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Hissyspit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-24-08 11:45 PM
Original message
Washington Post OpEd: "Wake Up America. We're Driving Toward Disaster."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/23/AR2008052302456.html?nav=rss_print/outlook

GRAND DELUSION
Wake Up, America. We're Driving Toward Disaster.


By James Howard Kunstler
Sunday, May 25, 2008; Page B03
Everywhere I go these days, talking about the global energy predicament on the college lecture circuit or at environmental conferences, I hear an increasingly shrill cry for "solutions." This is just another symptom of the delusional thinking that now grips the nation, especially among the educated and well-intentioned.

I say this because I detect in this strident plea the desperate wish to keep our "Happy Motoring" utopia running by means other than oil and its byproducts. But the truth is that no combination of solar, wind and nuclear power, ethanol, biodiesel, tar sands and used French-fry oil will allow us to power Wal-Mart, Disney World and the interstate highway system -- or even a fraction of these things -- in the future. We have to make other arrangements.

The public, and especially the mainstream media, misunderstands the "peak oil" story. It's not about running out of oil. It's about the instabilities that will shake the complex systems of daily life as soon as the global demand for oil exceeds the global supply. These systems can be listed concisely:

The way we produce food

The way we conduct commerce and trade

The way we travel

The way we occupy the land

The way we acquire and spend capital

And there are others: governance, health care, education and more.

As the world passes the all-time oil production high and watches as the price of a barrel of oil busts another record, as it did last week, these systems will run into trouble. Instability in one sector will bleed into another. Shocks to the oil markets will hurt trucking, which will slow commerce and food distribution, manufacturing and the tourist industry in a chain of cascading effects. Problems in finance will squeeze any enterprise that requires capital, including oil exploration and production, as well as government spending. These systems are all interrelated. They all face a crisis. What's more, the stress induced by the failure of these systems will only increase the wishful thinking across our nation.

And that's the worst part of our quandary: the American public's narrow focus on keeping all our cars running at any cost. Even the environmental community is hung up on this. The Rocky Mountain Institute has been pushing for the development of a "Hypercar" for years -- inadvertently promoting the idea that we really don't need to change.

Years ago, U.S. negotiators at a U.N. environmental conference told their interlocutors that the American lifestyle is "not up for negotiation." This stance is, unfortunately, related to two pernicious beliefs that have become common in the United States in recent decades. The first is the idea that when you wish upon a star, your dreams come true. (Oprah Winfrey advanced this notion last year with her promotion of a pop book called "The Secret," which said, in effect, that if you wish hard enough for something, it will come to you.) One of the basic differences between a child and an adult is the ability to know the difference between wishing for things and actually making them happen through earnest effort.

The companion belief to "wishing upon a star" is the idea that one can get something for nothing. This derives from America's new favorite religion: not evangelical Christianity but the worship of unearned riches. (The holy shrine to this tragic belief is Las Vegas.) When you combine these two beliefs, the result is the notion that when you wish upon a star, you'll get something for nothing. This is what underlies our current fantasy, as well as our inability to respond intelligently to the energy crisis.

These beliefs also explain why the presidential campaign is devoid of meaningful discussion about our energy predicament and its implications. The idea that we can become "energy independent" and maintain our current lifestyle is absurd. So is the gas-tax holiday. (Which politician wants to tell voters on Labor Day that the holiday is over?) The pie-in-the-sky plan to turn grain into fuel came to grief, too, when we saw its disruptive effect on global grain prices and the food shortages around the world, even in the United States. In recent weeks, the rice and cooking-oil shelves in my upstate New York supermarket have been stripped clean.

So what are intelligent responses to our predicament? First, we'll have to dramatically reorganize the everyday activities of American life. We'll have to grow our food closer to home, in a manner that will require more human attention. In fact, agriculture needs to return to the center of economic life. We'll have to restore local economic networks -- the very networks that the big-box stores systematically destroyed -- made of fine-grained layers of wholesalers, middlemen and retailers.

MORE

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neverforget Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-24-08 11:53 PM
Response to Original message
1. Things are going to change and it won't be pretty. Actually, I would call it
brutal the amount of change and suffering that will transpire as we feel the effects of Peak Oil.
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mike_c Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-24-08 11:57 PM
Response to Original message
2. recommended x 1000....
THIS is what Americans should be hearing from their government and from candidates for leadership!
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LucyParsons Donating Member (938 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-24-08 11:59 PM
Response to Original message
3. I totally agree, but - what about Brazil?
I keep seeing shit on TV about how they are totally energy independent. Apparently, they still have cars in Brazil.

