TPM: Edwards Campaign Makes Case for Electability

[AmBlue]

In New Memo, Edwards Campaign Makes Most Extensive Case Yet For Electability
By Greg Sargent - October 18, 2007, 10:47AM

We've just obtained an advance copy of a campaign memo drawn up by Edwards' pollsters in which the most extensive case yet is made for his electability in a general election.

The memo crunches a bunch of numbers and argues that he's better positioned than either Hillary or Obama to win in November of 2008:

Nationwide general election polling shows John Edwards is the Democrat with the best chance of defeating the Republican candidate in the 2008 general election for President. Edwards is the only Democrat with a significant lead in a head-to-head match-up against Republican frontrunner Giuliani. Against the other three major Republican candidates, Edwards’ average margin of victory is identical to or better than that of Barack Obama, and significantly higher than Hillary Clinton’s average margin.

Edwards also outperforms the other Democratic candidates in match-ups with Republican candidates in key battleground states including Iowa, Missouri, and Ohio. Further, unlike other Democrats who must “run the table” in states where Democrats have been competitive in recent elections, Edwards brings new states into play. This provides alternate scenarios – and a margin for error – when it comes to amassing 270 electoral votes.

More excerpts after the jump. Dig in.

Late Update: The full memo, with lots of charts and numbers, is right here in our TPM Document Collection.

• In looking at the overall win-loss-tie records, Edwards again stands out with easily the best total record.

• At least one poll in the last four months shows Clinton losing to every Republican challenger, even Romney and Thompson, who neither defeat nor tie either Obama or Edwards, confirming Clinton as the weakest major Democrat in the general election.

• Edwards’ status as the best Democrat against frontrunner Giuliani is again confirmed by this measure, as he suffers no losses, while both Clinton and Obama struggle to win more than they lose in that match-up.

State-by-state electability:

• Even more important than nationwide popular vote polls, Edwards outperforms other Democratic candidates in key battleground states, including Missouri, Iowa, and Ohio.

<snip>

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2007/10/in_new_memo_edwards_campaign_makes_most_extensive_case_yet_for_electability.php

[Donnachaidh]

1. And the response will be ---

"DAMN! Did you see that HOUSE he built?" -or- "DAMN! I wouldn't spend that MUCH on a haircut!"

But he still keeps getting the good press. :bounce: As he should. :bounce:

[AmBlue]

2. Not nearly enough good press, tho....

To be heard over the constant drone of the Hillary jackhammer.

[Donnachaidh]

9. True -- but he's doing remarkably well for someone without a *paid chorus*

He's quietly racking up major support while the others keep blathering about polls. He's going to be on Maher's show tonight - and that's sure to give him another bump. :bounce:

[mod mom]

10. I agree there needs to be some oversight of equal time in primaries. It's

sickening how blatant the media slant is.

[pioneer111]

26. Somehow Edwards IS being heard

Because in head to head matchups with Republicans he wins.
It is the Democrats that put Clinton ahead because of nostalgia for Bill and the 90's.

They need to wake up that it is 2007 and a different approach is needed.
Edwards is that rare candidate who is progressive and yet many conservatives like him.

He will be on Bill Maher tonight and he and Elizabeth will be on Ellen DeGeneris on Monday. Go Edwards. :applause:

[AzDar]

3. Edwards is our best hope. Go, Johnny, go!

:kick:

[GreenTea]

4. Alright, alright, alright, alright, alright....alright! (Cream) always rises!

From live Cream....at the Fillmore!

YES Johnny Edwards Yes! :bounce:

:smoke:

[LaPera]

5. John Edwards - our man...our country's man!

[maximusveritas]

6. Looks like the Edwards campaign is dishonestly cherry-picking which polls to include

They say Edwards hasn't lost to Guiliani in any polls, but he has.
The 07/12 - 07/14 Zogby poll had him losing to Guiliani by 3.
They conveniently left that poll out of their analysis. I didn't check the rest of it, but that one really stood out as an obviously dishonest omission.

[1932]

7. Thats's a memo to the campaign. It wasn't produced by the campaign.

[maximusveritas]

8. Oh I see. I guess it's their job to spin the polling results in Edwards' favor,

but I think they went too far in this case.

