"Inform, Convert, Agitate"

[H2O Man]

Tonight we will see Fred Thompson participate for the first time in a republican primary debate in Dearborn, Michigan. As we watch the old actor take the stage at the Ford Community & Performing Arts Center, there is something that I think might be interesting to keep in mind.

When Fred was young, many politicians believed in what was known as Farley's Law. This was the belief expressed by FDR's top political operatives, James Farley, that general elections were decided by Labor Day. Farley was convinced that most voters had made their minds up by Labor Day, and that polls were accurate as far as indicating who would win in November.

Polls became suspect in 1948, when Harry Truman pulled off what was considered the upset of the century. But polls were still viewed as the most accurate measure, both in the primary season and the general election contest.

A huge change in political contests came in 1960, when Senator John Kennedy pulled ahead of VP Richard Nixon as the result of televised debates. As students of political history know, those who listened to the debates on the radio tended to believe Nixon had won, while the larger tv audience was convinced by the visual contrasts that Kennedy won.

Farley's Law was retired during the 1964 campaign. The conservative democratic wing, which was looking to capitalize on the belief that the right wing of the republican party would make Barry Goldwater their nominee (making it possible for democrats to reap liberal and moderate republican contributions and votes), created a new set of tactics: Inform, Convert, Agitate.

The Thompson campaign is hoping to use an updated version of the conservative southern democratic strategy. This is the group that Nixon aide Kevin Phillips recognized could be turned into republican supporters in 1968. The group is now the foundation of the modern republican party.

Thompson aides believe that his tv image is more important than what he has to say. "Inform" is reduced to transforming Fred from a tired old man into a character into a cinematic concept. Thus, tonight we will see an attempt to make style, rather than substance, the primary selling point.

"Convert" can be understood in terms of the idea that in every election, there are always three groups: (a) those who always support you; (b) those who always oppose you; and (c) the undecided. In a primary, the "undecided" include the supporters of those candidates who drop out early. When we watch the dynamics of the debate tonight, it will be clear which candidates' supporters Fred plans to pick up in early 2008, to pull ahead of Rudy and Mitt.

"Agitate" is their plan for the general election. The Thompson forces are convinced they will be running against Senator Clinton. They will attempt to agitate the American publc by using televised images of her that they believe are divisive.

When you watch the debate tonight, keep this in mind.

[babylonsister]

1. So undecideds are supposed to buy his form without substance.

I'd like to think people aren't that dumb, though I know better. For myself, I might just watch for comedic value! I just don't see how they're going to make a prince out of this frog.
And thanks for that little history lesson, H20 Man. Very interesting.

[H2O Man]

3. If you look at the

majority of presidential elections from 1980 to 2004, it is very difficult to argue that substance is as important as form. One could search the streets of every town and city in America, for example, and not find a politician less qualified to be president than the current resident of the White House. And the deciding factor, so far as the selling of an inferior product, is always tv. Willie Horton, swift boat liars, compassionate conservatism, morning in America ..... a background of red, white and blue balloons versus bogeyman scare tactics is always the republican tactic -- and it will be in 2008, for sure.

[NewJeffCT]

4. Look at 2000

They made a guy educated at elite prep schools and Ivy League colleges with an arrest record, admitted alcoholism and who dodged the draft, who came from an aristocratic New England family into a down-home Christian regular guy and a cowboy you'd like to have a beer with.

If they can do that with Bush, they can certainly do it with Thompson.

[H2O Man]

5. In 2000 and 2004,

the republicans attacked guys who served in Vietnam, even accusing John Kerry of being a cowardly liar. Yet their candidate was George W. Bush!

[blondeatlast]

16. The role model will be John Wayne in the Flying Tigers.

[KoKo]

22. At least John Wayne and St. Ronnie had appealing demeanors and physical features...

Thompson's hound dog, grim, dour appearance after 7 years of Happy Doofus Clown...? It just doesn't work...no matter how hard I try to stretch my imagination of what a paid media and the best PR Ops in the world can do, though...:shrug: Even discreet BoTox wouldn't work.