I am asking this in earnest.
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heidler1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 12:26 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Brazil has the climate that can grow Sugar Cane, except for Florida we do not.
Much of Florida is a big swamp. Sugar Cane is way better at making ethanol than corn.
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 12:32 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. Doesn't Sugar Cain grow in the sam climate as Bamboo does?
Because I live in the Atlanta Metro, and Bamboo is a MAJOR problem (weed) here, the stuff is impossible to control in the climate we have here in 2/3s of Georgia.
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Mimosa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 01:09 AM
Response to Reply #4
15. Sugar cane is/can be grown in Louisiana, parts of TX, the Gulf Coast, GA...
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watrwefitinfor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 01:20 AM
Response to Reply #15
20. Sugar cane grows very well in parts of South Carolina.
My grandfather, and most of our neighbors grew it for making cane syrup (similar to molasses).

Wat
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juajen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 11:41 PM
Response to Reply #15
51. Yep, my father grew it in Alabama.
It will grow in most southern states.

Funny, in all of this discussion about saving our necks, why can't we address the hemp question.

I've been told that it will grow in all 50 states, and that it makes incredible fuel and everything else. Yet, nobody ever talks about it. Or rather it is rare to see that discussion.
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Art_from_Ark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 03:25 AM
Response to Reply #51
65. Don't forget Hawaii
C and H
Pure cane sugar
From Hawaii
Growing in the sun...

They're even trying to get a sugar cane methanol plant going in Kauai
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TheFarseer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 12:26 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. 3 things about Brazil
1. They don't have nearly as many cars on the road as we do.

2. Cane sugar based ethanol is much more efficient than our corn based ethanol PLUS they have flex fuel vehicles which run better on it which makes it even more efficient.

3. What most people do not hear about in Brazil - and I saw this on a Sunday talk show from someone defending Big Oil so I will not swear this is true, but they have had major offshore oil finds and they have been drilling much more of their own oil than before they got on this energy indepedence kick.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 01:01 AM
Response to Reply #5
13. Yes they did... deep fields
so I can actually swear for it
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Lydia Leftcoast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 10:00 PM
Response to Reply #13
41. Another factor to consider: alternative fuels are all carbon based and
do nothing to stop CO2 emissions.
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 12:28 AM
Response to Original message
6. Ahhh, No, Wrong. (Author James Howard Kunstler, not you)
"...Fixing the U.S. passenger railroad system is probably the one project we could undertake right away that would have the greatest impact on the country's oil consumption...?"

Yeah, RIIIIIIght! "...could undertake right away that would have the greatest impact on the country's oil consumption???" NO! Wrong. Expanding local train service is something that take year of planning and construction.

I agree that we should have more local and intercity trains, but it's NOT a quick fix solution by a long shot.

The problem is the little known conspiracy between Big Oil, the U.S. Auto Corps, the MSM/Advertisers and probably the U.S. Government. That and that the people who write books think that we are all so stupid that we believe everything written in books and what is said on DVD's you buy on crazy websites.
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Vincardog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 12:36 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. OK When do you think we should start to invest in a real public transportation system?
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 12:44 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. About 20 years ago, just like the rest of the world did...
...but telling us that it's the best short term solution to our "Oil Crisis" is just wrong and very dis-honest.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 01:05 AM
Response to Reply #10
14. Agreed BUT... we need to start... even if twenty years too late
that said, it will not be short term, nor cheap
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Vincardog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 01:11 AM
Response to Reply #14
16. How long would it take to pay for it at the 4 Million dollars a minute the Illegal Occupation of Ira
is costing us? May be I mis read your post. It sounded like you were opposed to mas transit.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 01:17 AM
Response to Reply #16
18. I'm not, I am all for mass transit
it is just the argument that we are twenty years late is one made by some who are against it.

My view is... yes indeed, we are late... but for god sakes, lets start!

Hell, my city can start with EFFICIENT routes, so it does not take me more than ten more minutes than it takes me to drive, worst case, any where in town

Right now it can take up to three hours to travel the same distance it takes me twenty minutes. This is by design

So the first step actually is not even rail... but making sure my local bus lines ARE efficiently laid out.

