General Odom: Victory not an option, mission can't be accomplished, NIE is a declaration of defeat

[DeepModem Mom]

WP: Victory Is Not an Option
The Mission Can't Be Accomplished -- It's Time for a New Strategy
By William E. Odom
Sunday, February 11, 2007; B01

The new National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq starkly delineates the gulf that separates President Bush's illusions from the realities of the war. Victory, as the president sees it, requires a stable liberal democracy in Iraq that is pro-American. The NIE describes a war that has no chance of producing that result. In this critical respect, the NIE, the consensus judgment of all the U.S. intelligence agencies, is a declaration of defeat.

Its gloomy implications -- hedged, as intelligence agencies prefer, in rubbery language that cannot soften its impact -- put the intelligence community and the American public on the same page. The public awakened to the reality of failure in Iraq last year and turned the Republicans out of control of Congress to wake it up. But a majority of its members are still asleep, or only half-awake to their new writ to end the war soon.

Perhaps this is not surprising. Americans do not warm to defeat or failure, and our politicians are famously reluctant to admit their own responsibility for anything resembling those un-American outcomes. So they beat around the bush, wringing hands and debating "nonbinding resolutions" that oppose the president's plan to increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq.

For the moment, the collision of the public's clarity of mind, the president's relentless pursuit of defeat and Congress's anxiety has paralyzed us. We may be doomed to two more years of chasing the mirage of democracy in Iraq and possibly widening the war to Iran. But this is not inevitable. A Congress, or a president, prepared to quit the game of "who gets the blame" could begin to alter American strategy in ways that will vastly improve the prospects of a more stable Middle East.

No task is more important to the well-being of the United States. We face great peril in that troubled region, and improving our prospects will be difficult. First of all, it will require, from Congress at least, public acknowledgment that the president's policy is based on illusions, not realities. There never has been any right way to invade and transform Iraq. Most Americans need no further convincing, but two truths ought to put the matter beyond question:

First, the assumption that the United States could create a liberal, constitutional democracy in Iraq defies just about everything known by professional students of the topic....Second, to expect any Iraqi leader who can hold his country together to be pro-American, or to share American goals, is to abandon common sense....

(William E. Odom, a retired Army lieutenant general, was head of Army intelligence and director of the National Security Agency under Ronald Reagan. He served on the National Security Council staff under Jimmy Carter. A West Point graduate with a PhD from Columbia, Odom teaches at Yale and is a fellow of the Hudson Institute.)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/09/AR2007020901917_pf.html

[sakabatou]

1. I bet that Bush will say it's hogwash

And not look at it.

[Old and In the Way]

2. "the president's relentless pursuit of defeat "

Couldn't have said it better myself. We cannot win this war, we can only decide the magnitude of our losses.

[Botany]

3. Great Article .... The man is such a liberal too.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/16/Major_General_William_Odom,_official_military_photo,_1983.JPEG/180px-Major_General_William_Odom,_official_military_photo,_1983.JPEG

William E. Odom, a retired Army lieutenant general, was
head of Army intelligence and director of the National
Security Agency under Ronald Reagan. He served on the
National Security Council staff under Jimmy Carter. A West
Point graduate with a PhD from Columbia, Odom teaches at Yale
and is a fellow of the Hudson Institute.


2) We must continue the war to prevent Iran's influence from growing in Iraq. This is another absurd notion.
One of the president's initial war aims, the creation of a democracy in Iraq, ensured increased Iranian influence,
both in Iraq and the region. Electoral democracy, predictably, would put Shiite groups in power -- groups
supported by Iran since Saddam Hussein repressed them in 1991. Why are so many members of Congress
swallowing the claim that prolonging the war is now supposed to prevent precisely what starting the war
inexorably and predictably caused? Fear that Congress will confront this contradiction helps explain the
administration and neocon drumbeat we now hear for expanding the war to Iran.

[DeepModem Mom]

4. Thanks for the photo! nt

[Dr.Phool]

5. K&R...Great op-ed.

I just finished reading it, and came over to post it on DU.

He's saying the exact things I was saying back in late 2002. If they installed a democracy in Iraq, the absolutely best outcome they could ask for was a Iranian backed Shia Islamic state. The demographics alone told us that.

He challenges not only the chimp, but Congress as well.

From op-ed
If Bush truly wanted to rescue something of his historical legacy, he would seize the initiative to implement this kind of strategy. He would eventually be held up as a leader capable of reversing direction by turning an imminent, tragic defeat into strategic recovery.

If he stays on his present course, he will leave Congress the opportunity to earn the credit for such a turnaround. It is already too late to wait for some presidential candidate for 2008 to retrieve the situation. If Congress cannot act, it, too, will live in infamy.

(And also)

his is not to say that Arabs cannot become liberal democrats. When they immigrate to the United States, many do so quickly. But it is to say that Arab countries, as well as a large majority of all countries, find creating a stable constitutional democracy beyond their capacities.

Second, to expect any Iraqi leader who can hold his country together to be pro-American, or to share American goals, is to abandon common sense. It took the United States more than a century to get over its hostility toward British occupation. (In 1914, a majority of the public favored supporting Germany against Britain.) Every month of the U.S. occupation, polls have recorded Iraqis' rising animosity toward the United States. Even supporters of an American military presence say that it is acceptable temporarily and only to prevent either of the warring sides in Iraq from winning. Today the Iraqi government survives only because its senior members and their families live within the heavily guarded Green Zone, which houses the U.S. Embassy and military command.

(snip)

Spoken like a true Commie.

:sarcasm:

[kristopher]

6. Great analysis by Odom

It's worth noting that the OP is just a snippet; the good General has much more to say in the original. In 500 words he says lays out the full range of falsities plaguing our policy process. Thanks for bringing this gem to my attention.

[DeepModem Mom]

8. You're right -- this is a major piece of commentary. nt

[ninkasi]

7. Excellent article

The General is absolutely correct in his analysis of this tragic war of choice...the neocon's choice. Unfortunately, Bush will not listen to reason. He refuses to take any advice that is in conflict with his own opinions. His sheer, dumb as a rock stubbornness is dragging the whole region into a worse hell than exists today.

It's going to be up to us to pressure Congress to act, and if that means impeachment of Bush and Cheney, then so be it. Our most difficult challenge right now is to get Congress to wake up to reality, and realize why we voted in Democratic candidates. We didn't vote them in to preserve the status quo.

[Benhurst]

9. Recommended with enthusiasm

[Robbien]

10. How can the NYT and CNN ignore everthing and start the Iran drumbeat

Today the drums have been taken out and are singing loud and clear, bomb Iran.

The right wing is laughing and laughing loud today.

[caligirl]

11. Presidential Lotto ticket goes to the candidate willing to end the war this year.

Its the only way left to end it.

[Hamlette]

12. brilliant read, everyone should read it...including congress. K&R n/t

[havocmom]

13. Back to the top with ya

:kick:

[lebkuchen]

14. The front page of today's Stripes: "This mission is doable" (Gen. Petraeus)

The new top commander of coalition forces is a wiry New York native whose competitive spirit is embodied by his habit of challenging soldiers half his age to a contest of push-ups.

But it’s not Petraeus’ feats of physical prowess that inspire hope among his fans. It’s his mental acuity. A West Point graduate, Petraeus also earned a Ph.D. in history from Princeton. The topic of his thesis was “The American Military and the Lessons of Vietnam.” He went on to eventually co-author the U.S. military’s new counterinsurgency manual.

http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=43463