Which state is the most demographically representative of the US?

[LisaM]

I'm asking this in connection with the primary/caucus brouhaha. I would think that Michigan would basically be as representative as most, with its former manufacturing base, mixture of urban and rural, geographic scope, borders with another country, shoreline, and large ethnic range, but maybe I'm wrong. Is there an actual state that fits this definition? If so, they should be the first primary state.

[jpgray]

1. At minimum I think you'd need three states for a general representation

[Romulox]

2. There is no state that fits that bill--that argument is just a justification

for shutting the majority of us out of the primary system.

Moreover, the argument that the current system gives "the little" guy a shot is given lie by the massive lead the big money candidates (Obama and Clinton) have in both NH and Iowa...

[sutz12]

3. A state of confusion......? nt

[Bluerthanblue]

17. i'm a native

:hi:

[Warpy]

4. Politically, I've found NM to be about right

The north is a little more urban and definitely more Democratic. The south, with an abundance of Texan ranchers, mirrors Dixie. Santa Fe is full of crystal gazers, representing the flakier parts of the west coast, and we also have a burgeoning film industry.

The only thing we're missing is a Rust Belt.

[LisaM]

11. And a shipping industry, and an ethnic base

I think that there are probably plenty of Hispanics and Native Americans in NM, but what about the following ethnic groups that, in their turn, came to the US: Irish, Italian, Eastern European, Asian, Middle East?

For example, what is the percentage of African Americans in NM, and how does it match that of the US as a whole?

[LeftyMom]

5. California

Mixed urban, suburban, rural
Ethnically diverse
Mixed economy (ag, service, technology, manufacturing)
Religiously diverse (though generally less religious than the country at large)

No surprise really, since we have the largest population.

[XemaSab]

13. Yeah, but we've got a HUGH Hispanic population

which the rest of the country doesn't have.

[LeftyMom]

18. but they will. nt

[XemaSab]

15. Looks like New York State may be the winner

US Race/Ethnicity
White 74.67%
Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 14.50%
African American 12.12%
Asian 4.32%
Native American and Alaskan Native 0.82%
Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 0.14%
Other/multiracial 7.92%


Demographics of New York State
White 74.98%
Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 16.51%
Black 18.26%
Asian 7.18%
AIAN 0.99%
NHPI 0.19%
Multiracial 1.5%

[Igel]

21. Do people only vote race and ethnicity?

Does "demographics" also cover sex, education, religion, values, employment, etc., etc.?

Do we really want to say that the whites and blacks in NY are equivalent to the whites and blacks in Alabama in everything, including politics, but percentage of population?

Hence the problem. The key term "demographics" in the OP is undefined, or insufficiently defined to be a useful word. It means the question's a Rohrschach test, but doesn't actually have an answer unless the person giving the answer provides his/her set of assumptions, and that the answer given doesn't mean anything unless the assumptions are made explicit.

[ChiciB1]

6. Mexico? China? Or Cuba?? Should Have Said Which Country... n/t

[Rhythm and Blue]

7. Hm...I'd go with Ohio, probably. nt

[Lithos]

8. demogaphically?

Most advertising and polling people tend to use Ohio as the quick test bed.

[porphyrian]

9. As soon as one were identified, political strategists would figure out a way...

...to convince people who favor their party or candidates to move there (or opposing people to move away), throwing off the balance. It may be best that we don't have a single state that's representative of the entire Union. It would likewise probably be best not to put so much importance on which state goes first in the primaries - why not have a rotating schedule announced at the end of every Democratic convention?

[H2O Man]

10. New York.

Heck of a good state.

[vireo]

12. This article makes the case for Missouri

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200404/murphy

I think Illinois is more representative, both demographically and politically, but Chicago politics and media might tend to overwhelm the process.

[Coyote_Bandit]

14. All states differ

significantly from national means in at least one category of basic demographics.

The national mean for 2006 (latest available to me) is:
population growth of 5.9%
ethnicity (white/black/asian or pacific isalander/hispanic) 73.3%/12.4%/4.3%/14.5%
population per square mile (density) 84
median male age 35.0
median female age 37.8

There are significant differences. Population distribution by age and gender and financial differences (e.g., cost of living, income, etc.) also vary considerably from national norms in every state.


Michigan? Population growth is about half the rate of the nation as a whole. Ethnicity is skewed. White population is nearly 6% higher, black population is nearly 2% higher, asian/pacific islander population 2% lower and hispanic population is over 10% less than in the nation as a whole. Population density is double that of the nation as a whole.

[madrchsod]

16. " Illinois most average state according to AP"

http://www.pantagraph.com/articles/2007/05/16/news/doc464bd7f87aae0787184948.txt
Pantagraph.com | News | Illinois most average state according to AP

[_testify_]

19. Iowa and New Hampshire.

Obviously.

[Hawkowl]

20. CA + TX + NY

Why not have the first three primaries in these three states? These largest states are perhaps the most diverse and comprise about 70 million people.

[LisaM]

22. I think Texas has lost its privileges

As far as picking candidates - particularly since Bush and Cheney both lived there in 2000 (they skirted the rules to run together).

[racaulk]

23. I would say Missouri

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missouri_bellwether