____ key swing states to serve as a basis for measuring the likely electoral college success of the Obama campaign in the General Election.

As new polls are added and update what is happening in the campaign the index will be adjusted to reflect the latest data. It should be a more accurate indicator of electoral college success in the General Election than other indicators like the daily Gallup or Rasmussen Poll.

It will also serve as an indicator on how well the Obama campaign is doing in the areas that are most critical for success. Increased numbers in Illinois or Arizona are unlikely to be relevent in deciding the Presidential Election.

In order to have an appropriate moniker we have decided to call this new indicator the WIGAND INDEX.

It honors the courage of Jeffrey Wigand who used science to speak to power. His courage enabled governments to eventually take the right step and use the courts and the legislature, to advance the will of the people. His actions were essential in laying the foundation for the The Tobacco Master Settlement Agreement (MSA). The Bush administration employed key Tobacco lobbyist Charles Black, Kirk Blalock and most famously Karl Rove who worked for Phillip Morris from 1991 to 1996.
http://www.stopcorporateabuse.org/cms/page1418.cfm

The Bush Administration wiped out most of the penalties against Big Tobacco and settled reducing the penalty from $ 130 billion to $ 10 billion. So in a real sense the Wigand Index is an index of America returning to a better time, a time before the Presidency of George W. Bush.

His story became well known in the movie "The Insider" where he was played by Russell Crowe.

Jeffrey Wigand then returned to the classroom:

For four years Dr. Wigand taught Japanese and Science (Biology, Chemistry and Physical Sciences) at duPont Manual High School, a national school of academic excellence, in Louisville, Kentucky. He received national recognition for his teaching skills when he was awarded the Sallie Mae FIRST CLASS TEACHER of the YEAR in 1996. He was one of 51 teachers recognized nationwide.

Naming this new index the WIGAND INDEX also, by extension, honors all teachers as well.

Jeffery Wigand in Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Wigand
Jeffery Wigand's Home Page
http://www.jeffreywigand.com/index.php

[phrigndumass]

14. Excellent! Maybe a tiny, slight change to honor Wigand ...

"The Wigand Anti-Bias Index"

or

"The Wigand Anti-Bias Index for Swing States"

(or, Wigand Shares?)

My mind is all over the place with this right now, so I may need to let it rest for a day just to rein myself in.

* * * *

Here are my back-calcs ...

Shares over time (read like Intrade):
Date - Obama - McCain - Change
5/02 - 52.78 - 47.21
5/09 - 53.34 - 46.65 - (+0.56)
5/16 - 52.78 - 47.21 - (-0.56)

* * * *

Showing my work:

On May 2, when the following states were in the MOE, my internal index was 42.35. The public had 42.35% confidence that this slate of swing states would go to Obama (using Intrade).
Colorado (9)
Florida (27)
Indiana (11)
Michigan (17)
Nebraska (5)
New Mexico (5)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (20)
Pennsylvania (21)
South Carolina (8)
Texas (34)
Wisconsin (10)

Of the 182 electoral votes above, 42.35% of these would be 77 electoral votes. Add the 207 electoral votes that are going to Obama beyond the margin of error as of May 2, and we arrive at 284 electoral votes for Obama.

284/538 = 52.78 for Obama
254/538 = 47.21 for McCain
These are the Wigand Indices

My internal, alternative projection for May 2 was 294 EVs for Obama.

* * * *

On May 9, when the following states were in the MOE, my internal index was 57.75. The public had 57.75% confidence that this slate of swing states would go to Obama (using Intrade).
Colorado (9)
Florida (27)
Indiana (11)
Michigan (17)
Nebraska (5)
New Mexico (5)
Ohio (20)
Pennsylvania (21)
South Carolina (8)
Wisconsin (10)

Of the 132 electoral votes above, 57.75% of these would be 76 electoral votes. Add the 211 electoral votes that are going to Obama beyond the margin of error as of May 9, and we arrive at 287 electoral votes for Obama.

287/538 = 53.34 for Obama
251/538 = 46.65 for McCain
These are the Wigand Indices

My internal, alternative projection for May 9 was 274 EVs for Obama.

