EDWARDS WILL WIN IOWA

[kimmerspixelated]

You know that, don't you? I don't believe for a second that he is in third place. Hillary's numbers are overblown, and Obama-I'm not sure about, but because Hillary and Barack are either "too experienced"-not good when your ties are so obviously corporatist, and "too inexperienced", not good for all the crap to be waded out of...I believe the final choice is obvious. Don't get me wrong, Obama is an extremely smart and charismatic speaker. He may be the best shot for a VP position, as are so many of the others that we should be proud were/are our choices, but Edwards has it all, and has mass appeal, IS progressive, and will get the job done! EDWARDS IS THE CHOICE!

EDWARDS!!! EDWARDS!!! EDWARDS!!!!

[sniffa]

1. i was going to disagree with you

but your CAPS won me over.

[MoonRiver]

63. lol

:D

[Catch22Dem]

2. Statistically he's in a tie for first

If you wanna look at it that way. :D

I'd like to see him take Iowa. I'd like to see him gain momentum.

[caligirl]

3. I HOPE SO!

[Disturbed]

4. Senators Clinton & Obama would not win the General.

If the Dems were halfway wise they would nominate J. Edwards because he has the
best chance of garnering the Pres. job.

[themaguffin]

64. Sorry, if he or Hillary gets the nom, we're done. Possibly Obama as well

Our best chance is Biden or Dodd.

[TarHeelMom]

73. Interesting that you would say this.

I was at a local Democratic meeting last month, where Rob Christensen (the main political writer for the Raleigh News and Observer) was the guest speaker. When discussing the various candidates, he said that if the Democrats nominated either Biden or Dodd, they would sail right into the White House.

[NCarolinawoman]

77. I agree with him on Biden, but not so much Dodd.

I really like Dodd, but in the red states he would be portrayed as the bogyman-NE-liberal. Biden has a fairly liberal record, but for some reason comes across as a moderate.

I think a lot of Southerners and Westerners would also go for Biden's aura of toughness.

Did he say anything about Edwards?

By the way, it's nice to welcome another NC Tarheel to DU. :toast:

[kimmerspixelated]

5. Really, I feel a tide turning!

[Plucketeer]

66. So do I !!!

It's not something you can point to specifically, but it's THERE. And for the obvious reasons you so aptly outlined in thed first post - Edwards IS the logical choice for the Oval Office.
:kick:

I'm in California and yesterday we recieved this fancy flyer from Hillary's California operation. I was floored by this thing! You know how when you go into a car dealership to look at some new model, and they have those glossy, heavy-stock brochures that list all the options and laudits of a certain model??? That's EXACTLY what came to mind as I leafed thru the pages of this promotional.
On the last page, there's a perforated tear-out reply card where you print your name, address and contact info and tell what degree of work support you're willing to volunteer for Dame Hillary!:puke:

I tore it out and wrote that all my efforts were going to Edwards as I wanted nothing to do with a corporate lackey in my White House. I've already SEEN what that's like. :dunce:

Heh - that Hillary brochure should have stated what sorta "warranty" she offers. "Campaign promises to middle class guaranteed until January 20th 2009!" :thumbsdown:

[cali]

6. he's got to win it.

If he doesn't, he's out.

[Parche]

12. iowa

No he is not out if he comes in 2nd in Iowa
there is still New Hampshire and others the first 2months of 2008.

So There
:hi:

[kenfrequed]

65. He doesn't need to win

He merely has to place well and beat expectations.

In fact the so-called second tier merely have to beat expectations as well. If Dodd, Richardson, Kucinich, or Biden place above the 5% mark it could be hailed as a victory by any of those campaigns. Anything above 10% would be an upset.

Well actually Kucinich would HAVE to get above 10% for the media to give him any real credit. Most outlets seem inclined to ignore or marginalize him, I suppose they believe he is mostly likely to bring the issues of media consolidation and media monopolies to the table.

[EV_Ares]

7. Certainly sounds plausible that either Edwards or Obama is going

to win the state. One thing Edwards has going for him is he is so acquainted with Iowa and the voters know him well. Obama has been doing great as well and now he has Hillary helping both him and Edwards with her shrill attacks. Time magazine says what she is doing is turning off Iowa voters.

