Reallocated Numbers Based on Second Preferences Gives Edwards A Solid Lead --- In Iowa

[RiverStone]

If we could only have a dime for every pundit or poll...but who here has not ventured to guess who will win? Of course, we only believe those polls that agree with our personal determination. This poll MUST be right! :hi:

December 31, 2007 — Using the same polling methodology that successfully predicted the outcome of the 2004 Democratic Caucus in Iowa, InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research has been conducting a daily tracking poll among likely voters in the Jan. 3 Iowa Democratic Caucus, and it shows a statistical tie between Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, with Barack Obama starting to lag.

Clinton has 30%, Edwards 29%, Obama 22%, with 14% committed to other candidates and 5% undecided.

The survey was conducted Dec. 28-29 among 788 likely Democratic voters in Iowa. The poll has been weighted for gender and age. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%.
Critically, Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.

Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be:
Edwards: 41%
Clinton: 34%
Obama: 25%

more:

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1231_103.aspx

[gaiilonfong]

1. This is really a bogus arguement

It will never happen like that NO WAY. People on the ground are reporting the opposite.
They say Clinton, is very somber yesterday and today, that is a more important indicator of what is going on that this poll.

[AmBlue]

7. Second choices in caucus are NOT bogus...

and in fact are vitally important. If you don't understand how caucusing works, you need to read up.

If these folks predicted the unexpected Kerry win in 2004 with this same method and are getting these results now, well it seems that's an awfully wide margin of victory to just blow off as bogus. Good luck with that.

[TahitiNut]

2. This might be close enough to what the candidates themselves are seeing that ...

... it goes a long way to explain why Kucinich made the strategic decision to ask his caucus supporters to take Obama as a second choice. In such a fashion, if one regards this picture as valid, Kucinich does what he can to impede a runaway ... and make New Hampshire more relevant.

[RiverStone]

3. That strategy will only go so far...

You may be right TahitiNut; ultimately so many factors come into play and this kind of strategy may prolong the inevitable.

But this card can only be played once. It seems that if by NH one is not decidedly leaning toward his (or herself), then it is time to ponder the viability of staying in it at all.

[TahitiNut]

5. It's about the message, not the messenger.

The longer the message is voiced, the better. I don't particularly give a shit how tall the messenger is. :shrug:

[PDittie]

4. Richardson likely will have more to influence

than Kooch:

In 2004, Dennis Kucinich told his supporters that in areas where he did not reach the 15% minimum, they should support John Edwards. This year, he's already sent out word for his troops to fall in behind Obama. Looking back at the polls for 2004, Kucinich had 4-5% support across the state. Both Kerry and Edwards received more votes than entrance polls indicated as caucus goers were forced to move from first choices that didn't make the grade. However, while Kerry went up around two and a half percent, Edwards gained almost six percent between the time people went in the door and when they came out. A good part of that came from the organized movement out of the Kucinich camp.

Depending on the poll, Bill Richardson currently has 6-12% support in Iowa. If he were to ask his followers to line up behind any of the three candidates at the top of the polls, it could easily vault that campaign ahead of competitors.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/2/105312/7805/371/428797

Where do you think he sends his caucus goers?

[TahitiNut]

6. I don't think there's the slightest doubt Richardson would throw his supporters behind Hillary.

After all, he's been her stalking horse when not otherwise engaged. :shrug:

[PDittie]

8. Yes

I think that's why Iowa remains too close to call. The outcome still could be influenced by the weather, or the percentage of declared Obama supporters who are out of state college students still trying to make their way back to campus, or some other last-minute deal similar to this by Biden's supporters or Dodd's supporters or even the denial of instructions from a non-viable candidate to his caucus-goers (free will being what it is).

The result at this point depends on caucus night execution of a successful strategy.