Rational Actor Theory and Assymetric Threats: Why "Rational Terrorists" Don't Leave Suicide Notes

[CorpGovActivist]

One of the best college courses I ever took was from http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&q=celeste+wallander&spell=1">Professor Celeste A. Wallander, in 92 or 93.

An expert on assymetric threats and rational actor theory, Dr. Wallander helped open my eyes to some of the more chilling aspects of state-sponsored terrorism, non-governmental groups, and the like. Many times in recent years, I have found myself re-reading course materials and checking her latest writings.

The "whodunnit?" game we see in the threads about Bhutto's tragic assassination here at DU explain, quite neatly, why "rational terrorists" don't leave behind suicide notes or videotaped diatribes.

If the purpose is to sow maximum distrust, then form follows function. Without a known perpetrator, distrust - hand in glove with fear - grows.

- Dave

P.S. This is further borne out by the fact that the assassin blew himself up; if the "function" was to have a public trial in which to explain his action, then the "form" would have matched. Instead, the "function" was to keep everyone guessing; hence, the "form" of his second act.

[TomInTib]

1. Point well made. Why tell 'em why?

Let 'em all sit around and wonder, in wild-eyed terror, just who was that guy and why did he really do it?

Don't give 'em a face or a reason.

[CorpGovActivist]

2. "Faceless Terror"...

... was one of the memes of her teaching. She accurately predicted some very chilling trends we're now seeing.

- Dave

[bemildred]

3. FUD == Fear, Uncertainty Doubt.

Originally a reference to Micro$oft's marketing strategy for its Windoze computer operating system.

Any party who finds the truth or the facts unpalatable may be expected to resort to it. The cigarette companies did it, the energy companies are doing it, the asbestos companies did it, it is a staple of US politics. It is true that terrorists of one sort or another might find it useful too. My point is that you can't infer much about who the perps were on such a basis.

[CorpGovActivist]

4. "you can't infer much about who the perps were"

That's the point, and I think it's by the perps' own design.

- Dave

[bemildred]

5. Correct.

Called "leaving a false trail" in other contexts. The discussion in the OP talks about "rational terrorists", and I just wanted to make clear that this sort of thing has always been very popular with sitting governments and military actors, perhaps even more so than with rebels, insurgents, and the like.

[CorpGovActivist]

6. We're Reaping the Natural Crop of Our Proxy Wars...

... during the Cold War. We instructed our proxies too well.

- Dave

[bemildred]

7. Yep, the Rubes are wised up. nt

[CorpGovActivist]

8. Bin Laden Is No Rube...

... and took all the teaching we could give him during the Afghan War against the Soviets, to boot.

- Dave

[bemildred]

9. Is a wised up Rube still a Rube?

"Never wise up a chump." -- W. C. Fields.

The problem is sometimes chumps wise up all by themselves. That's when you need to know which window to run through.

[CorpGovActivist]

10. Even the Smell of the Turnip Truck...

... wears off after a while.

- Dave

[Boojatta]

11. There are a variety of possible explanations. For example...

1. Concern about possibly being stopped, questioned, and searched before reaching the target.

2. Concern about what language or languages to use. Concern about errors in translating.

3. Concern that if they start thinking carefully enough to produce written records that don't require revision, then they might start having doubts about the whole idea of suicide bombing.

4. Concern about being laughed at for spelling or grammar errors.

5. Concern that the note will be destroyed by the blast.

[CorpGovActivist]

12. Reasons #2 and #4 Apply to Lurking Freepers, Too! n/t