:-)


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Vincardog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 01:11 PM
Response to Reply #18
33. ever heard of multi tasking?
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jaybeat Donating Member (729 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 09:37 PM
Response to Reply #10
39. I think the point w/rail is the infrastructure is there...let's use it!
Edited on Sun May-25-08 09:40 PM by jaybeat
How many semis can have their trailers long-hauled by rail, and then short-hauled by bio-diesel fueled trucks to their local destination?

How many under-utilized short- or branch-lines can be used for commuter rail? (Many of which were built decades ago and so follow traditional (i.e., not auto-only) development patterns, leading to the revitalization of older (but more transportation-efficient) communities.)

How much more local farm product can be used not only by boutique restaurants but by local markets (if only the mega-supermarkets in bed with the trans-national agribusiness relationship could be broken)? How much so-called "marginal" rural land might then find a productive agricultural use instead of being snapped up for the latest auto-dependent subdivision?

So many of our governments' decisions regarding transportation, land use and development come down to supporting the out-of-date and now out-of-your-mind "American" way of doing things. If we got our government on the "right" side of these questions, along with some heavy-handed subsidy-penalty pairs to disincentivize the private sector's irrational race to the bottom, we might have a chance to avoid a Mad Max scenario by the time our kids learn to drive.

Certainly the Dems offer a glimmer of hope vs. the Repukes full steam ahead into the iceberg approach, but we need to "connect the dots" on all levels, especially local, if we're going to have a chance.

And keeping the "American lifestyle off the table" had better be OFF THE FUCKING TABLE, OUT OF THE CONFERENCE ROOM AND IN THE TRASH, or we're all fucked.

On edit...we over-engineer so much stuff its disgusting. I mean, yes, a full-meal-deal, state of the art commuter rail on existing track might take 10 years and $10 million a mile, but why the fuck not refurbish a half-dozen RDCs (self-contained diesel rail cars from the 1950s) and give it a go? Talk about fiddling while Rome burns up the last of its oil...
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Bluenorthwest Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 09:41 AM
Response to Reply #6
28. We should have started long ago
And many people have been saying that all along. But I would like to point out that Kunstler did not actually say what you said. You said expanding local train and intercity train. He said FIXING our system. Both things need to be done. They are seperate issues, however. There are many thousands of miles of rail lines not used, in disrepair, underused for the same reasons. These don't need to be built from scratch, just fixed. Still a huge job, still should have started long ago, and the expansion also needs to be done. The fixing of what we have already got would help a lot. In my area, there is a rail line that is not used that could be used by hundreds of people each day, who drive instead. Talking about 60 miles or so. Not a centruy of work, a few months at most.
The consiracy you speak of is why such spurs and routes have gone without care and are now unused. So I am not in disagrement at all. But there is much we could do in terms of repair and return to use. Not a solution but part of a solution.
Both you and Kunstler are right.
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Up2Late Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 02:19 PM
Response to Reply #28
34. Not sure if I agree completely about the writers intention, but here's another issue that...
...I'd like your thoughts on, we have a new bike trail here where I live in Georgia called "The Silver Comet Trail" which was built on an old R/R right-of-way that would have been a great route for an intercity train, yet they turned it into a Bike trail?

Thoughts?
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MadMaddie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 11:01 PM
Response to Reply #34
46. With the lack of leadership we have in this country the railroad
tracks would have laid unused....the Republicans have stymied all efforts to get the RailRoads and Amway moving ahead to meet Americans needs. For now the bike trails can serve the public....but in the future....that path may need to be converted back to rail.
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bertman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 11:12 PM
Response to Reply #28
47. A BIG JOB INDEED, BUT DOABLE
if we have the will. And that's where my man Barry comes in.

No, he isn't rattling the rafters with calls for conservation and stay-at-home vacations, but after he is elected Prezinint circumstances that are already in motion now are going to force us all--meaning us Merkuns--to change our evil ways.

And therein lies the beauty of Barry.

Did you hear his commencement address at Wesleyan today? It was all about service to country and to higher ideals than having big homes and fancy suits. He called upon the graduates to give of themselves to help to change the world instead of bolting into the world of corporate ladder-climbing. They cheered him and applauded him but, of course, no one knows if they'll really DO SOMETHING about it.