* * * *

On May 16, when the following states were in the MOE, my internal index was 51.66. The public had 51.66% confidence that this slate of swing states would go to Obama (using Intrade).
Colorado (9)
Florida (27)
Indiana (11)
Iowa (7)
Michigan (17)
Ohio (20)
South Carolina (8)
Wisconsin (10)

Of the 122 electoral votes above, 51.66% of these would be 63 electoral votes. Add the 221 electoral votes that are going to Obama beyond the margin of error as of May 16, and we arrive at 284 electoral votes for Obama.

284/538 = 52.78 for Obama
254/538 = 47.21 for McCain
These are the Wigand Indices

My internal, alternative projection for May 16 was 272 EVs for Obama.

[phrigndumass]

16. Wigand Widget

[davidpdx]

15. Keep up the good work

and I'm sure the numbers are going to improve.

[grantcart]

17. Announcing "The Wigand Average"

'Swing State Index' aka THE WIGAND AVERAGE

In a new cooperative effort grantcart/phrigndumass offer a new indicator that focuses on the critical swing states.

Based on the same concept of the Dow Jones or S+P 500 we are going to use the probablility of 12 key swing states to serve as a basis for measuring the likely electoral college success of the Obama campaign in the General Election.

It factors in the 'Wisdom of Crowds' by following the movement of the 12 states based on the daily price of Intrade. We expect that it will be a more accurate indicator of electoral college success in the General Election than other indicators like the daily Gallup or Rasmussen Poll. Its methodology follows that of the Dow Jones Average and will serve the same function - establishing a bench mark and judging the changes in the "Swing State Electoral College Market". Each state will be weighted according to its Electoral College value in the same way that the Dow Jones weights the capital accumulation in each of the companies in its average.

It should be a clearer indicator of the state of the GE campaign than the Gallup or Rasmussen Daily poll which doesn't take into account either the perception of projected outcome (which intrade does) or electoral college values.

In order to have an appropriate moniker we have decided to call this new indicator the WIGAND INDEX.



It honors the courage of Jeffrey Wigand who used science to speak to power. His courage enabled the courts and eventually Congress, to advance the will of the people in holdig the Tabacco industry liable for its assault on public health. His actions were essential in laying the foundation for the The Tobacco Master Settlement Agreement (MSA). The Bush administration employed key Tobacco lobbyist Charles Black, Kirk Blalock and most famously Karl Rove who worked for Phillip Morris from 1991 to 1996.
http://www.stopcorporateabuse.org/cms/page1418.cfm

The Bush Administration wiped out most of the penalties against Big Tobacco and settled reducing the penalty from $ 130 billion to $ 10 billion. So in a real sense the Wigand Index is an index of America returning to a better time, a time before the Presidency of George W. Bush.

His story became well known in the movie "The Insider" where he was played by Russell Crowe.

Jeffrey Wigand then returned to the classroom:

For four years Dr. Wigand taught Japanese and Science (Biology, Chemistry and Physical Sciences) at duPont Manual High School, a national school of academic excellence, in Louisville, Kentucky. He received national recognition for his teaching skills when he was awarded the Sallie Mae FIRST CLASS TEACHER of the YEAR in 1996. He was one of 51 teachers recognized nationwide.

Naming this new index the WIGAND INDEX also, by extension, honors all teachers as well.

More background on Jeffery Wigand here:

Jeffery Wigand in Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Wigand
Jeffery Wigand's Home Page
http://www.jeffreywigand.com/index.php

Background on the Wisdom of Crowds prediction theory
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_wisdom_of_crowds

Intrade link
http://www.intrade.com/

How the Wigand Average Works

The 12 States of the Wigand Average are:

Industrial Midwest/East

Indiana (11)
Michigan (17)
Pennsylvania (20)
Ohio (20)

Rural Midwest

Iowa (7)
Nebraska (5)
Wisconsin (10)
Missouri (11)

West
Colorado (9)
New Mexico (5)

South
North Carolina (15)
South Carolina (8)


These states are considered McCain's base states:




These states are considered Obama's base states:

[phrigndumass]

18. suggested changes

It should be a clearer indicator of the state of the GE campaign than the Gallup or Rasmussen Daily poll or the RCP Average, which don't take into account either the perception of projected outcome (which intrade does) or electoral college values.

changes bolded

Besides that, the text is great!