[waiting for hope]

11. You know - it's a funny thing about polls -

You like them when they are in your candidates favor and you hate them when they are not.

I happen to like this one!

[Catchawave]

13. Me too...but he consistently beats the GOP in head-to-heads

Those are my FAVORITE polls. :hi:

[waiting for hope]

25. Those are mine too!

:hi:

[Ninga]

12. Please keep in mind that Edwards has not spent on media buys (TV). But he WILL, and when they hit,

just watch what happens.....

Also, I expect that he will be outstanding at the next debate, Oct. 30th.

[tkmorris]

14. Exactly

He is hoarding his campaign money, through necessity I admit. Eventually though, he will make his play. He has enough to do that much at least. When he does, he will get a bump. It might win him Iowa, and from there look out.

His policy proposals are the best of anyone bar Kucinich. He is the progressives best hope. Send him MONEY!

[Ninga]

15. I sent him money at 5 AM this morning ! Edwards will be the first candidate to break

the "money paradigm" which is so desperately needed in our political process.....raising enough money to get the job done, and doing it with public funding and WITHOUT LOBBY MONEY.



Our country is NOT better served if the only winners are candidates who raise obscene amounts of money.

[tkmorris]

17. Amen my friend

I think maybe I should send him more money. Money I don't have, but I think it's worth it.

He needs US, the people, to finance him. Hillary and Obama have the corporations and the lobbyists, Edwards needs US.

[Ninga]

19. One way of looking at it, sending Edwards money is an "investment in America"

For every $50 or $100 bucks you send him....the end result may reach the poorest of the poor, some kid in school, or Habeas Corpus being restored !

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. When You Look At All The Polls It Seems That Edwards, Obama, And Clinton Have A Decent Shot...

It seems Edwards and Clinton are a push when it comes to electability with Obama slightly behind...

I have question about Edwards' killer instinct... For a trial lawyer he seemed almost meek in his debate with Darth Cheney...His performance made me think of my dear friend and my mom's attorney who has won several eight figure verdicts, and was voted by her peers as one of the one hundred best trial lawyers in America, the same honor that was bestowed upon John Edwards when he practiced law...
She would have ripped Darth Cheney a new face...

The Rethuglicans are the most low down, dirty, and vicious vipers to come down the pike in the annals of political history...They will do anything to win...Will John Edwards?

[tkmorris]

18. Kerry was head of the ticket at that time

And he issued the instructions. Edwards chomped at the bit the whole time but Kerry wanted a more reserved intelligent approach. Simply a mistake in strategy.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Both Him And Lieberman Debated Cheney

Like they were two buddies shooting the shit over a beer...


I wanted to pull an Elvis on my tv set...

[Ninga]

21. I agree. And to add to your thought, remember even the media thought Edwards was

"presidential' and won handily the last debate.

I look for a repeat performance at the next debate, Oct. 30th.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Cheney Made That Crack About Never Seeing Edwards In The Senate

Cheney made that crack and lie about never having met Edwards before the debate with the implied assertion that he was derelict in his duties because he was running for president from the moment he got elected senator...Edwards should have made that fat, old, mechanically kept alive bastard eat those words...

As for the media saying Edwards was presidential, that's the same media that said Asshat In Chief won in 00 because he was Wally Cleaver and Al Gore was Eddie Haskell...

[Ninga]

23. The Asshat that the media said won, won. Are you saying Edwards is an Asshat just because

the media said he won the last debate?

:shrug:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. I Don't Think It's Possible To Infer That From My Post And I Re-Read It Three Times

I think the media's take on most issues is vacuous and bathetic, and therefore unreliable...

[Ninga]

28. Well you are most likley right. But gee wiz, give me a little crumb will ya' and let me say

the media said Edwards won even if they are unreliable.

[spinbaby]

24. I think Edwards can get support from Republicans

This is an opinion based purely on knowing a couple of grumpy old Republican men who like Edwards for his positions on labor. Mind you, these are Bush voters who think Hillary is witch and Obama is a terrorist. But they're former union guys and they like Edwards.