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DFW Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-16-08 09:46 AM
Original message
Lunch with a 30+ year Democratic strategist
I just came back from a meeting with a top Democrat who is a former everything
except member of the executive or Congress. 99% of it was off the record, but
even the 1% was very sobering.

A few statistics: Under Bush, if you didn't finish high school, chances are, you are far worse off now than in 2001. Under Bush, if you finished High School, chances are, you are worse off now than in 2001. Under Bush, if you finished 4 years of college, chances are you are no better off than you were in 2001. Only if you have a graduate degree, are you in the group that statistically MIGHT be better off now than in 2001.

An observance: the primary process is geared for celebrity candidates for people to get enamored of. Our nominee should have been someone like Dodd or Biden, but they didn't have enough star quality.

Another observance: We may have logic and common sense on our side, but the Republicans have a huge propaganda apparatus that has nearly unlimited funding. It still owns the "family values" issue, along with religion, and Bush won Ohio because (apart from fraud by Blackwell & Co.) by having a "defense of marriage" question on the ballot, to get out a right wing vote that otherwise would have stayed home. No matter how much common sense would dictate that we should win the presidency in a landslide, we probably won't--we'll win it in a squeaker, and then only with an all-out effort. We are up against a well-oiled propaganda machine that has been functioning successfully since 1968. Idealism and hope will not be enough to combat that: "necessary but not sufficient," as they said on the SAT tests.

The rest of it (specifics) was all off the record, but suffice it to say that it was very sobering, and that although I still like our chances in November, I came away with the notion that it will be nowhere near the lock that I hoped and thought it would be. The primary fight needs to be over, and the bile and anger, especially from the Obama side (this individual was taking the Party's side, not that of one candidate over the other) needs to stop NOW. There is a LOT of work to do, and a lot of people that need talking to (not shouting at) and convincing.

Time to roll up the proverbial sleeves. We'll win Congress, but without the White House, we'll be treading water for the next four years.

As an aside, in the hotel I was at this morning, there was a CNN broadcast on, and some idiot American watching saying out loud, as Obama's image came on the screen, "Mr. Hussein." People like that disgust me, but they need to be talked to, and civilly, if we are to stand a chance--which, I still say, we do.
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underpants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-16-08 09:50 AM
Response to Original message
1. I'm writing out a resume to the state Dem party this afternoon
aside from being completely over my new job I think I need to do what I can

The play that W got on his Hitler comment is all you need to know about what we face.
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Strelnikov_ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-16-08 09:53 AM
Response to Original message
2. "the bile and anger, especially from the Obama side"
plonk
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Me. Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-16-08 09:54 AM
Response to Original message
3. On Hardball Last Night
Christa Freeland, editor of FT, said she had attended an intense leadership seminar for a big, corp. The Co was an influential Repubicon, and he told the gathered group to study Barack Obama's campaign for it was leadership brilliant. I have faith that this time we have a fighting chance.
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LakeSamish706 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-16-08 09:55 AM
Response to Original message
4. I've said this before and I will say it again. The American people will get...
what they deserve if they dare to vote for John McCain in November. If they haven't had enough hurt in these past 7 1/2 years, I guess so be it.
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Lydia Leftcoast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-16-08 09:56 AM
Response to Original message
5. The most discouraging part of the OP
is about promoting candidates for "star quality."
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DFW Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-16-08 10:30 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. I know, but he wasn't wrong about that.
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LSK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-16-08 11:01 AM
Response to Reply #5
11. maybe theres a reason hes a star?
:shrug:
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dorkulon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-16-08 10:02 AM
Response to Original message
6. Talking politely won't get anywhere with those people.
They need to be mocked mercilessly. Schoolyard tactics work with children.
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Indenturedebtor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-16-08 10:39 AM
Response to Original message
8. So did Terry McAulife order the sour grapes or the wine and cheese plate? nt
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merh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-16-08 10:55 AM
Response to Original message
9. Is your friend DLC?
"the bile and anger, especially from the Obama side" - if you cared so much to share your "off the record" recollections and remembrances one would think you would begin to try to put into play your friend's suggestions. This "especially from the Obama side" was an unnecessary statement and is factually incorrect. Statements like that cause the anger and resentment you say needs to be set aside - both camps have had nasty supporters - it has been the clinton camp with the most negatives - especially Bill.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5995162

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LSK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-16-08 11:00 AM
Response to Original message
10. Quite frankly, this is an example of people staying in Washington too long
I disagree that it will be a close race. Why? The 3 special elections for Congress we have had recently. All wins in SAFE GOP Districts. This last race, they used that right wing propaganda machine 100% and THEY LOST.

Some of these "insiders" still think its the year 2000 or 2004.

We have had several years of Keith Olbermann.

We have had several years of AAR fighting back on the air waves all over the country.

Blogs and youtube now create a vast counter to the right wing propaganda machine.

