What states will John Edwards win?

[Seen the light]

To all of his supporters that are still keeping the faith, which states do you expect him to best Obama or Clinton in?

[Sarah Ibarruri]

I'm not sure. I think anyone that hears him, supports him so a lot depends on whether the media...

... will allow him to be heard from, or will continue to censor him out of fear of what he's saying.

[pennylane100]

1. I am an Edwards supporter and I do not know the answer.

[Wisconsin for Hill]

2. sorry, but none

You have to admire his moxie, but it's time for Edwards to be a unifying presence, drop out, and endorse Hillary. He will definately be welcomed on board, his comments over the last week about Hillary notwithstanding.

[Madam Mossfern]

6. Hahahahahahahaha

Surely you jest.

[red2blue]

3. He doesn't really need to win any

YET

[Occam Bandage]

4. They tend to be helpful.

[OzarkDem]

5. Quite a few, especially the Red states

He's very strong in the South & Midwest

South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama, Ohio, Indiana, Oklahoma, Nevada,Oregon, Idaho, Indiana,Missouri, Arizona, Texas, possibly Minnesota, Colorado, Georgia. Not sure about Florida

[BadgerLaw2010]

9. This would be why he's getting hammered in SC and NC, yes?

[Blackhatjack]

13. You are depending on the same polls that predicted Obama winning N.H. by 9-10 pts?? LOL

[Mutineer]

10. He's running third in those states.

When do you expect the miracle to occur exactly?

[Blackhatjack]

12. Edwards, Obama and Hillary are ALL within the MOE in the NC Poll.

Obama 31, Hillary 29, Edwards 27 and Margin of Error is 3.1PLUS.

You need to do more than read the MSM headlines.

[Alexander]

16. Okay, let's say Edwards wins North Carolina.

What other primary states does he win? And how does he get the nomination?

[cali]

19. The NC primary is on May 8

If Edwards doesn't pick up any of the Feb 5th states, he won't even be in the race on May 8th.

[Blackhatjack]

22. You just fail to understand how the earned delegate race works...

Right now the earned delegate totals are : Obama 25, Hillary 24, and Edwards 18. As long as Edwards continues to pick up delegates (usually a 15% threshold in most states) Edwards is well in this race.

How would you have advised Bill Clinton at this stage when he lost the first 2, and went on to lose the next 3, before he won a primary? Would you have told him it is over? And of course, we know what happened after that ... BILL CLINTON WON THE NOMINATION.

Opinions here do not reflect the history of primary races of the past. Saying something does not in itself make it so.

[cali]

26. Oh no I don't. I live in the real world and realize that the comparison

to Clinton in '92 is absurd. I'm hardly the only one saying that Edwards' chances are exceedlingly slim to none. You won't find a single political analyst saying anything different. I'm not saying Edwards should exit the stage. He should do whatever he wants, but the accelerated primary schedule works against him, as does his third place status and lack of money.

[Blackhatjack]

28. The comparison to Clinton in '92 IS NOT ABSURD. You just show your lack of knowledge...

The fact that the MSM is pushing the meme that Edwards cannot win does not change anything, as does the sheep singing from the same songbook.

You make a false point about the money available to Edwards. Edwards has plenty of money to run through Super Tuesday and beyond. In fact, it was reported Edwards had more money than HIllary before the N.H. Primary. ARe you making the same claim about HIllary???

No one is stuck in a first, second or third place status at this point. Obama was first and second, Hillary was third and first, and Edwards was second and third. How does that establish any one candidate's status??

Read a little political history, and with a little more seasoning, you will begin to appreciate the vagaries of the race for the Democratic Party Nomination.

[cali]

30. LOL

I have two Masters degrees in... history. We'll just see who's right. I'm quite well versed in American elections, thank you very much. I'm bookmarking this thread to present it to you in a couple of weeks.

[Blackhatjack]

35. I will put my doctorate in law and BA in Political Science up against your HIstory degrees...

The problem with historians is that it takes decades for them to properly analyze what is happening today --but eventually they become the experts on past events. Hopefully you will live so long as to be an expert on this subject.

I think it is a good idea for you bookmark my reply because so far you have offered nothing to refute what I posted.

[JDPriestly]

34. What candidate is better than Edwards?

In my view, none. For me, Edwards is the only candidate who does not have a lot of serious negatives.

Edwards knows what it is to go to trial with a lot of odds against you and still pull off a win. So, just relax and get with the program. Edwards is in for the long haul.

Obama, for example, has never been vetted on the national stage before. The strongest candidate that Obama has run against was Alan Keyes. Yes, he has a lot of momentum. But there are also a lot of questions, legitimate questions, about his viability, about his stances, about his integrity. Let's see how these things work out in the end. You never know. It is a long, long time from January to November.

[cali]

11. There is no way he can win SC or any othre state you mentioned

but OK. It's just absurd to cling to fantasy.

[Blackhatjack]

14. And of course you will ADMIT you were wrong if Edwards wins?

THat is, if you are really serious about making such a statement.

