Guardian UK: 'Shares to fall further, banks will go bust'

[marmar]

'Shares to fall further, banks will go bust'


Julia Finch, City editor
Friday August 17, 2007
The Guardian


A top-performing fund manager warned yesterday that the markets turmoil would result in "one of the greatest banking crises in decades".
Ken Murray of Edinburgh-based Blue Planet - whose Worldwide Financials Investment Trust has been one of the best-performing financial funds in recent years - said: "The credit cycle has turned, bad debts are soaring, banks will go bust and stock markets will fall much further."

His views are among the most pessimistic, but institutional UK shareholders are almost universally gloomy about the outlook for the markets and deals.

Anthony Bolton of Fidelity - one of the most respected fund managers in the City - said yesterday he expected the volatility to continue "for the time being". Mr Bolton shocked the City in May when he warned that bank lending had become too risky. He revealed then that he had sold nearly all his financial stocks and had shorted stocks so that Fidelity investors could profit from falling prices.
Mr Murray said he had "liquidated investments, stripped our portfolio down to a small group of retail banks with good growth prospects and that are not exposed to these problems, eliminated gearing, hedged our remaining investments and raised cash in anticipation of much steeper falls to come in shares".

Robert Talbut, chief investment officer at Royal London Asset Management, said the events of the past three weeks were like the secondary banking crisis of 1974, when the Bank of England was forced to launch a lifeboat scheme. ......(more)

The complete piece is at: http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,2150499,00.html

[DS1]

1. EVERYONE PANIC!

[whirlygigspin]

3. "Once I built a railroad, made it run..."

Has the fat lady sung?

http://www.larouchepub.com/eiw/public/2007/2007_30-39/2007-33/pdf/26-29_732.pdf

[FreakinDJ]

8. I guess you didn't re-fi your home

I didn't either

[MUAD_DIB]

11. Festival, Festival! Red Hour, Red Hour!

[Connie_Corleone]

2. Well, that's one hell of a title. eom

[babylonsister]

6. AMEN! I need more info, and maybe some sleep. nt

[Selatius]

4. Mr. Bolton got out early, and we're all fucked paying the bill.

It's like the party is over, and last man left at the party gets stuck with the check.

Unfortunately, most of us middle class folks and working poor folks can't get out now. It's our house.

[FreakinDJ]

5. I was wondering how long it would take

- For the Bush economy to fall

I've been calling it the Re-Fi economy. All the spending we have had for the last 6 yrs has been the product of Re-Fi. The Hummers, the Harleys, the housing, the majority of Bush's "Growth"

But now the "Bill" is due and who is going to pay the piper

I'm sure the Fed knew it. That is why Greenspan got out when the gettin was good. The Credit Corps sure knew it, "Why do you think they passed the New Bankruptcy Laws before the Dems retook the House and Senate.

[burrowowl]

7. If you can

buy gold lingots and bury them in your backyard. Of course in the U$ having actual gold lingots is ILLEGAL. So buy coins and 24-carat jewelry.

[Speck Tater]

10. Owning ingots IS legal, and here's one place to buy them in the U.S.

http://goldprice.org/buying-gold/2007/03/buy-bars-of-gold.html

Google "owning gold ingots" for lots more listing of U.S. dealers than are happy to sell you perfectly legal gold ingots.

[dweller]

9. "Some people

are likening this situation to the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund crisis , but I think it's more like the secondary banking crisis of 1974. A number of secondary and tertiary financial organisations are not going to be able to continue - both in the US and elsewhere." He said the turmoil "could spiral out of control into the real economy".


um, which one is the real economy?
dp

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. By the way campers Asian markets, they are red

tonight

So hang on tight, this ride is just ahem... beginning

[marmar]

13. And I usually like rollercoasters.......

:scared:

[nadinbrzezinski]

14. there there, it will soon be over

one way or the other

:-)

[silverlib]

15. No kidding! Down 545+

I had checked about 9 am their time and it was down just past 150. If this is a common indicator, as it usually is, the market is in for turmoil tomorrow. And Japan injected quite a bit, just like our Feds try to do, to keep it from slipping further.

http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. They injected? WOW what would happen if they didn't

and the Nik is the one to watch tonight

[silverlib]

17. Y1.2 trillion

info at the same link as above.

This is really incredible.

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. By my count the feds have injected so far

half a trillion dollars, now the central bank in Japan does this FOR TODAY

They are trying to keep the floor from falling

The ones I truly worry about are my parents... even a 20% hit on this will hurt them, badly

[silverlib]

19. And it's our tax dollars

being injected. Of course they are printing new money as we speak. This isn't going to be good for anyone, even the "upper" middle class and the rich. When the wealthy start taking it in the pocketbook, perhaps things will change. As always though, it's the vulnerable that will be affected the worst.

Edited to add that I certainly hope your parents weather this drop.

[nadinbrzezinski]

20. The rich will not feel it, not much

serious

And I hope they are fine as well...

Damn I wish they listened to me some time ago

[cliss]

21. Wrong.

"He narrowed it down to a small group of retail banks with good growth prospects and that are not exposed to these problems, eliminated gearing, hedged our remaining investments and raised cash in anticipation of much steeper falls to come..."

Folks, it's amazing how many people have the Rat-on-the-railing mentality. They believe that as the ship starts sinking, THEY will be the ones to jump off and walk away with a wheelbarrow full of cash. Trust me DU:ers, they will not walk away unscathed. If the Japan stock market crashes, it will be like a black hole which sucks in other economies. The US, for one. The world economy will be plunged into a deep recession.

The rats, who thought they could escape to Argentina, will find to their surprise that Argentina just collapsed.

[nadinbrzezinski]

22. Nikkei is not near a crash territory YET

but it is getting hosed...

[Karmadillo]

23. Nikkei down 768 at 1:55 EST

Yikes!

[nadinbrzezinski]

24. Oh god, over 800 points and five percent

this is NOT good

[nadinbrzezinski]

25. This is wild