Sorry, but I think whoever you had lunch with is somewhat of a bubbleboy.
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DFW Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 08:19 AM
Response to Reply #10
13. For the record,
He spent most of his time outside Washington. He helped negotiate the Kyoto
protocols (for all the good that did us), and is still heavily involved in
environmental issues. He is a Deaniac like me, i.e. DNC, not DLC.

Olbermann and AAR, are feel-good media, and while sometimes (even often)
brilliant, they preach to the converted. Don't get me wrong, I am delighted
that there is finally something out there that we can listen to that says
stuff we want to hear instead of the usual RW drivel, but AAR won't get
the Guns'n'God crowd to vote Democratic. Obama was not clever to mention them
in such stark terms, but he was spot on that they are a group that needs
convincing, and they listen to National Hate Radio and Foxx, not AAR or KO.
Just because logic dictates it should be a cakewalk, doesn't make it so. That's
OUR logic. Karl Rove sees things differently, and he just stole two elections
from us. It would not be wise to think he isn't trying for three in a row.
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DFW Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-16-08 06:09 PM
Response to Original message
12. Neither DLC nor a bubbleboy (very much a DNC Deaniac)
He has accomplished more in his lifetime than I could in ten, and I suspect
that goes for many of us. He was making an objective statement based on his
observations, which go back a long way. He remembered as rather symbolic the
Carter administration installing solar panels on the White House and the Reagan
administration removing them. His interests these days are still vast, but
environmental considerations are up there. He knows there is bile on both
sides, much if not all of it irrational. I agree--but it is there, and it
will have to be overcome if we are to win in November. Plus, there is a LOT
of groundwork and strategy to be done. Now that Obama has virtually cinched
the nomination, you'd think things had calmed down somewhat. Obviously not so.

I said it in the OP, but I'll say it again: I went to the meeting thinking we'd
waltz into the White House. I went out of there thinking we wouldn't. Talk to
someone who has been at the heart of Democratic Party politics since Humphrey,
and you get a long-term perspective that you can't have if you haven't been there
in the trenches for 4 decades. He has. I haven't. Have any of you? We SHOULD win
this, but it is not a given, and if anyone thinks Karl Rove will sit this one out,
dream on. He may not be on TV as the head Republican talking head strategist, but
his foul stench will be there. Their dirty tricks team has been successful all but
three times since 1968. They may look to be the underdogs this time, but the RNC
has 5 times as much money in the bank as the DNC, and they have a few hundred million
advantage as well with Fox and, to a lesser extent, CNN and the networks. We have
Keith Olbermann. He's great, but he preaches to the converted. National Hate Radio
preaches to millions of listeners exhorting them to, once again, vote against their
own interests, and tens of millions of people will do just that.

We try to see things rationally--a dangerous pitfall. Republicans win elections
because they know how to win over people who are very susceptible to irrational
arguments, and we ignore these people at our peril. The DNC and Howard's 50 State
Strategy is trying to make inroads here, but it is an uphill struggle, and just because
the Republicans have made a wretched mess of things doesn't mean people will vote
against them. Rather than trying to convince fellow Democrats to bash each other, our
energy would be better expended trying to convince people who can be made to fear
Democrats that their "family values" would be better protected by having one of our
party in the White House. Just look at the numbers--Bush at 28% and McCain at 45% or
so. He's already got Rove or his surrogates formulating his message. The tactics will be
the same--throw out as much evil trash as you can, and if any of it goes too far, you
"discipline" the offending member of your campaign and distance yourself from their
outlandish remarks, all the while enjoying the boost their effect gives your campaign.
Except for 1992 and 1996 (Gerry Ford's campaign had a Nixon problem, and so didn't really
have much of a chance to make it work for them), worked in 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988,
2000 (with a little help from their "friends") and 2004 (again, with a little help from
their "friends"). That's not such a bad track record. They did a LOT of damage in that
time. Infighting within the Democratic party helps them. Pretending it isn't happening
won't help anyone. Stopping it will.

Hillary supporters--if you think Obama is a phony, insincere, whatever, fine. But he is
also a brilliant orator who inspires hope in many people, and will try to follow through
on that oratory to push through tax reform and nominate progressive Supreme Court Judges.
He is a far better prospect than McCain. Obama supporters: if you hate Hillary
for all the reasons that have appeared in GD-P these past months, fine. But repeating
them in the same emotionally charged posts over and over ignores her mostly progressive
voting record, plus the fact that she would sing into law any major health care and tax
reform that a new Democratic Liebermanless Congress can come up with, and she would
nominate Supreme Court Judges in the same vein as Obama. McCain wants them in the vein
of Tomás de Torquemada.

Obama and Clinton have both said that when the nominee is decided, they will work their
hearts out to get that nominee elected. Will their supporters follow their lead? That's
pretty lame support if you won't.
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