[cali]

17. Absolutely, you can hold me to it. And you will praise my

analysis if I'm right, yes? And here's the analysis: Edwards can't win any southern state with a high proportion of AA voters. Obama and Clinton have a lock on them. MN? No organization and no constituency to speak of. Western States like Co? Again, no game on the ground. Latino voters? Trend heavily toward Clinton. JE is not positioned well for the Feb 5 states.

[OzarkDem]

25. Clinton will win a southern state over a southerner?

I don't think so.

One of the reasons Clinton and Obama came out so hard in IA and NH was because they knew the going would get tougher in southern and midwestern states where Edwards is strong.

Edwards is going to be a "late bloomer".

[OzarkDem]

15. Why the polls are wrong

They're not counting the large numbers of independent voters who are turning out. They're tough to predict and measure, so I put little credence in them right now.

Obama won big in Iowa, a state neighboring his. Same with Hillary in New Hampshire. I say the big margin of error in the current polls are going to swing Edwards way.

[cali]

18. NH does NOT neighbor NY and if certainly doesn't consider NY

as part of New England. At all. In SC, 50% of the voters are AA. AA voters are not going to vote for Edwards? I mean, come on. I say it's absurd to think that Edward can do more than come in third in any state but OK.

[OzarkDem]

21. 50% of Dem voters

Being in a neighboring southern state is also a bonus. Edwards has polled pretty well in SC in the past and won w/ 45% of the popular vote in 2004.

[BadgerLaw2010]

20. Why would independents turn out en masse to vote for Edwards over Obama?

I'm not aware of any actual theory or model that would give that result.

As far as Feb. 5th, Edwards doesn't have the organization, money, or momentum to make up for lacking said organization and money.

[OzarkDem]

23. For the same reason Edwards did so well in Iowa

Being in a neighboring southern state is also a bonus. Edwards has polled pretty well in SC in the past and won w/ 45% of the popular vote in 2004.

[cali]

27. No. Edwards did well in Iowa because that's where he put

all his resources, and he'd been campaigning there for 4 years. It's hardly a big secret that he planned to use Iowa as a launching pad by winning there. He didn't. He did poorly in NH, and he's way behind in SC and NV- not to mention virtually all the Feb 5th states.

[Blackhatjack]

29. You want to draw a conclusion that Edwards cannot win, but you are wrong...

Races like this can turn on a dime.

For example, if Hillary had lost N.H. she would have skipped S.C. and Nev. and she would have been roundly pronounced 'dead/cannot win' by all the junior pundits. But she won N.H. and now she will not skip S.C. and Nev, and the junior pundits give her an excellent chance of winning.

IT is just not as simple as you state that Edwards cannot win. All it takes is one slip by either or both candidates and the dynamics would change overnight.

[cali]

31. Yeah, a slip like the proverbial live boy/dead girl n/t

[Blackhatjack]

36. It's been known to happen ... even if it did not become public until years later. n/t

[Yukari Yakumo]

38. Judging by his comments...

I think OzarkDem and reality parted ways awhile ago.

I expect Edwards to get throttled in every state from here on out. On SuperTuesday, I expect him to sink beneath 15% in at least half of the states. And after ST, he never cracks 15% ever again.

[OzarkDem]

24. edit/dupe

[Yukari Yakumo]

7. None at all. {nt}

uguu

[readmoreoften]

8. Texas.

If he campaigns well here, he can win it. I've seen Democrats (yes, Democrats) with re-defeat communism in '08 shirts with Hillary's face on them. And Obama is not popular with Latinos and I don't think the farm communities are going to go for him. Edwards can win the farm communities from the Republicans by talking about working-class issues. He can appear with some ex-Farm-Aid performers and older voters will remember that. He doesn't seem to appeal to Latino voters, though, and this will be a stumbling block.

[robcon]

32. It appears he won't even come in second in any other primary state.

Other than Iowa, where he spent months, and he came in second.

[JDPriestly]

33. It does not make any difference.

Who wins what state is not the issue. The candidates are vying for delegates. According to Thom Hartmann, Edwards has 18. Obama has 25 and Hillary 24. Edwards is doing fine. We shall see how many delegates he has when the convention arrives.

Edwards is doing what is right. That is what he has done from day one.

Edwards is the best candidate.

Edwards has many, many supporters.

I tabled tonight for a couple of hours. So many people came to us because they are Edwards supporters. I do not care if other candidates are more popular at this time. I do not even care if they win more votes on February 5. I am sticking by Edwards because I know he is the best candidate. A lot of time will pass between Super Tuesday and the convention. Many things can happen. The whole focus of the election could shift. I really want Edwards to continue to talk to people and campaign on behalf of those who otherwise have not voice.

[MonkeyFunk]

37. Maybe Oklahoma

he's leading there.

[robcon]

39. Leading in Oklahoma? Do you have a link?

The info I have is that Clinton is leading in OK
Clinton 40%, Edwards 16% and Obama 15%

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/polls/Oklahoma-February-2007.html