The Surge Is Bullshit.

[Warren Stupidity]

Operation Imposing Law - OIL - aka 'the surge' is one nefarious steaming pile of crap.

Anyone care to hazard a guess on when 'the surge' will be complete? What is the time frame? Does the surge require six months? Should we check back in on Iraq in August to see how things are going?

The Bush administration is stalling for time, and there is no particular time limit, other than 1-9-09, around noon.

Congress has not demanded any metrics whatsoever by which our Iraq policy is to be judged. Instead they write blank checks and fail to pass meaningless resolutions.

Here is how things will play out. The surge, or OIL will fail to achieve victory. I can say that with confidence, as Congress has not demanded, nor has the administration bothered to define, exactly what victory is. But suppose that victory consists of a compliant US friendly regime in Baghdad that is actually in control of the nation of Iraq and able to provide our mercantile interests with access to their oil on a regular and predictable basis, and able to keep the peace without our troops holding their troops' hands. Does anyone think that is likely to happen at all? I certainly don't.

Instead Iraq will continue to be a chaotic mess, a failed state. At some in the relative near future, the battle hardened insurgency will have learned how to survive under the conditions of 'the surge' and will start to effectively retaliate against the increased targets of opportunity, our troops, that the surge will have provided them. Our casualty rate will increase. The sectarian war will continue and will continue to intensify.

There will be another cathartic moment played out in the media where once again it becomes painfully obvious that current policy has failed. As we have no time frame, no benchmarks, no metrics by which to formally measure the current policy, when failure will once again be obvious is unpredictable. But it will happen.

What then? The surge, Operation Imposing Law, OIL, will fail. That failure will be obvious. Bush will still be in office. Congress will still be deadlocked, unable to pass relevant laws in the Senate and unwilling to defeat funding in the house. What then?

[Olney Blue]

1. I agree with you.

[FormerDittoHead]

2. Sam Seder (and I) agree with you as well...

You have practically transcribed Air America's Sam Seder's take on the surge as well.

The surge was a tactic to take "withdrawal" off of the table and set the debate so that, as you correctly observe, things will be delayed enough so that when the bill for this historical clusterfuck comes due, it won't be on Bush's watch.

[Amonester]

3. Most (if not all) here at DU always knew that ...

"a compliant US friendly regime in Baghdad that is actually in control of the nation of Iraq" is a Busche/a-all fantasy to begin with. (Sorry to quote your words but I find it expresses their fantasy very well). Besides, I always thought the junta's not really interested in a "peaceful, and law (which one?) obedient" IraQNam.

Chaos profits them more, as long as it lasts.

Heck, I even saw some "special ops" blow-up stuff while wearing wigs and in disguise, although they were Brits, but who knows what private crooks might forment at any moment there "to stir up some sh*t" so, no, there's no other "what then" than, either the war criminals in the Peoples' House are removed by any (peaceful, agent mike: quiet now) means, or wait until January 2009 (too late).