What is the REAL unemployment % ? Here's a clue.

[flamin lib]

I don’t really NEED to work but would like to make some extra cash to support some hobbies I plan to cultivate. So I’m making applications for part time work at places like Home Depot and Lowes. I get a call back from one of my apps – neither of the ones mentioned – and have a really nice pre-screen interview. In the process I learn that there are over 100 applications for this one part time position. The screener says not to worry because all of them look like they need full time work and were cut for that reason. One hundred apps for one part time $10/hour job.

My daughter is also looking for work. She has eight years experience as a para-legal. Working through six recruiters and in five weeks will have her first interview today. The recruiters all tell her “the field of candidates is very large right now.”

Can someone explain to me how this can be if unemployment is at 4%? Could it be that the switch from payroll survey to household survey as a method of employment calculation cooked the books?

Nawww, couldn’t happen. Bush wouldn’t lie to us . . .

[MADem]

1. If you aren't looking, or are long-term unemployed, you eventually drop off the rolls.

It's bullshit accounting, like everything this administration does.

[unpossibles]

3. exactly

I got uneployment comp for 6 months, but it took me more than a year and a half longer to find a good job. I worked where I could doing part time and contract work, but it was not sustaining and needed a job. Technically I was unemployed for 6 months; in the real world it was 2 years. Again, I was working and bringing in some money, but were it not for my wife's job, we'd have been sunk. How many people don't apply or don't qualify?

[zabet]

7. Mathemagicians do the counting of the unemployed...

*poof* - they don't count because they are not looking for a job
*poof* - they don't count because they no longer draw un-employment
*poof* - they don't count because.....etc.

:puke:

[againes654]

2. They also don't count people that have been unemployed

longer than a year.

[rocktivity]

4. In college, I was told you should automatically triple the "official" rate

to accomodate the underemployed, June grads, returning homemakers, and those who have lost their unemployment benefits, and those who have been out of work so for long they're not counted anymore.

:headbang:
rockantion

[raccoon]

13. What class was this where you heard that?

It wouldn't surprise me. Except seems to me there are SOOOO many underemployed!

[rocktivity]

18. It was a sophomore sociology class

--over twenty years ago.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Demit]

5. "all of them look like they need full time work and were cut for that reason"??

How peculiar. I know it has nothing to do with your point, but I found that very odd. Especially the "not to worry" reassurance they gave you.

[flamin lib]

11. retension

This is a permanent part-time position and they don't want to hire someone who will leave for a full time position elsewhere.

My reasons for wanting part time were compelling and long term.

[kineneb]

22. no benefits for part-time work

two workers at part-time are cheaper than one at full-time: no requirement to offer benefits.

[acmavm]

6. 'They' lie.

[Wapsie B]

8. Gosh, government accountants wouldn't cook the books

or massage the numbers would they? :shrug:

[Anywho6]

9. I believe they have been cooking the unemployment numbers...

...and the economic numbers for years. I base this on a hunch because this regime is so rife with liars, thieves and thugs. This country is in serious economic trouble.

[MADem]

10. I think the FIRST THING the next President should do is get a TRUE accounting.

And PUBLISH it, early and often. We need to know what the true numbers have been these last two terms.

[raccoon]

12. I agree they've been cooking the numbers, but it didn't start with this admin. nt

[Anywho6]

19. Agreed. But these asshats have taken it to a new level. n/t

[Atman]

14. I posted about his yesterday; 3 replies and 3 recs, but it sunk like a stone.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=2059080&mesg_id=2059080

The unemployment numbers and the economic numbers in general are total bullshit.

.

[mvccd1000]

15. Where are you?

My best friend is a Legal Secretary in Phoenix, and she frequently gets calls from other recruiters asking her to jump ship. She's making almost 50k a year.

My brother is a project manager at an airline; he told me last week that he's having a harder time getting people to apply for his jobs than he has in several years. There are too many jobs out there paying more than he can pay.

My roommate just graduated from cosmetology school, and she's had three job offers. She can't take any of them until she takes her state boards and gets her license, though.

I realize those examples constitute an incredibly small sample, but those are the stories I have to go by right now. It's certainly not the gloom-and-doom it was when I was in Michigan in the early 80's. THAT was some unemployment!

[Yupster]

20. In West Texas

there is no unemployment rate.

Every business in town is crying for workers. The oilfields have soaked up workers from every industry so every job from teaching to waitressing is begging for workers.

[Yavin4]

16. The UE Rate Is A Political Number, Much Like The CPI Number

It's in the government's interest to massage these numbers to the public. The UE rate is low because of these major factors:

(1) Asset Inflation of Home Prices

Because of historically low interest rates, we've had a bubble in housing prices. This has meant that current home owners could withdraw the "inflated" equity out of their homes like an ATM machine. Hence, for a family of four living in a house, one parent could stay home, withdraw money out of the home, and they could live without missing a beat. The effect of this on the UE rate is that that parent is no longer looking for work. Thus, a lower UE rate.

(2) The Use of Temp Workers

You are counted as employed even when you work a one day temp job within the two weeks of the UE survey. Again, lower UE rate.

[eShirl]

17. I recall the Reagan Administration made changes to how the unemployment # was calculated

If it were calculated today the way it were calculated pre-Reagan, the figure would most likely be higher than it is now.

[defendandprotect]

21. I would guess that unemployment is at least at 14% . . . and then how many homeless????

And look at the prison population -- 2 million????

They changed all the formulae for reporting unemployment ---

[leftofthedial]

23. unemployment in real terms (rather than the absurd economist terms)

or the far more absurd bush cabal terms

is about 20%

factor in underemployment and it is pushing 45%

[tom_paine]

24. ALL Bushie numbers are half-truths or utter fabrications. They lie like Soviets.

That unemployment number is as phony as a 1978 Soviet Agriculture Production Report.

Embarrassing, but true. Pay no attention to Bushie Numbers and Statistics, they have no basis in reality...none at all.