MSNBC Breaking News: Obama Ahead in Iowa 30%

[spanone]

Hillary @ 26%

just announced on Hardball....no link yet

edit: link on post #3

[DemKR]

1. hopefully this one is just an outlier.....pre-debate or post-debate??

[Atman]

2. Hopefully it's NOT an outlier

ABH.

.

[MADem]

3. Here's the WAPO story on it.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/19/AR2007111900940.html?hpid=topnews

The top three Democratic contenders remain locked in a close battle in Iowa, with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) seeing her advantages diminish on key fronts, including the questions of experience and which candidate is best prepared to handle the war in Iraq, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Illinois Senator Barack Obama gets the support of 30 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa, compared to 26 percent for Clinton, 22 percent for former senator John Edwards and 11 percent for New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. The results are only marginally changed from a Post-ABC poll in late July, but in a state likely to set the course for the rest of the nominating process, there are significant signs of progress for Obama -- and harbingers of concern for Clinton.

The factors that have made Clinton the clear national front-runner -- including her overwhelming leads on the issues of Iraq and health care, a widespread sense that she is the Democrats' most electable candidate, and her strong support among women -- do not appear to be translating on the ground in Iowa, where campaigning is already fierce and television ads have been running for months.

Obama is running even with Clinton among women in Iowa, drawing 32 percent to her 31 percent, despite the fact that the Clinton campaign has built its effort around attracting female voters.

At the heart of the Democratic race has been the dichotomy between strength and experience (qualities emphasized by Clinton, Richardson and Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd) and the ability to introduce a new approach to governing (as Obama and Edwards have promised to do).

[spanone]

4. thanks couldn't find an msnbc link

[MADem]

6. They're always slow, but they partner with WAPO on those polls nt

[Lone_Star_Dem]

8. I've been saying it isn't decided yet.

Iowa could go to any one of the top three at this point in time.

[brentspeak]

5. The caucus won't be held until January 3, 2008

All this horse race polling is pointless.

[MADem]

7. Well, it does change the dynamic in that now Obama is the "frontrunner"

in Iowa, and Clinton is the "underdog."

Perceptions can hurt or help candidates. Clinton as an 'underdog' might be more successful than Clinton as a frontrunner. By the same token, Obama as a frontrunner might be perceived as 'Obama the Unbeatable.'

It's all down to who gets their ass to the caucus on the day. If the weather is freezing cold, with rain and ice, well, the dynamic could change completely.

[Lerkfish]

14. so, if HRC is the polled frontrunner, its significant, but if she is not, its not?

transparent.

[brentspeak]

16. Uh, Eggbert...

...can you point to a single post of mine where I ever said or suggested in any way that the polls were significant while Hillary was the polled front runner? Can you point to any post of mine where I ever suggested that the polls were significant for any reason?

:freak:

[Lerkfish]

18. I don't know any "eggbert"s, but you have a point: I was speaking generally

about HRC supporters, not necessarily you specifically.
it may have been too broad a brush and I apologize.

[brentspeak]

20. S'okay

[Dems Will Win]

9. This is actually very significant as it explodes Hillary's inevitability

This poll does NOT include most young voters with cell phones, let's keep remembering that, it's a land-line poll only.

Add to that an extra crush of Indies and re-registering Republicans (who go for Obama by 20% in the Iowa general election poll!), and how Clinton has collapsed in honesty, trustworthiness and strong leader areas and it now looks like Obama will win Iowa.

Especially telling in this poll is NET 1st and second choices where Obama beats Clinton 55-45. This is important in the Iowa Caucus because if your candidate falls under 15%, you must choose another!

You can't say this poll is early either, we're only 6 weeks away from the Caucus and the big O is making his move at exactly the right time.

Change and Charisma are winning the day over Experience, also in the Republican race where Huckabee will soon overtake Romney and might even ignite after winning Iowa.

So here's the prediction: Obama and Huckabee both win Iowa in 6 weeks.

You read it here.

[HughMoran]

10. Cool

I hope this race ends up being this competitive right to the end.

[tammywammy]

11. w00t!!

[DefenseLawyer]

12. Still tough to judge who will actually show up

at a caucus. Sometimes with weather and other commitments it is wishful thinking that a lot of the "likely" attendees who are polled will actually show, especially first timers who are drawn to the Obama campaign or, in recent history, to the Dean campaign.

[tammywammy]

15. Indeed

It's still too close to call, and the caucus day is really the only day that matters. :)

[Flabbergasted]

13. Sounds good!!! kr

[Egalitariat]

17. Hillary doesn' t seem honest to me. She can't win. This is not an outlier****

nm

[Atman]

19. Isn't it odd that EVERY race since Bush has been a dead heat?

And so is Iowa, statistically speaking. We're split 50/50 or 33/33/33 -- it's a freakin' joke. It's all ratings bullshit. We're living a giant months-long pre-game show. Makes me sick to my stomach.

.