Not in the interview but here is a section from his 2005 report which laysout possibilities (bolding mine)
Risk Management
It is possible that peaking may not occur for a decade or more, but it is
also possible that peaking may be occurring right now. We will not know
for certain until after the fact. The world is thus faced with a daunting risk
management problem. On the one hand, if peaking is decades away, massive
mitigation initiated soon would be premature. On the other hand, if peaking
is imminent, failure to quickly initiate mitigation will impose large near-
term economic and social costs on the world.
The two risks are asymmetric:
• Mitigation initiated prematurely would result in a relatively modest
misallocation of resources.
• Failure to initiate timely mitigation with an appropriate lead-time is
certain to result in very severe economic consequences.
The world has never confronted a problem like this. Risk minimization
requires the implementation of mitigation measures well prior to peaking.
The world is faced Since it is uncertain when peaking will occur, the challenge for decision-
with a daunting risk makers is indeed vexing. Mustering support for an invisible disaster is much
management problem. more difficult than for one that is obvious to all.
Concluding Remarks
Over the past century, world economic development has been
fundamentally shaped by the availability of abundant, low-cost oil. Previous
energy transitions (wood to coal, coal to oil, etc.) were gradual and
evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary.
The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive
mitigation at least a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive
and long lasting.
Oil peaking represents a liquid fuels problem, not an “energy crisis” in
the sense that term has been used. Accordingly, mitigation of declining
world oil production must be narrowly focused, at least in the near-term.
A number of technologies are currently available for immediate
implementation once there is the requisite determination to act.
Governments worldwide will have to take the initiative on a timely basis,
and it may already be too late to avoid considerable discomfort or worse.
Countries that dawdle will suffer from lost opportunities, because in every
crisis, there are always opportunities for those that act decisively.
Table 1: Projections of the Peaking of World Oil Production
Projected Date Source of Projection Background & Reference
Oil Executive (Iran)1
2006-2007 Bakhitari, A.M.S.
2
2007-2009 Simmons, M.R. Investment banker (U.S.)
3
After 2007 Skrebowski, C. Petroleum journal editor (U.K.)
Oil company geologist (ret., U.S.)4
Before 2009 Deffeyes, K.S.
5
Before 2010 Goodstein, D. Vice Provost, Cal Tech (U.S.)
Oil geologist (ret., Ireland)6
Around 2010 Campbell, C.J.
World Non-Government Org.7
After 2010 World Energy Council
Petroleum Executive (China)8
2012 Pang Xiongqi
9
2010-2020 Laherrere, J. Oil geologist (ret., France)
DOE analysis/ information (U.S.)10
2016 EIA nominal case
11
After 2020 CERA Energy consultants (U.S.)
12
2025 or later Shell Major oil company (U.K.)
1
Bakhtiari, A.M.S. World Oil Production Capacity Model Suggests Output Peak by 2006-07. Oil and Gas Journal. April 26,
2004.
2
Simmons, M.R. ASPO Workshop. May 26, 2003.
3
Skrebowski, C. Oil Field Mega Projects - 2004. Petroleum Review. January 2004.
4
Deffeyes, K.S. Hubbert’s Peak-The Impending World Oil Shortage. Princeton University Press. 2003.
5
Goodstein, D. Out of Gas – The End of the Age of Oil. W.W. Norton. 2004
6
Campbell, C.J. Industry Urged to Watch for Regular Oil Production Peaks, Depletion Signals. Oil and Gas Journal.. July 14,
2003.
7
Drivers of the Energy Scene. World Energy Council. 2003.
8
Pang Xiongqi. The Challenges Brought by Shortages of Oil and Gas in China and Their Countermeasures. ASPO Lisbon
Conference. May19-20, 2005.
9
Laherrere, J. Seminar Center of Energy Conversion. Zurich. May 7, 2003
10
DOE EIA. Long Term World Oil Supply. April 18, 2000. See Appendix I for discussion.
11
Jackson, P. et al. Triple Witching Hour for Oil Arrives Early in 2004 – But, As Yet, No Real Witches. CERA Alert. April 7,
2004.
12
Davis, G. Meeting Future Energy Needs. The Bridge. National Academies Press. Summer 2003.
http://www.acus.org/docs/051007-Hirsch_World_Oil_Production.pdf