New Polls for IA caucus and NH primary (both Dem/GOP)

[WI_DEM]

Iowa
Clinton 35%
Edwards 18%
Obama 14%
Vilsack 12%
Biden 2%
Clark 2%
Kucinich 2%
Dodd 1%
Richardson 1%
Und: 13%

In Iowa 39% of women favor Clinton compared to 30% of men. Among voters who have attended a previous caucus the race is closer with Clinton edging Edwards 29-25 percent. Among those who say 2008 would be their first caucus Clinton leads 44% to Vilsack's 17% with Obama at 12% and Edwards at 7%.

NH:
Clinton 39%
Obama 19%
Edwards 13%
Clark 2%
Richardson 2%
Biden 1%
Dodd 1%
Kucinich 1%
Undecided 21%

43% of NH Democratic women support Clinton compared to 30% of men.

GOP (Iowa)
Giuliani 27%
McCain 22%
Gingrich 16%
Romney 11%
Huckabee 2%
Bowntack 1%
Tancredo 1%
Undecided 15%

NH (GOP)
McCain 27%
Giuliani 20%
Romney 20%
Gingrich 11%
Undecided 15%

www.americanresearchgroup.com

[Miss Chybil]

1. Vedy interestink! nt

[rinsd]

2. Same polling group numbers for Dec 2006

Democrats IA NH

Biden 2% 1%
Clark 1% 2%
Clinton 31% 27%
Dodd 2% 1%
Edwards 20% 18%
Gravel 1% -
Kerry 2% 6%
Kucinich 5% 4%
Obama 10% 21%
Richardson 1% 2%
Vilsack 17% 1%
Undecided 8% 17%

Clinton is trending up. Edwards appears to be holding steady(going up in NH). Obama is the reverse holding steady but going up in IA. Vilsack took a hit if only because he is losing grounbd in his home state. Kucinich took a small hit.

Outside of the big 3 it appears there is trouble early in gaining traction but this is very very early so changes can happen and usually do so rapidly. In 6 months, one of these 2nd tier candidates could make a big push.

[WI_DEM]

5. of course 'trending up' has a great deal to do with the recent media blitz for her announcement

After a month or so and see where the races are at that point. Edwards had a similar bump after his blitz in Iowa when he announced.

[rinsd]

7. Ehhh she just visited the state for the 1st time so as you said bump is expected

ARG seems to be an outlier poll though I think you can attempt to spot trends by comparing other polls done by them.

" After a month or so and see where the races are at that point. "

I am attempting with great difficulty to keep the horse race analysis to 2 or 3 times a month ;-)

[sandrakae]

8. Vilsack should have done better in Iowa.

I am just not ready to jump on the Hillywagon. Edward's does not have a snow balls chance in Hell of getting my primary vote. I am taking a strong look at Vilsack. I sent his campaign website a list of questions. I am waiting to hear back.

[LSparkle]

3. Wow -- what happened to Edwards' lead in Iowa?

Hillary was only there ONE WEEKEND and she's already up by that much????

[rinsd]

4. You have to compare the polls from the same polling group for consistency

There are alot of polls out showing either Clitnon or Edwards in the lead.

In Dec 2006 (the last poll they have) ARG had Clinton at 31% so the jump is not that large.

[WI_DEM]

6. If you look at among previous caucus-goers Hillary only leads by 4-pts

and frankly they are probably the most committed to actually turn out--the Dean camp learned that in '04.