[Dupree]

17. Edwards

I like Edwards. I appreciate his populist message. The hedge funds, haircuts, and mansion don't bother me. The party has a long tradition of wealthy people standing up for the common man from Jefferson to Franklin Roosevelt, John Kennedy...
All that said, I don't see it. I saw Edwards in Chapel Hill the week he declared. He had a good crowd and they were enthusiastic, but that was it. I mean you'd expect a guy running for president talking to a good crowd in his home town would achieve something approaching frenzy. This crowd was closer to polite.
I like Edwards. I'm supporting Obama. I hope Edwards serves in some capacity but I think Obama brings more independent and crossover votes than the other candidates.
JMHO

[EV_Ares]

21. You & I are on the same page. My feelings won't get hurt no matter

which one of them wins, if they do & it looks like it will be one of them.

The haircut issue, house and the hedge funds are the least of his worries. Something to talk about but certainly doesn't determine character if you are willing to look into his history. Maybe a little vanity involved but they are all explainable.

I am shocked at Obama though for his kindergarten essay, now there is a huge issue he will have to overcome. LOL.

[Yuugal]

41. Welcome to DU! nt

[Just-plain-Kathy]

61. It sounds like Iowa voters are delicate little flowers...

If Edwards becomes our nominee, he’ll be torn apart by the GOP. When it comes out that Edwards not only voted “yes” to the IWR, he co-sponsored Lieberman’s Bush-kissing war resolution...he’ll be yesterday’s news.

One ad campaign stating that Edwards was a senior adviser to a global investment firm, people will start thinking that maybe Edwards is just like Bush, Clinton, Rice and Cheney. Maybe he’ll turn his back on the American people and govern in a way that would benefit his past employer (or in Clinton’s case, Hillary’s past employer...NAFTA sure helped Wal-Mart).

Give me Kucinich, Dodd or Biden (who by the way is coming across better and better everyday).

[Mythsaje]

8. Obama 2016!!!

Edwards NOW.

[Snotcicles]

27. I was thinking the same thing.

We need two really strong personalities in the white house next, to undo the damage done by the current administration.
Maybe Edwards would consider Obama for VP and they could work together as a team to put our country back on track.
This will allow Obama an apprenticeship to be groomed for the 2016 presidency.

[Eurobabe]

9. We'll see

but better JRE than HRC. JMHO.

LOL, that sounds like a good campaign jingle!

[saracat]

10. Take it to the bank.Edwards will win Iowa. The more the voters get to know Hillary the more they

like Edwards.Iowa will vote for the real America when all is said and done. I believe.

[caligirl]

31. "vote for the real America" vote Edwards! You coined a new one.

[CoffeeCat]

35. Thanks Sara...

I'm pretty proud of my state and our people. After all, it was Iowans
who came forward to disclose that Hillary was planting questions at
her orchestrated campaign events.

People here take the process very seriously, and when a candidate plants
questions and then lies about it, it doesn't fly here.

Hillary's impersonal political "machine" is not translating well here.
That's why her polls are plummeting here.

Now, she's resorting to attacking Obama. Yesterday, in Cedar Rapids she
questioned his "character." Maybe this stuff works on a national level
or in the beltway, but when you have to get up close and personal with
people in this small state--that stuff is a horrendous turn off.

The last time I participated in the caucuses, Edwards did extremely well.
He has vast support here.

[book_worm]

11. Well the voters will tell us in less than a month.

[Think82]

13. Look out for BIDEN in Iowa

[book_worm]

14. If he's in the top three that would be a huge surprise and should help him.

[sallyseven]

74. It is only 4:25 here in the east.

If people stop and listen Biden will be in the top 3. I am not drinking.

[matcom]

15. I don't know whether or not you are right but I DO know

you shouldn't start drinking before 5:00 on a weekday

[SavageDem]

53. That's why I always go by Greenwich Mean Time (GMT)

'Cuz when I need to start drinking and it's only 13:00 CST, it's 19:00 GMT! It's always after 17:00.

[surfermaw]

16. Right on..Edwards wins Iowa

Have said from the begining that the polls are all wrong, Edwards haasn't been behind in Iowa.

[B Calm]

18. I think the people in Iowa will vote for Edwards too.. He'll come out

of Iowa with a slim win, but big enough to carry on and steamroll into the White House!

[Superman Returns]

19. you better hope not

Edwards can't beat Clinton in the big states, Obama can.

[Quixote1818]

23. If someone sweeps Iowa and NH they will be near impossible to beat. nt

[huskerlaw]

20. Damn straight!!

I know people who are on the ground in Iowa and they completely agree with your assessment regarding the poll numbers.

GO JOHN, GO!!!

:woohoo:

[Quixote1818]

22. The way Iowa works Edwards should win

because people can vote twice if their candidate doesn't do well. Because Edwards is most peoples #2 candidate that puts him in the best position to win.

I think Edwards will win Iowa too. Hillary made a gamble to play to the center and it may backfire on her.

