The oil curve...

[Javaman]

I have been reading many an article today regarding the Peaking of Oil. Many of them offer all sorts of solutions from the mild to the extreme.

All have to do with conservation, rationing, lowering speed limits, etc.

The other bend is that technology is going to save us all. I have heard all sorts of rationalization from "we are smart, we will just come up with something" to "nanotechnology is going to save us all!"

Oy.

Some good ideas, some odd ideas, and some straight out of Sci-Fi ideas, but sad to say, they would have been more helpful if they were acted upon 30 years ago. However, today, to enact even the mildest form of any of these ideas would still taken an enormous amount of fossil fuel to get them up and going.

Say for example, we build at solar panel manufacturing plant using the latest nanotechnology to squeeze as much energy as possible out of the Sun's rays.

What sort of power are you going to use to construct the building? (not even going to go into the hours spend at the design firm under fossil fuel powered lights). How does the construction equipment operate? How do the workers get to the location? How are the materials manufactured?

That last one is the biggie, because right now all solar panels are made, constructed and supplied energy to make via fossil fuels.

Now one can extrapolate this concept to any of the "alternative" energy devices. Look at windmills. I don't think there are artisans actively carving blades for them. Wave power. Pistons are filled hydraulic fluid. And nanotechnology of any sort requires machines powered by fossils, oiled by fossil fuels, designed via fossil fuels, etc.

--

As of 2004 we were importing 55% of our oil. Taken in real world terms, that's roughly 11 million barrels of oil a day. No doubt, it's more today.

Another segment of the population, just wants to cut off all foreign imports of oil. Think about that for a moment.

Over 50% of all things operating on oil or oil products in this nation would vanish. The right wing would now crow on and on that the tree huggers are keeping the US from drilling off Florida, in Alaska, etc. Fine, you want to drill there go right ahead, but I can tell you this, in the grand scheme of things, you aren't going to find much in real world terms. If we were the sole user of that oil it would all run out in a couple of years at the current rate if usage. And because we don't have any limits or restrictions on our use, it would vanish quickly as society grows, even if it grew at a slower than normal pace.

And even if we did drill in those areas, it would be years before they are on line and producing enough in volume to make any sort of mark.

So what do we do? Very good question. What, indeed, do we need to do...

First we need to develop means to smelt metals without the use of fossil fuels or wood. The same goes for various replacements for fossil fuel based lubricants. These two things will keep industry going or at least to a point where we can potentially change over to a non-fossil fuel economy. I offer no magic solution here because, I don't have one, but if we wanted to continue with some level, even if it's really low, of "normalcy", this beyond all others needs to be done.

Also keep in mind that we will all have to adjust to living with less. A lot less. The days of rampant consumerism is going to end. Just a fact. If there ever was going to be a major societal hang over, it will be from that.

--

So what is my point? We all talk about doing our part to end global warming, to use "recycle, reused" things. If we are serious, I mean really serious and I don't mean sipping our latte while perusing DU in an overly heated house in the middle of winter, while shredding our documents to recycle. I mean, brass tacks, no bullshit, let's fix this now, serious. We turn off the computers, we wear sweaters, we don't drive at all costs, we change our jobs so we work closer to home, we grow our own food, we save rain water, we eat local, we ride bikes, etc.

Then, we as a nation commit the lions share of our fossil fuel imports to research and development for a renovation of our infrastructure. High on the list, the transportation and manufacturing industry.

We take the hard pill. The one that we all know in the back of our minds only gets bigger each and every day we put it off. If we take it now, it's only the size of a Volkswagen, if we wait 5 years from now, it's the size of a semi. If we wait 10 years from now, it's an ocean liner. Get the picture.

This isn't fun and games, no happy festival of earth mothers telling us to grow our veggies. This is the real deal. Everyone is effected whether they like it or not. Because, no matter what we do, no matter how we dream, no matter how much we deny it, it's still going to happen.

And to make matters worse, China and India are now growing into energy sucking, pollution belching giants, which now, only speeds things up.

So in an essence we are in a race against ourselves.

I hope you have your running shoes on, because the race began 150 years ago and we are still at the starting line.

[Javaman]

1. Shameless self kick. nt

[Deja Q]

2. India and China are closer to the "largest" source of oil.

:shrug:

[Javaman]

3. And they are actively cutting deals with the oil rich nations while we threaten to bomb them. nt

[robertpaulsen]

4. I've been reading too. It is happening, I'm certain.

So, where do we go? Jan Lundberg's answer is from a doomer perspective, yet strangely hopeful:

We can attribute the lack of response to $100 oil to any number of factors: apathy, dumbing down, fear, insanity, addictions, and the beginning of system collapse. The soon to be waning power of The Man to boss us and keep our noses to the grindstone is an historic development. This old-guard factor may be the best key to understanding: people still have a natural spirit to tend toward peace, but have been pushed into competition by virulent capitalism and overcrowding. Every day there's more control of the population through intrusive laws and technologies for domination. ("One nation, under surveillance" - a bumper sticker on a homeless man's bike-cart in Port Townsend, Washington.) Although $100 oil is a big development, people are still distracted, stressed and have a lot on thieir plates (for now).

The power of the people to resist and create working models for community economics and self rule is immense, but almost always quite suppressed. Like with the Wizard of Oz, a manipulative force oppresses us, so we are easily distracted -- for it can be dangerous, and bad for one's economic health, to squawk about the hidden and flag-draped powers that be. But the world has been altered so as to offer nowhere to hide. Most of us just want our reasonable necessities met, to have our comforts and security -- but it can't really exist anymore! That's the contradiction we can't wrap our minds around.

Human consciousness is unlimited, particularly compared to the materialistic, artificial constructs prevailing today. The explosion in consciousness that occurred in the 1960s had to be stopped, and stopped it was. One reason the System constantly distracts and divides us is its fear of people's becoming really aware and taking action. The potential is so great that any mind-numbing means the corporate state has will be brought to bear to suffocate and jail it. The artistic/community enlightenment going on in California around forty years ago was not a pop-media story that ended when people "grew up and got jobs." True, people sold out. But contemporaneously, for example, the book Ecotopia (Earnest Callenbach) was brewing and later came out of the movement. Eventually, deep green neotribalism did too. And the music didn't die; corporate radio forbade it and made revolutionary-consciousness music underground again.

It is time to reject the oversold convenience of plastic consumer heaven, to lighten our impact and dump the false values we've been fed. Ecologically, it's time to do such things as take short, cold showers to cut greenhouse emissions. It's time to eat REALLY local by sprouting beans in your kitchen. Drink water out of the tap instead of buying container-drinks. Take down the global-warming economy by forming a movement not to buy new cars. Don't support the war machine with taxable income, and take a little time to express solidarity with the war victims over in Iraq and Afghanistan. Is the U.S. military the mercenary of the oil industry, or do our troops protect us? Is it not time to protect ourselves and create our future in the post-petroleum, climate-distorted world? The alleged real world of injustice, stupidity and profitable death is on the way out, if you want. "War is over if you want it." - John Lennon

http://culturechange.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=130&Itemid=1

Read the whole article if you haven't yet, scary but good.