But, if Barack Obama cannot inspire us to action I don't know who the hell can? I'm 60 and he's shown me that I can make a difference by organizing on the grass roots level and doing WHAT I CAN TO HELP. We need a President who will help us to define the issues that are most important. Barry can. Yes he can.

We need a President who will inspire the masses to SERVE THEIR COUNTRY instead of being helpless, hopeless couch potatoes. Barry can. Yes he already is. We need a President with the VISION to implement a Green Jobs Corps (imagine AmeriCorps on steroids) to expedite those repairs on the rail system, to make ALL American homes more energy efficient by using basic techniques that minimally-skilled Job Corps workers are quite capable of, to till the Victory Gardens that we are going to grow to win the WAR FOR TERRA, not the War on Terror, to put the brainpower of our best and brightest to work figuring out solutions to our problems instead of figuring out how to maximize obscene profits. Barry can help inspire us to believe in the slogan YES WE CAN and to turn it into YES WE DID.

I was at the National Green Building Conference in New Orleans a couple of weeks ago. There were people there from every imaginable element of the building industry: contractors, manufacturers, real estate developers, scientists, mom and pop business owners, and corporate heads. There were thousands there whereas five years ago there were a few hundred. The awareness is changing exponentially. Yes, a lot of it in the industry is market-driven and seems to be geared toward high-tech, high profit trends, but that's ok. because business people are a highly motivated group that can influence the country's business direction in a positive way if they are properly educated. Very conservative people are talking about climate change and alternative energy solutions and sustainability. Three years ago most of these folks would have laughed at you if you had told them they would be advocating anything "green".

Why do you think so many Independents and Republicans say they will vote for Obama? It's because they are inspired. They want to be inspired. They want CHANGE. They are tired of the same old shit just like we liberals and you centrists out there are (well maybe not on this site). But the bottom line is it will take a leader who can convince us that it's a challenge we can meet. And, as Barry has told us time and time again, YES WE CAN!!

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rucognizant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 10:34 AM
Response to Reply #28
60. Here in Maine
we were on the verge of tearing up our rail lines.................
The state legislature voted instead to keep them & refurbish them!
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Wwagsthedog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 12:37 AM
Response to Original message
9. Kunstler makes wapo!?
Edited on Sun May-25-08 12:39 AM by Wwagsthedog
Who'd a thunk it? Does this mean our future perdicament will be understood by the tooth fairies in our esteemed government? Doubtful, for sure. edit, sp.
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scotto2008 Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 12:46 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. Isn't this Human Nature and Politics 101?
People never respond to looming crises, hence, neither do politicians. It takes a full-blown crisis to get anyone to act.

I fear it will always be so...
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Skittles Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 12:59 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. that's pretty much what it will take to make people stop voting repuke
that's for sure :hi:
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lurky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 01:14 AM
Response to Original message
17. I expect in a couple decades that those outer-ring suburbs...
will become more-or-less abandoned. They just won't be economically viable without cheap oil. I'm expecting an influx of people into the core cities, and these places will have little choice but to expand transit infrastructure and increase housing density.

This will be ugly though: for example, New York's subway system is already at or beyond capacity on most lines, and ridership keeps growing rapidly as people leave their cars at home. How they will respond as this trend becomes a crisis is a mystery to me. Oil-culture cities like LA, Phoenix, Houston, and especially Las Vegas will be in even deeper trouble. I sometimes wonder if Vegas will be reclaimed by the sands in 100 years.
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cbc5g Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 01:18 AM
Response to Reply #17
19. Self sufficient communes will become increasingly popular n/t
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 03:19 AM
Response to Reply #17
21. I think cities will suffer more than exurbs.
Large cities grew up in the cheap energy era of the industrial revolution. Before that, far-flung small towns close to the farms which provided for their citizens were the norm. Cities suffered the brunt of our Great Depression, with the city-based financial and retail sectors being hit much harder than agriculture and energy (sound familiar?). The idea that cities will fare any better this time is untested. The notion that we can continue our excessive lifestyle as long as we do it in a manner that involves walking to the Starbuck's instead of driving seems a bit misguided to me.
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Bluenorthwest Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 09:53 AM
Response to Reply #21
29. During the Great Depression
My father was a child on a farm. His whole community was devestated. He and his brothers and sisters were put in foster care and orphanages for a time. In many ways, the area is just now recovering. So there you go. They lived on a farm and went hungry on that farm. Imagine that. I'm sure you are right and the cities got it worse, but for my family it was rural and harsh as harsh can be. Rural America suffered during that time and really never came back strongly.
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Lydia Leftcoast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 10:10 PM
Response to Reply #29
42. My great-uncle was a Lutheran minister in a rural area during the Depression
The farmers had little or no cash and could not afford to pay him his full wages every month, in which case they tried to make up for it with a dozen eggs or some ears of corn. It got so bad that he and his wife seriously considered farming their children out to their siblings in the city, all of whom had either public school or city government jobs.