[Toots]

2. Reminds me very much of Susan B Anthony

"Educate, Organize, Agitate, let this be our battle cry"

[spanone]

6. thompson's only ace-in-the-hole is television exposure

his mental prowess is nil....i've lived in Tenn. and have watched his less than impressive political career. he has little if anything to offer this country, except 'being on tv'.

[H2O Man]

7. Right.

He has to stick to delivering scripted lines that are bumper-sticker material. And to scowl at appropriate times. That's as deep as he goes.

[myrna minx]

8. Thompson seems like the kind of guy who's more interested in what's

on the craft service table than developing his own "platform." I've never witnessed a more apathetic candidate, who already seems bored and exhausted with his own "campaign." That said, given the dubious rise of baby bush, I guess nothing would surprise me.

I wish that I knew who to attribute this to, but I heard an amusing reference about Thompson last week: He has more demand than supply.

[H2O Man]

9. "more demand

than supply"!!! I hope the democrats remember that line.

A number of interesting republicans have congealed in the Old Fred Camp, from Dick Cheney's daughter, to Mary Matalin, to their ex-presidential hopeful himself, ex-senator Macaqua.

Will Newt G be his VP choice?

[myrna minx]

10. I don't think Newt's ego would tolerate the VP position.

His sense of entitlement, self importance and vanity would, I think, prohibit him from being second banana. I think Thompson would require another "man behind the curtain" type like Cheney. I do admit that Matalin's involvement makes me cringe, because for one thing, where Matalin goes, so goes Carville. I'm interested to see if Karen Hughes resurfaces, and who she's grooming.

[H2O Man]

11. I think that

if Old Fred gets the nomination, there is a very good chance that Newt will be his "choice" for VP. Newt has been very active in the OVP with Cheney, and he understands that it is a seat of neoconservative power. Newt's activities with pals Dick and Scooter included, but was not limited to, going to CIA HQ to pressure analysts to change their interpretations of the dire WMD threat posed by Iraq, and helping co-chair the first official "work-up on Wilson" meeting, held in Cheney's office in March 2003 (months before either Wilson's op-ed, or Novak's column). He was preparing to run with Senator Macaqua, until he self-destructed.

[myrna minx]

12. Very good points, many I hadn't considered.

Your post sent shivers down my spine. I didn't know that Newt was planning a run with Allen, so this triangulation makes sense. How do you think that Newt will fare as the VP nomination, given his propensity
for self-aggrandizement. His vanity seems like it would be a liability to their "mission."

[H2O Man]

14. In the "Agitate" phase,

republicans always look for a pitbull for VP. In that context, Newt begins to make a bit more sense. For the past year, I've warned DUers not to take Newt for granted, simply because he is an obnoxious and has the stench of scandal. Those qualities may take attention of the top of the ticket.

[myrna minx]

17. I can now see that I've been too dismissive of Gingrich.

You, as usual, have given me much to consider. What you've reasoned, makes sense. It's chilling, because for all that I read and ponder, this option completely slipped past me. This is why I love this place. :hi:

[conscious evolution]

32. "DUers not to take Newt for granted,"

Good advice.
The rabid right wingers here in ATL still think he walks on water.
How long has he been out of office?Long enough that he can sorta distance himself from bushco.
Of course we would and will be all over any such attempts but there are also plenty of people in the general population who are just dumb enough to fall for it.

[H2O Man]

34. Yep.

"A good man who fell short, but who has repented." That sells to a certain population.

[KoKo]

19. very interesting what you say about Newt....

I had this brain stab yesterday when I heard that Cheney's daughter and Macacca were onboard. Mary Matalin was surprising enough...but with the addtion of the two others...I thought..."What's Up?" Why would any of those people work for Fred Thompson who is so unappealing in every way...and I came up with what you did... Those folks want another VP to run the next President like Cheney ran Bush...so Newt popped into my mind, too.