In my next reply:

Obama's base states (list with EVs)

McCain's base states (list with EVs)

Technical description to follow in another reply.

:D

[phrigndumass]

19. base states added

These states are considered Obama base states:
California (55)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
District of Columbia (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (21)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
Minnesota (10)
New Jersey (15)
New York (31)
Oregon (7)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (11)
Total (200)

These states are considered McCain base states:
Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (10)
Arkansas (6)
Florida (27)
Georgia (15)
Idaho (4)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (9)
Mississippi (6)
Montana (3)
Nevada (5)
New Hampshire (4)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (34)
Utah (5)
Virginia (13)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)
Total (199)

[phrigndumass]

20. Technical description

The Wigand Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win.


That's what I have so far

[phrigndumass]

21. Final draft - title will go here

'Swing State Index' aka The Wigand Electoral Average




In a new cooperative effort, grantcart and phrigndumass offer a new indicator that focuses on the critical swing states for the 2008 General Election.

Based on the same concept of the Dow Jones Industrial Average or S+P 500, we will use probabilities in 12 key swing states to serve as a basis for measuring the likely electoral college success of the Obama campaign in the General Election.

It factors in the 'Wisdom of Crowds' by following the movement of the 12 states based on the daily price of Intrade. We expect that it will be a more accurate indicator of electoral college success in the General Election than other indicators like the daily Gallup or Rasmussen polls. Its methodology follows that of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and will serve the same function -- establishing a bench mark and judging the changes in the "Swing State Electoral College Market." Each state will be weighted according to its Electoral College value in the same way that the Dow Jones weights the capital accumulation in each of the companies in its average.

It should be a clearer indicator of the state of the GE campaign than the Gallup or Rasmussen Daily polls or the RCP Average, which don't take into account either the perception of projected outcome (which Intrade does) or electoral college values.

In order to have an appropriate moniker we have decided to call this new indicator the WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE.

It honors the courage of Jeffrey Wigand who used science to speak to power. His courage enabled the courts and eventually Congress, to advance the will of the people in holding the Tobacco industry liable for its assault on public health. His actions were essential in laying the foundation for the The Tobacco Master Settlement Agreement (MSA). The Bush administration employed key Tobacco lobbyist Charles Black, Kirk Blalock and most famously Karl Rove who worked for Phillip Morris from 1991 to 1996.
http://www.stopcorporateabuse.org/cms/page1418.cfm

The Bush Administration wiped out most of the penalties against Big Tobacco and settled reducing the penalty from $130 billion to $10 billion. So in a real sense the Wigand Electoral Average is an index of America returning to a better time, a time before the Presidency of George W. Bush.

His story became well known in the movie "The Insider" where he was played by Russell Crowe.

Jeffrey Wigand then returned to the classroom:

For four years Dr. Wigand taught Japanese and Science (Biology, Chemistry and Physical Sciences) at duPont Manual High School, a national school of academic excellence, in Louisville, Kentucky. He received national recognition for his teaching skills when he was awarded the Sallie Mae FIRST CLASS TEACHER of the YEAR in 1996. He was one of 51 teachers recognized nationwide.

Naming this new index The Wigand Electoral Average also, by extension, honors all teachers as well.

* * * *

More background on Jeffrey Wigand here:

Jeffrey Wigand in Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Wigand
Jeffrey Wigand's Home Page: http://www.jeffreywigand.com/index.php

Background on the Wisdom of Crowds prediction theory:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_wisdom_of_crowds

Intrade link:
http://www.intrade.com

* * * *

How the Wigand Electoral Average Works

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win.

The 12 key swing states used in the Wigand Electoral Average are:

Industrial Midwest/East:
Indiana (11)
Michigan (17)
Pennsylvania (20)
Ohio (20)

Rural Midwest:
Iowa (7)
Nebraska (5)
Wisconsin (10)
Missouri (11)

West:
Colorado (9)
New Mexico (5)

South:
North Carolina (15)
South Carolina (8)

These states are considered Obama base states:
California (55)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
District of Columbia (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (21)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
Minnesota (10)
New Jersey (15)
New York (31)
Oregon (7)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (11)
Total (200)

These states are considered McCain base states:
Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (10)
Arkansas (6)
Florida (27)
Georgia (15)
Idaho (4)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (9)
Mississippi (6)
Montana (3)
Nevada (5)
New Hampshire (4)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (34)
Utah (5)
Virginia (13)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)
Total (199)

[phrigndumass]

22. forgot the widget lol

i'll add it

[phrigndumass]

23. Announcing the Wigand Electoral Average (WEA): Obama 49.07, McCain 50.93

'Swing State Index' aka The Wigand Electoral Average

.



