New Study Increases Concerns About Climate Model Reliability

[FVZA_Colonel]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/12/071211101623.htm

ScienceDaily (Dec. 12, 2007) — A new study comparing the composite output of 22 leading global climate models with actual climate data finds that the models do an unsatisfactory job of mimicking climate change in key portions of the atmosphere.

This research, published online in the Royal Meteorological Society's International Journal of Climatology, raises new concerns about the reliability of models used to forecast global warming.

"The usual discussion is whether the climate model forecasts of Earth's climate 100 years or so into the future are realistic," said the lead author, Dr. David H. Douglass from the University of Rochester. "Here we have something more fundamental: Can the models accurately explain the climate from the recent past? "It seems that the answer is no."

Scientists from Rochester, the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and the University of Virginia compared the climate change "forecasts" from the 22 most widely-cited global circulation models with tropical temperature data collected by surface, satellite and balloon sensors. The models predicted that the lower atmosphere should warm significantly more than it actually did.
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I know this was published a couple of weeks ago (and that this deals with the same subject as in a thread I started in LBN,) but I was wondering what everyone here thought of this. Personally, I think an interesting response was put together here: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/12/tropical-troposphere-trends/#more-509

[angstlessk]

1. Here is a link to info on some of the 'scientists' on the 'study'

http://www.ecosyn.us/adti/Singer-Nightline.html

I am sure they are all working for some oil/gas producing company. if you need to invest in a sure thing, bet on it!

[ThoughtCriminal]

2. Tobacco Institute lobbyists

It's not surprising to find that some of these skeptics, including co-author Fred Singer, found previous employment trying to cast doubt on the hazards of 2nd hand tobacco smoke.