Are they really that crazy that the only candidate they could get that would accept Newt was Thompson? They had to find a lazy, clueless one who would be happy with his Veep running things? That's the only thing that doesn't make sense of what seems to be "the plan." None of the other Repugs would accept Newt? :shrug:

[H2O Man]

25. It is worth

considering if any other republican would have accepted running to front for a Cheney (vice)presidency in 2000? You need an underqualified figurehead on the top of the ticket, in order to put the puppeteer in the OVP.

[Me.]

13. Ouch!

'the old actor '.

As to the agitate section of your essay, I think it's important to remember that Thompson's campaign can be likened to a neo-con reunion. They're all there and while Fred is coming off something like Deputy Dawg, we shouldn't be lulled into thinking there won't be a fierce battle for the nomination. These people will do anything to win, even start a war, and Liz Cheney is one of his top advisors.

Hi Jim :hi:

[H2O Man]

15. Exactly.

It is a neoconservative/neoliberal ticket.

[Blackhatjack]

18. Duncan Hunter just said "Republicans cannot win without the Reagan Democrats...."

IMHO this is where many Repubs are putting their hopes on Fred Thompson --that he can draw in the Reagan Democrats. They also are hoping he can hold the Right Wing Conservative Fundamentalist vote for the Republicans (which I doubt, given the backing away from 'The Tennessee Stud' reputation well known on the Hill).

I think Thompson has been strongest when he presented an image pundits could comment upon, but did not have to say anything. I have heard him speak a couple of times, and he is not a dynamic speaker like Reagan --no matter how hard they try to make him to be.

Exhibit A was Thompson's speech to Iowa voters this past week in which he had to ask for a round a of applause at the end of his remarks, and then he said "I had to drag that out of you." Shuster showed the video of it last night on Countdown. Simply stunning.

I do not think Thompson is the Repubs answer to no acceptable candidate. After tonight the next round of polling should tell the tale. I predict he is already a 'dead man walking.'

[KoKo]

20. He's so unappealing...I don't think even Karl Rove or Mark Penn could make

Thompson into Ronald Reagan. I know the MSM keeps putting out "Reaganesque" when they talk about Thompson...but when you see him speak and look at him...there's NO WAY even the most clueless RW brainwashed knuckledragger could see any resemblence... Fred Thompson talking about "Shining City on a Hill?" :eyes:

[Blackhatjack]

21. When I heard Thompson speak on the stump the first time I was STUNNED...

I thought his career as an actor would allow him to create the illusion that he is an engaged politician.

NOT SO. He is not a dynamic speaker. He had trouble reading his notes. He was obviously unhappy to be there and speaking, and it showed. He read the 'Reagan style' quotes with no energy, and appeared to be tired.

THe second time I saw him I expected a much improved speaker. NOPE. Almost a carbon copy of the first.

I know the top NeoCon handlers have been working with him, but I doubt they have the material there to create anything close to a Reagan-like candidate.

[KoKo]

23. See my post #22....the more I thought about it ....the more unbelievable

the "remake" of Fred could be.. This has to be desperation of some kind that the Cheney, Matalin, Macca wing of the party couldn't find anyone who would associate with them...if they think they can run Newt behind Fred Thompson.

I guess at this point anything is believable with these Repugs and their ability to distort reality to bend it to their will. Maybe they've finally met their downfall with this guy, though. One can hope.

[myrna minx]

24. Thompson's stump speeches epitomize the term "phone it in." n/t

[H2O Man]

26. Very interesting points.

Reagan knew he was playing a role, and even when he read the wrong lines -- or went way off-script -- his feigned sincerity carried him. Fred doesn't have the energy. He can pose for still shots, and hope his cinema clips mimmick republican reality enough to keep him in the running. But I agree that he cannot run an actual campaign -- he can only be an actor in a made-for-tv docu-drama.

[antigop]

27. Perhaps they could call on Burson-Marsteller to help market the Thompson "brand"?

http://www.burson-marsteller.com/Practices_And_Specialties/Pages/Brand_Marketing.aspx

[H2O Man]

28. Ha!

Very good!

