TIME.COM: Edwards Campaign Reaction to Des Moines Register Poll

[AmBlue]

Edwards Campaign Reaction to Des Moines Register PollIs the poll accurate? There are good reasons to think it is NOT.

-The poll was conducted during the holiday AND over the weekend. There is plenty of evidence that either of these would make it more difficult to obtain a representative sample. The combination makes the problem of obtaining a valid sample GEOMETICALLY worse.

-The poll is at odds with history. The poll says that 60% of Democratic caucus participants will be first timers. Usually, the number of first-time caucus goers is no more than 20%.

-The poll also says that 45% of those at Democratic caucuses will be Independents or Republicans.

-The poll is at odds with other polls. Other polls show a close race with other candidates leading.

-Yepsen himself highlights the fluidity of the results rather than the horserace.

What does the poll really say?

-The poll says the race is close. With a margin of error of +/-5, any of the top 3 Democrats could be in any of the top 3 positions.

-The poll says the race is yet to be decided. 34% say they could change their minds, and 6% do not express a preference. This means 40% are yet to decide.

-As Yepsen points out, 21% of those in the 2004 entrance poll
Alright, back to work - but first, the three other post-holiday polls:

KCCI/LEE NEWSPAPERS POLL
Edwards 29
Clinton 28
Obama 29

LA TIMES/BLOOMBERG NEWS POLL
*Voters considered likely to caucus
Edwards 25
Clinton 31
Obama 22

STRATEGIC VISIONS
Edwards 28
Clinton 29
Obama 30

http://thepage.time.com/edwards-campaign-reaction-to-des-moines-register-poll/

[book_worm]

1. all any candidate need say is "the only poll that matters is the one taken Thursday night"

[IndyOp]

2. Good response. I hate the way polls are used to manipulate people into

jumping onto the bandwagon - vote the way you think everyone else is voting and you'll be sure to have voted for a winner! Gag. I also hate that polls get more attention than policies.

:thumbsdown: :thumbsdown: :thumbsdown:

[creeksneakers2]

3. Something for Edwards not counted yet

People will support one side or the other based on what they hear but it takes emotional appeal to get people to actually go to the caucus. Just from here, it looks like the Edwards supporters have the most emotion.