They were in the midst of making arrangements when my great-uncle happened to see an ad for Army chaplains. It sounded like a way out, but he was just a shade underweight. He stuffed himself on day-old bread to make the weight qualifications, and from then there were no more worries about money, although there were worries about him getting killed as World War II and Korea came along.

Anyway, the point is that not all farmers fared well in the Depression. They could supply themselves with food IF they raised a variety of crops and/or could barter with their neighbors, but as in the early 1980s, a lot of farmers got into trouble with debt. (Farmers traditionally borrow against the year's anticipated profits to buy seed, equipment, and whatever else they need to produce their crops and raise their animals.) Prices for their crops fell sharply, but the banks still wanted their money.
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Nay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 10:36 AM
Response to Reply #21
30. Agreed. I like Kunstler, but I believe cities will be largely abandoned,
and the suburbs that are "so far out" will become a series of hubs themselves while the core cities die. For one thing, it's oil that allows such a thing as a skyscraper, and even plain old multistory buildings, to exist. Most don't even have windows that open. What's the plan there? I can't see how they would be rehabbed, while comparatively sustainable smaller houses and strip malls are abandoned. I do agree with Kunstler about most McMansions being unsustainable -- for a nuclear family, that is -- but I personally think they will be turned into boarding houses. Older suburban lots will have chicken coops, rabbit hutches, and gardens. Try that in the city -- there's no room.

It will be far easier to rehab the burbs into something remotely like the small towns surrounded by farms that existed in the last hundred years. That existence is the most sustainable and most attainable for us now, as we face the oil shocks pretty quickly due to the business-as-usual assholes who have run this place for the last 30 years. Remember them? The ones who laughed at and mocked Pres. Carter when he called for energy conservation and attention to the problems we would face?
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kevinbgoode Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 04:06 AM
Response to Original message
22. Will we go back to small neighborhood groceries?
Practically every town had small groceries every few blocks, and people walked to one or two in order to get their food, often every day. Of course, we also had an extensive network of interurban transportation as well, a streetcar-like design which would travel to cities in about a 50 mile radius and moved people and mail quickly between locations.

I'm a big fan of public transportation, but American public behavior would have to be changed. . .Americans aren't taught how to behave in a public setting. I've been on too many trains with one or two rude people loudly talking on cellphones for hours...or people launching a "party" and forcing other to participate in their event. There is little consideration of others, particularly when we have an entire generation taught to think only of themselves.
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Nay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 10:47 AM
Response to Reply #22
31. Thanks for mentioning public behavior, Kevin. I cannot agree more.
One of the main reasons why I, and many like me, do not use public transportation is the high probability of being subjected to just the sort of boobs you describe. I am already an introverted person, and I despise having my personal space constantly invaded by rude assholes. I get enough of this at work, at the grocery, on the roads, etc., and I do not need any more of it. Any more would be overload.

I suspect you don't have to be an introvert to feel this way. That book ("Bowling Alone," I think) described how so many Americans simply aren't taking part in public life anymore, and part of the reason has always been obvious to me -- the public has become ruder and ruder, louder and louder, and totally self-centered. Who the hell wants more of that at the end of the day? Not me. I'd rather read, garden, yak on this board, and avoid that shit.
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NJCher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 09:38 AM
Response to Reply #31
68. that's me!!
First time I've heard anyone else express that, so thank you. If I go out in public, I have a little "kit" I've put together. It consists of earplugs and I also have a noise-cancellation technology headset. Ipod, of course. I wear sunglasses to shut out bright light, and dim the visual clutter. I plan my outings at the times when there will be the fewest people there, i.e., grocery shopping at 7 a.m.

And that's how I get by without slapping my fellow American cell-phone talking, SUV-driving, accompanied-by-rude, ill-mannered-children upside the head.



