Jamaica may be catching a break.

[RL3AO]

The hurricane hunters are in Dean and it looks like Dean is now a Category 3 storm. It is starting an eyewall replacement cycle. However, the pressure has dropped greatly and appears like Dean could rapidly intensify once the eyewall replacement cycle finishes. We will see what the NHC says at 11.

But, this comes with some bad news. The reason winds have gone down is because the wind radii has increased dramatically. Hurricane force winds now appear to be going out at least 125 miles. This storm could re-intensify, possibly rapidly before making landfall in Jamaica.

[malaise]

1. Thanks n/t

[bear425]

2. Oh, glad you saw this. I was about to link you to it. n/t

[karlrschneider]

3. Conservation of momentum...like an ice skater sticks his arms out further

and the rotation slows...then he pulls them back in close to the body and spins faster.
;-)

[RL3AO]

4. However, I don't expect the NHC to make it a Cat 3.

Because they have public issues to deal with. Lowering to Cat 3 means people might not take it seriously. It will be changed in post-season analysis where no one that don't follow these storms vividly will see it.

They did that with Floyd. They kept it at 155 mph when recon showed it was much less and changed it to 105 after the season.

[Wilber_Stool]

5. Here's a pic:

Data Elements: Hurricane Dean is now a Category 3 hurricane.
Observation Device: GOES-12 1 km visible imagery
Visualization Date: August 17, 2007 15:50:56

More here

[RL3AO]

6. Thats almost 36 hours old.

[Bluebear]

7. Of course, cat 3 is no picnic.

Stay safe, Jamaica!

[RL3AO]

8. Update

The winds are starting to pick up (makes since, pressure drops then winds catch up in a few hours), but it appears that the outer eyewall will start to choke the inner eyewall off.

[RL3AO]

9. It looks like the replacment cycle is moving along quickly

and it appears this will have some time to strengthen quickly before reaching Jamaica. You might not catch the break afterall.

[malaise]

10. What's the latest?

models are now suggesting we may not take a direct hit.

[RL3AO]

11. Actually, the system going just south of Jamaica is worse than a direct hit.

Because the strongest winds are on the north side of the eye. That will put the worst of it over Kingston.

[malaise]

13. We're getting hit but heading south has to be better

than going right through the island.

[RL3AO]

15. Believe it or not, it is worse.

[Pale Blue Dot]

12. Stay safe, malaise.

I hope that everything will be OK.

[malaise]

14. Thanks n/t