.



In a new cooperative effort, grantcart and phrigndumass offer a new indicator that focuses on the critical swing states for the 2008 General Election, the Wigand Electoral Average (WEA).

Based on the same concept of the Dow Jones Industrial Average or S+P 500, we will use probabilities in 12 key swing states to serve as a basis for measuring the likely electoral college success of the Obama campaign in the General Election.

It factors in the 'Wisdom of Crowds' by following the movement of the 12 states based on the daily price of Intrade. We expect that it will be a more accurate indicator of electoral college success in the General Election than other indicators like the daily Gallup or Rasmussen polls. Its methodology follows that of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and will serve the same function -- establishing a bench mark and judging the changes in the "Swing State Electoral College Market." Each state will be weighted according to its Electoral College value in the same way that the Dow Jones weights the capital accumulation in each of the companies in its average.

It should be a clearer indicator of the state of the GE campaign than the Gallup or Rasmussen Daily polls or the RCP Average, which don't take into account either the perception of projected outcome (which Intrade does) or electoral college values.

In order to have an appropriate moniker we have decided to call this new indicator the WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE.

It honors the courage of Jeffrey Wigand who used science to speak to power. His courage enabled the courts and eventually Congress, to advance the will of the people in holding the Tobacco industry liable for its assault on public health. His actions were essential in laying the foundation for the The Tobacco Master Settlement Agreement (MSA). The Bush administration employed key Tobacco lobbyist Charles Black, Kirk Blalock and most famously Karl Rove who worked for Phillip Morris from 1991 to 1996.
http://www.stopcorporateabuse.org/cms/page1418.cfm

The Bush Administration wiped out most of the penalties against Big Tobacco and settled reducing the penalty from $130 billion to $10 billion. So in a real sense the Wigand Electoral Average is an index of America returning to a better time, a time before the Presidency of George W. Bush.

His story became well known in the movie "The Insider" where he was played by Russell Crowe.

Jeffrey Wigand then returned to the classroom:

For four years Dr. Wigand taught Japanese and Science (Biology, Chemistry and Physical Sciences) at duPont Manual High School, a national school of academic excellence, in Louisville, Kentucky. He received national recognition for his teaching skills when he was awarded the Sallie Mae FIRST CLASS TEACHER of the YEAR in 1996. He was one of 51 teachers recognized nationwide.

Naming this new index The Wigand Electoral Average also, by extension, honors all teachers as well.

* * * *

More background on Jeffrey Wigand here:

Jeffrey Wigand in Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Wigand
Jeffrey Wigand's Home Page: http://www.jeffreywigand.com/index.php

Background on the Wisdom of Crowds prediction theory:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_wisdom_of_crowds

Intrade link:
http://www.intrade.com

* * * *

How the Wigand Electoral Average Works

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win.

The 12 key swing states used in the Wigand Electoral Average are:

Industrial Midwest/East:
Indiana (11)
Michigan (17)
Pennsylvania (20)
Ohio (20)

Rural Midwest:
Iowa (7)
Nebraska (5)
Wisconsin (10)
Missouri (11)

West:
Colorado (9)
New Mexico (5)

South:
North Carolina (15)
South Carolina (8)

These states are considered Obama base states:
California (55)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
District of Columbia (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (21)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
Minnesota (10)
New Jersey (15)
New York (31)
Oregon (7)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (11)
Total (200)

These states are considered McCain base states:
Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (10)
Arkansas (6)
Florida (27)
Georgia (15)
Idaho (4)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (9)
Mississippi (6)
Montana (3)
Nevada (5)
New Hampshire (4)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (34)
Utah (5)
Virginia (13)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)
Total (199)