Cher
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marmar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 09:39 AM
Response to Reply #22
59. Yes, there are turkeys on public transit, but those are minor annoyances at worst....
Edited on Mon May-26-08 09:39 AM by marmar
.... I think there's a perception/reality problem with public transit. (Not with you, but in general). Lots of people are unreasonably paranoid about public transit.


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Indenturedebtor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 12:30 AM
Response to Reply #22
64. I couldn't agree with you more. The boomers need to be more socialist.
And what's more it will be hard to tear them away from their hyperconsuming ways. This will largely be an endeavor of the young I'm afraid.

Trains NOW!

As for the skyscrapers there are already solar panels available on the cheap that can coat the outside of buildings.

With trains I think that cities are the way to go!
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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 04:50 AM
Response to Original message
23. The Post published Kunstler!
Edited on Sun May-25-08 04:53 AM by depakid
I wonder what their motivation was?
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hatrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #23
62. Call me crazy, but I have three guesses as to their motivations . . .
1. $4.00 gasoline
2. $5.00 diesel
3. Really shitty retail numbers
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Supersedeas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 08:49 AM
Response to Original message
24. but the War President ordered us to sacrifice and shop shop shop shop shop
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mdmc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 09:00 AM
Response to Original message
25. "Wake Up America. We're Driving Toward Disaster."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/23/AR2008052302456.html?nav=rss_print/outlook
Thanks for the link and the OP. :toast:

Nice to see some real thoughts on the post peak world lifestyle.
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KG Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 09:08 AM
Response to Original message
26. 'We have to make other arrangements'
the US has been needing to do that since 1979, but parties have failed by ignoring the elephant that was siiting right there.
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IDemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 09:37 AM
Response to Original message
27. One thing that needs to happen soon (and does not require an "Apollo Project")
The Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) concept should be embraced by anyone who recognizes the issues we will face shortly with food production, processing, shipment, and safety. The CSA movement is gaining ground (literally!) across the US, but much more can and should be done to increase local food production.

http://www.communitygarden.org/



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Nay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 10:55 AM
Response to Reply #27
32. Communities need to band together and identify land that could be
used to grow food in the way that Cuba has done it over the past 15 years. It can't be a hobbyist thing, although that's a start. We have to get serious, but that's difficult for most people. Funny how everyone will be screaming for food, but it's so hard to get anyone do anything even as simple as planting a tomato plant in a tub.
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Raksha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 01:37 AM
Response to Reply #32
55. I've been thinking about that for weeks, every time I pass a vacant lot.
I wonder why that land isn't being used to grow food. I'm in San Bernardino, California, in an area that's been very hard-hit by the collapse of the housing bubble. Lots of foreclosures, and a lot of small businesses seem to be failing too.

And yet it was an agricultural area only a few years before they started putting up condo developments and shopping malls in every vineyard and orange grove. But a lot of those shopping malls are almost vacant now, and nobody is going to be building anything on the remaining vacant land for years to come. So why don't they grow food for the people who are already here?
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windoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 06:00 PM
Response to Original message
35. Wishing is passive, but envisioning
yourself in a future that actually works, down to the details, is more productive. Crisis gives us a choice, to be passive during crisis creates a vacuum that government or military will step in and take control, or become pro active and change from the grassroots in each neighborhood, working locally to solve transportation, housing and food challenges, and communicating effectively. Change is not a choice, but how to change is.
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alarimer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 07:08 PM
Response to Original message
36. I believe there is no way out.
I'm just going to do the best I can and hope not to die anytime soon.
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natrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 07:46 PM
Response to Reply #36
37. i agree-with millions living in cold north east cities you cant feed them in winter
or cool the people in 115 degree summer heat in phoenix
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Lydia Leftcoast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 10:15 PM
Response to Reply #37
43. People lived in cold northeast cities (and cold northern Europe) for
centuries before oil was even discovered.