[harmonicon]

54. We'll see what kind of deals are made

Yeah, people can move their votes around. That's why Edwards did so well last time. He and Kucinich had an agreement to tell their supporters to switch to the other if they weren't getting enough votes at a caucus site. I doubt that same agreement has been made this time, which is sort of too bad, at least for Kucinich. I also like how it is a sort of run-off vote, but on such a small scale, I'm afraid it makes the entire Iowa vote meaningless. I don't know why states don't have IRV for their primaries.... Oh, psst. Edwards enabled a crazy number of Bush's crimes.

[sicksicksick_N_tired]

I'd be very satisfied with that outcome.

Yes, I would!

[burythehatchet]

24. I feel the trend is towards John, as well.

[Pachamama]

25. Gov. Culver of Iowa supports Edwards....I know Edwards is going to win Iowa

I went to Highschool with Chet Culver in Bethesda, MD....Know directly from sources that Chet is supporting/backing Edwards and working to get him to win Iowa....From what I'm hearing, Edwards is doing really, really well in Iowa and the polls don't reflect what is really coming back from people in the know....

Go John Edwards! :applause:

[brentspeak]

26. As much as I want that to happen, we'll have to wait-and-see

[Nutmegger]

28. Everyone will be shocked.

The talking heads will explode. The M$M, after months of predicting the inevitable, will wonder what happened.

Edwards will take Iowa, and he'll be in a very good position for the New Hampshire primary. Donations will flow en masse to the Edwards coffers; and he will utilize those funds to spread his vision of one American, for all of us.

Tomorrow Begins Today

[waiting for hope]

32. Hee - my hubby and I say that often...

"what is the media going to do when Edwards wins it all?"

I, for one, will have the VCR ready to do some taping, the fall out in the media is a sight I want to preserve for all time.

;)

[nxylas]

67. The same thing they did when the Joementum ran out in CT

Froth about the need to dissolve the electorate and appoint a new one.

[wellstone dem]

29. Who of the top candidates is people's second choice

that is who may win under the caucus system.

In Iowa everyone subcaucuses for their first choice. Say a precinct has 50 attendees and will have 5 delegates to the convention. If Edwards, Obama, and Clinton each have 10 delegates in their subcaucus and DK, BR, JB, CD, each have 5 in their subcauses, Edwards, Obama and Clinton will each have 1 delegate. The other subcauses will not be viable and their delegates need to join one of the big 3, or they can combine to join their own. So if all 20 of the remaining delegates subcaucus for Joe Biden, he will actually leave with two delegates. Or if they all go to Edwards, he will get a total of 3. It's a bit like instant run off voting. 2nd choice may be an important piece of the Iowa puzzle.

[youthere]

30. Yes, yes he will.

[Blackhatjack]

33. Edwards Campaign is executing a very shrewd strategy in Iowa...

They are not out contesting the pollings that give HRC and BO the lead, even though they know Edwards is set to win Iowa.

Why?

THere will only be 5 days til the New Hampshire Primary after Iowa.

When Edwards surges to victory, he will dominate many a news cycle and the more dramatic the victory in Iowa appears to be the more difficult it will be for HRC and BO to break into that story line and rehabilitate their campaigns in 4 days.

Very smart.

And even more telling... if Hillary finishes 3rd in Iowa, she will have a real problem in N.H. If she comes in 3rd in Iowa and 2nd or 3rd in N.H., she will have a real problem on her hands. Days before Nevada, and less than 1 month to Super Tuesday --without a win under her belt.

[Freddie Stubbs]

49. He is also benefitting from Obama and Hillary attacking each other while he

sits back and enjoys the results.

[cynthia]

34. I only hope that whatever happens in Iowa, that all the top candidates stay in until Valentine's

Day to give more voters the chance to weigh in on Super Tuesday and some of the other states. All this emphasis on Iowa and New Hampshire is out of proportion.

[Diane R]

36. I absolutely agree. It's so unfair that these two states consistently get to choose our nominees.

I live in Washington State. We NEVER see a candidate (unless they're raising money), until after the nominee has already been decided. Yet voters in New Hampshire and Iowa get to see them all, weekly, for an entire year.

This is really, really skewed and not at all fair.

[Skittles]

40. IT SUCKS

Kerry was a done deal before voting got anywhere NEAR me :(

[deacon]

37. Let's hope so. Edwards '08 n/t

[Whisp]

38. but he has bad judgement, in most important things...

like contributing to a million iraqi lives gone. He owns a percentage of that. I cannot cheer for someone who has contributed to this.

