Howard Dean vindicated. Dems pick up traditionally R district in North Mississippi tonight.

Selatius

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Wed May-14-08 12:14 AM
Original message

Howard Dean vindicated. Dems pick up traditionally R district in North Mississippi tonight.

And the pick-up was a blow-out by North Mississippi standards: Childers beat the Republican Davis by a whopping 54-46 margin. Check out the TPM scoreboard:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/05/_clinton_obama.php

It's obvious if one talks to Republican congressional leaders that this seen as a dark omen for election prospects in November. It could turn out to be one of the worst electoral massacres seen in decades, quite possibly the worst in the post-WW2-era.

Howard Dean's strategy of running a 50-state campaign and maintaining staff in each state obviously helped. The staff was already on the ground when the Childers-Davis election took off, and it forced the Republicans to expend roughly 20 percent of their total cash just to make Davis win, and they lost. 1.7 million was spent, and Childers still won over Davis, spectacularly. This, in a district that had been won by the previous Republican 7 times in a row.

This election is essentially a realignment election and an election for change. Younger voters have registered more often as Democrats than as Republicans, and for the last two election cycles, they've voted for the Democrats. (Kerry in 2004, Democrats in 2006 congressional races) If the trend holds up, they will vote a third time for the Democratic nominee for president as well as for Democrats in congressional races.

Once that happens, it seems a voting habit is established for that voter, and I would guess he or she would more than not vote for the Democrat for the rest of his or her life, depending on if the Democrats push through reforms real or perceived.

The polls say somewhere around 80 percent of Americans think the US is on the wrong track, and Bush approval numbers are probably as bad or worse than even Nixon's. The Democrats have easily painted themselves as the party of change and new ideas, and people are frankly upset at what the Republicans and Bush have offered, which is why Republicans lost both the House and Senate.

What's more: Younger voters are not as beholden to "identity politics" as older generations were. Things like abortion and gay marriage, although divisive, are less so with younger voters, who generally take a more tolerant approach.

Even a portion of the young evangelical Christians are leaning Democrat, identifying more with the message of social justice, and they perceive Democrats as more willing to set up programs to aid the poor and fight poverty and provide opportunities, issues often lost in the screaming matches over abortion, gay marriage, stem cell research, etc.

With things as they currently are, the Republicans are set for disaster barring something unexpected, such as a terrorist attack or a violent conflict with Iran. At that point, it would be difficult to guess where the country will head.