cali
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Thu Jan-10-08 11:42 AM
Original message |
Edwards is not competitive in South Carolina |
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Edited on Thu Jan-10-08 12:03 PM by cali
Why do I mention this? Because of the stream of comments today about how Kerry is stabbing him in the back by endorsing Obama in SC.
Edwards hasn't polled above 15% in months. Yeah, yeah, polls aren't worth shit, but the truth is simple: The AA community comprises 50% of dem primary voters. Obama gets the lion's share. Clinton gets the rest. That leaves 50% to be split 3 ways. It's a two person race in SC.
The likely explanation for Kerry's announcing his support for Obama in SC is that he hopes to help him with white voters and in particular, white men.
Kerry doesn't owe and fidelity to Edwards. I understand that Edwards supporters are stung over this endorsement, but logically, it's not even about Edwards as much as it's about Obama and Clinton.
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Infinite Hope
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Thu Jan-10-08 11:43 AM
Response to Original message |
1. I agree except "Edwards has never polled above 15% in SC" isn't true. n/t |
cali
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Thu Jan-10-08 12:04 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
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I didn't actually check it out, but I'll take your word for it. I edited it to reflect that Edwards hasn't polled above 15% in months.
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Wetzelbill
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Thu Jan-10-08 11:44 AM
Response to Original message |
2. I'd cry but, ever since that botched facelift I can't make tears nt |
La Lioness Priyanka
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Thu Jan-10-08 11:45 AM
Response to Original message |
3. also we want people to vote/endore according to their beliefs and not their previous ties |
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so imo kerry did the right thing
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Clarkansas
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Thu Jan-10-08 11:47 AM
Response to Original message |
4. Edwards abandoned South Carolina for Iowa |
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and got burned. After 04, I understand why he tried that strategy. It just didn't work though.
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midlife_mo_Jo
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Thu Jan-10-08 11:48 AM
Response to Original message |
5. Kerry could have shown a little class and chosen one of the other 49 states |
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in which to make his endorsement, but that says more about Kerry than either Obama or Edwards.
Personally, I think Kerry's endorsement is going to hurt Obama with some independents and repubs who are crossing over to vote for change. Maybe not so much in SC, but Obama needs to run on his own and distance himself from the past as much as possible to win as many of those votes as he can, imo.
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RiverStone
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Thu Jan-10-08 11:48 AM
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6. Kerry has a right to endorse who he wants... |
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I put what's in the best interest for the country ahead of personal ties. So did Kerry.
As far as Edwards and SC, I'm not putting too much weight on the polls and pundits - but, if JE does not win there or Nevada, he is gonna have a hell of a time getting any momentum by Super Tuesday.
A non-win anywhere may be the beginning of the end of his campaign - which would be unfortunate.
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fasttense
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Thu Jan-10-08 11:53 AM
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7. Too many people are reading way too much into Kerry's endorsement of the big O. |
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It is very simple. Kerry is endorsing Obama because Kerry and Obama are very, very similar in their outlooks on politics.
If you liked Kerry backing down from counting votes in the stolen election of 2004, essentially backing away from a fight, then you will understand why he is backing the big O. Neither men see stolen elections as worth fighting for. Kerry is not a fighter when it comes to determining what the people want and neither is Obama.
They are two peas in a pod in a lets all be bipartisan and not investigate the bushies kind of way.
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Inspired
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Thu Jan-10-08 11:57 AM
Response to Original message |
8. You shouldn't generalize so much, Cali. |
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I am a very loyal Edwards supporter. I don't think many Edwards supporters expected Kerry to endorse Edwards. Would it have been nice? Sure. It would have been shocking though. I NEVER thought Kerry would endorse Edwards.
I'm THRILLED he endorsed Obama over Clinton.
So....you can take that knife you are trying to dig in my back out now, OK?????
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cali
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Thu Jan-10-08 12:07 PM
Response to Reply #8 |
10. You shouldn't personalize that which isn't personal |
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I'm just trying to present factual information and an opinion based on that information.
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Inspired
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Thu Jan-10-08 12:16 PM
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11. I just hate it when people say Edwards supporters do this or think that. |
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You see very little of what Edwards supporters really say or think. The main people bitching about Kerry's endorsement aren't even Edwards supporters!
If you want factual....then you must know that John Edwards NEVER expected John Kerry to support him.
Factual? THIS IS NO FREAKIN' SURPRISE!!!!!
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Phillycat
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Thu Jan-10-08 12:21 PM
Response to Reply #10 |
12. You're trying to present "factual information", but |
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you put erroneous data in your OP (Edwards has never polled above 15% in SC) and then when called on it, you admit you "didn't check". But we are expected to believe this is just a presentation of cold hard facts with no agenda on your part. Huh.
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cali
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Thu Jan-10-08 12:49 PM
Response to Reply #12 |
13. He hasn't polled above 15% in months- since the campaigns |
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really kicked into gear- and he may or may not have polled higher than that a year or ago. The point is the same: He's not viable in SC. He hasn't been viable in SC since the campaigns really got going. It's simple stuff.
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robcon
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Thu Jan-10-08 12:56 PM
Response to Reply #13 |
15. Edwards peaked at 30% in May, 2007, he was last above 20% in August |
Virginia Dare
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Thu Jan-10-08 12:57 PM
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16. Not that I think Edwards has a chance at winning SC, but |
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can we agree that the polls aren't infallible by any means, especially after what happened in New Hampshire?
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Virginia Dare
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Thu Jan-10-08 12:55 PM
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14. It's naive to think this had nothing to do with Edwards.. |
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of course it does.
I also don't see how Kerry helps much with white men in South Carolina, but I'll take your word for it.
He doesn't owe fidelity to Edwards by any means, but they were running mates, and holding off on endorsing for a month or so would have been a classier move on his part IMO.
Kerry's probably just doing what he thinks is right, but I don't agree with it at all for whatever it's worth.
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bigtree
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Thu Jan-10-08 01:11 PM
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