[Skittles]

39. really that is my only reservation about Edwards

problem is, it is a HUGE one

[harmonicon]

55. couldn't agree more

I sucked it up and voted for him as VP last time, but in a very unenthusiastic way..... this time, we have a chance to do it again! I like him more than Obama in so many ways, but Obama's not a crook... or is he, because he's kept funding this genocide (if you think it's something else, tell me the world would sit back while 1mil white christians were killed). Fuck it, my (Michigan) primary vote doesn't mean shit, so what do I care? I'll just vote for the D in the national election, go home, and barf.

[Skittles]

85. I live in Texas

as a Democrat my vote NEVER seems to count :o

[MethuenProgressive]

42. MIght win Iowa. Might even win the nomination. No chance at all to win the Presidency.

Mike Dukakis in a blue blazer.
Except Dukakis had a life-long liberal record, and Edwards won't even win Massachusetts.

[helderheid]

43. WOOT!

[spanone]

44. no, i don't know that, and neither do you, otherwise i would drive you to Vegas

we would win large

[Tarc]

45. Where's the tagline?

"I am John Edwards and I approve this message."

[Counciltucky]

46. Take it from an Iowan: Yes he will.

His support is a lot more solid and wide-ranging in demographics than the others. He's worked hard in Iowa, he's genuine and passionate (Iowans can smell bullshit, and we ain't catching a whiff), and he is willing to have conversations with people on an individual basis. I should know, because I've had a couple conversations with him. He's a good man, and I'm going to proudly caucus for John Edwards.

[Blackhatjack]

51. Thanks for the insight from an Iowan with an 'on the ground perspective'...

I've said for some time that the Edwards Campaign 'understands' the Iowa Caucus system better than the rest of the field, and their strategy has been to respond to the specifics of how the caucus system will operate moreso than worry about the polling that has been announced.

Iowans know Edwards and his efforts there. Therefore they are likely more attuned to the expected Caucuses' outcome than any telephone poll conducted by out of state polling groups.

[K8-EEE]

47. He's my guy!

I hope you're right!

[liberal N proud]

48. I don't believe Hillary ever actually had the lead in Iowa

The only place she lead in Iowa was in the media.

[Occam Bandage]

50. So how exactly is Edwards more experienced than Obama?

Was it that single Senate term that he's been running away from? His unsuccessful run for Vice President? His absolutely no other qualifications whatsoever?

[harmonicon]

56. oh dear... it's a horrible thing to say...

but I don't think it's a wild stretch to suggest that when the media says things like that they mean that Edwards has more experience being white, and Obama's running for a white man's job. I shouldn't laugh, because it's awful, but still funny that so much new speak gets thrown around be people from every walk of life with all different political views. Who cares about "experience"? I care about judgement.

[progressoid]

52. One of his big advantages is that he HASN'T been in Washington for the last four years.

I think people ignore the stigma that Senators have from being inside the system. Edwards is somewhat divorced from the current system. It works to his advantage I think.

[cgrindley]

57. So what? He's still unelectable...

why do people want us to lose another election?

[acmavm]

58. That's exactly what I believe.

[LaPera]

59. Edwards will win the Democratic nomination!

Hillary, with far, far too many negatives....easy to understand why the republican want her and constantly trash Edwards even though Edwards is supposedly so far behind Hillary in the polls, she has so much money, and the media pushing her in the polls everyday and the republicans and moderates, it'll be tough! But, wait until the votes are actually casted, Edwards will be running neck and neck with the moderate, DLC HRC.....

Expect John Edwards to pull out the nomination....I expect Edwards to win Iowa, Obama will come in second or third in the early primaries and begin to fade (will he be picked up as a VP who knows, he'll have the bucks & a strong voting block) Hillary and Edwards will fight for states and Hillary will win spme states early,....but she will begin to fade as well - Hillary fatigue, maybe?... not as many who were polled all these past months seem to be voting for her, not surprising.... she's far too moderate and the same old thing we've seen for the past 30 years except that she's a woman....

The republicans and their media will be pushing hard for her in the primaries.... and that can be the a big difference in her favor....However, Edwards is tough, a fighter, he has an excellent progressive platform and if he has the money to be able to compete with Hillary...he'll blow right on by her and win the nomination....Which the republicans do not want to see.

There will be the usual republican dirty tricks - sabotage, lies, distortions, smears, swift boating, republican manipulations of the voting, smokescreens keeping us focused elsewhere by the republicans anything to keep it close keeping their fascism moving right along for at least another four years... Edwards is a tough and a fighter He'll do very well!