[antigop]

29. Glad you liked it! (I was only sort of half-joking, though) n/t

[H2O Man]

30. It's good to

be able to laugh about serious issues sometimes, too. I think you are on target with your observation.

[KoKo]

31. I dunno...H2OMan....... The Hope of Reagan sort of died in that debate...

but maybe it's because I missed the first hour..(I got home late) and he did better than what I watched in the second hour. His suit and tie were wrong. He looked ill prepared and flicked his nose at one point which looked like something ...not good...and he seemed to be listening to what other folks were saying ...along with what Matalin and the rest had briefed him on...and he finally went on "auto-pilot" where he looked like the "dead" in responses. Maybe he's a very honerable guy....a nice guy...one we'd like to have a beer with ...who has been taken over by BUSH HANDLERS LOOKING FOR THE NEW REAGAN CLONE...

Whatever it is...he didn't seem to be playing the "Reagan Movie Part" very well...he looked down, disgruntled and bored interspersed with a few statements of what he might "really feel" that didn't sound very Repug.

What a sad thing it is...that Cheney folks would latch onto him and suck the blood out of him. I just didn't see "fire in the Belly" with him...so it means someone is running him. But...Newtie should have latched onto Brownback or Huckabee if he really wanted to creat a rumpus.

Does it mean that Mitt Romney wouldn't have anything to do with any of them?

[H2O Man]

33. Mitt Romney

is an odd fellow. I think that one concern the rabid right has with him is that he would be a tough sell in the national election. He seems to lack the brain to be washed that his father had.

[KoKo]

38. But..to this viewer...of that debate in last half hour...he seemed more Presidential

than any of the others...because he seemed to be more the FUTURE of the Repug Party than their past of "ill repute" which he others seemed to be flounting. I think their old Religious/RW/Pedophile/Homophobic Politics of Distruction is DEAD...

But...what do I know...given that I'm in depths of dispair about what our Dems are doing.

I guess I just think the ROT ON THE RIGHT...is as BAD OR WORSE than the Rot on the LEFT.

I think both sides have enough stuff that the electorate might be getting into a very sour mood...and how many folks out there in C-Span's WJ Freeperland even watched the Kudlow & Co. CNBC BUSINESS DEBATE of the Repugs? Not many...unless it's repeated and those who support them give to their CHURCH and think they aren't IN WALL ST. MARKETS! (Little do they know...but they might just be waking up...who knows...one can't count on them to wake up...I'm not waiting for anything except Al Gore to come in to the race...in some way.)

:hug:

[blondeatlast]

35. "Thompson aides believe that his tv image is more important than what he has to say."

Isn't that pretty much how we got W?

When I was a non-wonk back in 2000, I didn't see W as that bad. The powers that be managed to make him into a mild-mannered moderate--he seemed as bland (and nearly as harmless) as a slice of Wonder Bread.

I was a bit mistaken...

The other R candidates at least have taken SOME risks and their missteps are there for the nation to see.

Ol' Fred's got a whole lot of nothing but may be easily molded. Reagan was a Democrat (SAG president at that) before he met Nancy Davis. She may seem quiet, but she carries a big stick (I know this from advocating stem-cell funding). She managed to mold him into the man we remember.

Fred's wife is a DC bigwig behind the scenes--might she be part of the strategy?

I wasn't going to watch, but damn, you tweaked my interest with this and your Matthews post. :toast:

[H2O Man]

36. Do you think

it was worth your taking the time to watch?

[blondeatlast]

37. I will watch the repeat; time difference. nt

[renie408]

39. I got news...if they are going to try to transform him from a tired old man

into ANYTHING else, they had better get out the Botox and an iron. He just looks ROUGH. And stupid. Rough and stupid, that sums up Fred Thompson for me.

[Me.]

41. The Word Would Be

Dud

[H2O Man]

40. Yikes!

Old Fred isn't doing well.