Donate! http://johnedwards.com/

[go west young man]

72. Your on the money.

The RNC know Edwards can win the South and the soccer moms. They have been pushing for Hillary in the MSM because they want to run against her. They definitely don't want John Edwards. Hence their desire to slander him through their frontline mouthpieces like Coulture, Hanitty and Limbaugh. They are afraid. He can actually win and not by a small margin but by a sweeping victory.

[creeksneakers2]

82. I follow the right wing media

They almost never attack Edwards and go after Hillary constantly. I've even heard Edwards commercials playing on Rush Limbaugh.

[Quantess]

60. Edwards deserves to win the election!

He is SO electable.

[mike_c]

62. ABC....

For sure.

[EVDebs]

68. Iowans know that to get corrupt corporte power restrained Edward's ticket is the only way

It's like the old Grange movement days. Edwards is the new William Jennings Bryan ! We won't be sacrificed on a cross of Enrons.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

69. Edwards support skews younger

And those are the people who use cellphones rather than land lines, and they are chronically under-represented in opinion polls. The other part of the Iowa equation is voter turn-out, and Edwards has been living there for two years. I don't know that Edwards will win, but I think the race will be closer than people expect.

That's my prediction, and if I'm wrong, I'll be happy to deny I ever said it.

[NoodleBoy]

70. it's nice to be excited about a candidate, but be realistic, ok?

nearly all major polls show him in third place. some of them show him within the margin of error for second place, or even fourth place.

None have showed him leading.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Iowa

[lovuian]

71. I think he has a real chance here

and I like the guy

[Buns_of_Fire]

75. Iowa -- #1: Obama; #2: Edwards; #3: Clinton

GE: Edwards vs. Huckleberry. Edwards takes it with 52.5%. You heard it here first. (And this, from one of the KoochKids! :shrug: )

[MzNov]

76. Yes. 1. Edwards, 2. Obama, 3. Clinton

:bounce:

Edwards '08 !!!!

[hyphenate]

78. I haven't said too much

about my own choice for the Dem nominee in the past--too much bitching and moaning about the whole spate of potential candidates, but I believe in Edwards a lot and wish him the best--like those of us who fought for the 2004 election, I will support any of the candidates for the general election, but I have been hoping that Edwards would get a good start. We need someone like him to bring us all together somehow. I keep my fingers crossed that he can sustain victory in the primaries.

[happygoluckytoyou]

79. AN EDWARDS/OBAMA TICKET....16 YEARS OF WHITEHOUSE

[happygoluckytoyou]

80. ALL WE NEED IS A GORE ENDORSEMENT OF EDWARDS AND IT IS ALL OVER

[info being]

81. Exactly

[Blue-Jay]

83. SOMETHING IS WRONG WITH MY KEYBOARD

[creeksneakers2]

84. Edwards has a chance

Its still a close race. Edwards has one big thing going for him.

Hillary and Obama are fighting with each other and that could wind up with both of them knocking each other down. That would leave Edwards as the next choice.

So far though, the fighting between Hillary and Obama benefits Obama, not Edwards. Obama has the momentum. Constant attacks on Hillary left Edwards with a reputation as an angry negative candidate. Edwards gets close but can't shake third place.

The Edwards camp just told the press that they were going to stop the negative attacks. That might not be true. Edwards attacked Hillary as hard as ever during the NPR debate yesterday. The Edwards camp might think if they call themselves positive people will believe they are positive. I doubt they'll fool anybody.

The key is that Edwards knows he has to change strategy and that the negative attacks haven't helped him and perhaps made things worse. Out of the three front runners, Obama is seen as the most positive candidate and his numbers are up. Hillary recently announced that she was going on the attack against Obama. Since then her numbers in the Rasmussen have dropped like a rock. She's down 9 points in 11 days.

Edwards' new strategy, if he's for real, may well get him past Hillary but I don't see what he can do about Obama. Edwards can't go from negative on Hillary to negative on Obama. The more Hillary attacks Obama the worse off she is. Obama has the momentum. I don't see how Edwards can do better than second place.

The betting line has the race handicapped at: Obama 53 ; Hillary 35 ; and Edwards 11. If you turn out to be right about Edwards winning you'll have outsmarted some very savvy bettors.

[Radical Activist]

86. Hillary will finish third.

I think Obama is still likely to be first.

[Blackhatjack]

87. Edwards moves up, Clinton moves down, and Obama is right there...

IF you look at the 2004 race to get an idea of how the Iowa caucuses work, you would have to recognize some parallels. Hillary like Dean comes in the leader and support wanes enough for the Caucuses to avert her victory. Dean was never the same after Iowa, and Hillary will not be the same either.

Once the 'Big Mo' begins to turn against you after you have been at the top of the national polls so long, it is incredibly hard to turn that around in a short period of time.