Mass migration to the Sunbelt is an extremely recent phenomenon (most of the cities in the Southwest and South were relatively small before WWII), and mass migration to Las Vegas is one of the stupidest phenomena of the past ten years. The area will have to be abandoned or largely depopulated anyway in a few decades because it is using water at 130% of sustainability (and those figures are already several years old).
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Jack_DeLeon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 12:44 AM
Response to Reply #43
54. Yes but most of those people were raised in and learned to live there...
the people living there today for the most part dont know how to live that way.
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Lydia Leftcoast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 09:28 AM
Response to Reply #54
58. Yes, I meant that those Southwestern cities will collapse as major
population centers.
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salib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 08:07 PM
Response to Original message
38. Just more opportunities for the Shock Doctrine
So many opportunities, so many sociopaths, so little time.
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Stinky The Clown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 09:49 PM
Response to Original message
40. Fuck you, WAPO. You're part of the REASON we're where we are.
You bush cheering fuckwads.

In 2000 you could have exposed the truth about the stolen election and the fucking of President Gore.

I am **still** not over that.

Any angst you have now .... too little, WAAAAAAAAAAY too fucking late.
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L0oniX Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 10:25 PM
Response to Original message
44. In 1968 students at Berkley were saying that if we didn't start to prepare and convert then....
that by year 2000 it would be too late to do anything about peak oil and global warming. America is going down ...Babylon style.
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defendandprotect Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 11:26 PM
Response to Reply #44
49. Many are still trying to ensure that those ideas can't be heard . . .
They were right --- and many of us didn't understand the ideas they were talking about ---
and corporate-media was ensuring that the ideas were ridiculed and labeled as outlandish.

Later, many of us were able to catch up with those ideas -- natural ideas and methods ---
though still in our "medicine" we are relying on cures rather than prevention and doing great
harm with "slash and burn" medicines.

These ideas are anti-corporate/anti-capitalistic exploitation and are still being fought --
the oil industry has run decades of propaganda filled with lies disclaiming Global Warming.

Good gawd --- they're still even fighting a return to breastfeeding---!!!
But by now, Mothers in 37 states have rocket fuel in their breast milk!!!

Yes . . . patriarchy, organized patriarchal religions, capitalism are all going down ---

"Manifest Destiny" and "Man's Dominion Over Nature" are all a crock --- !!!

Nature rules --- and when we don't heed nature, we destroy ourselves.





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liskddksil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 10:28 PM
Response to Original message
45. I recommend
Kunstler's book, "Geography of Nowhere" as well as Duaney and Zybernik's "Suburban Nation" for in depth analysis, of how sprawl has impacted all facets of American life, and what sorts of policies can be implemented to correct this crisis.
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defendandprotect Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 11:15 PM
Response to Original message
48. We're not reinventing the world here; we're re-setting it aright . . .
Edited on Sun May-25-08 11:19 PM by defendandprotect
We had electric cars ---
We had mass transportation ---
We need to finance it --- we've been starving it ---

Eventually, we may have a situation where workers won't be able to afford the gas to get to work --
Originally mass transit came about in NYC because workers were housed in cheaper areas away from
downtown NYC ---

Many places still have electric trolleys tho the oil/auto industry tried to pull them all!

We can have ELECTRIC CARS on our highways in 3-5 years . . .
we can raise up a corporation to do it -- and subsidize both ends of it... manufacture and purchase.

Cars can be CONVERTED . . .
This is all industry in the making --- industry which UNDOES harmful industry ---

Why are you not mentioning Electric Cars? --- Solar cell energy?

And what to make of this . . . ???

no combination of solar, wind and nuclear power, ethanol, biodiesel, tar sands and used French-fry oil will allow us to power Wal-Mart, Disney World and the interstate highway system -- or even a fraction of these things -- in the future. We have to make other arrangements.

And who in their right mind would want nuclear power???
Contrary to the Enron argument, YES . . . Wal-Mart and Disney World can be powered without having to have a GRID NETWORK for electricity.

In four months during the Enron "crisis" in California, 170,000 families were put on line with power from wind mills --- FOUR MONTHS.

We certainly do not have to drag energy over miles of long lines ---
every school, every business can have its own generators.

One of the first things to understand -- and everyone should -- is that scientists were talking about the need for cultural change more than 16 years ago in their "WARNING TO HUMANITy" . . .
the other is that change has been suppressed, alternative energy has been suppressed --- it is
there waiting to spring forth --- to increase its potential amazingly!

We don't have to drag food in from California --- we don't have to eat animals
Life isn't really about working with a pen and pencil while neglecting the reality of our own
lives, our own personal work ---
Airline travel is going to have to be curtailed because no airline/no passengers will be able to
afford the gas -- and we certainly can no longer afford the POLLUTION!

As we can see tonight, storms/tornadoes coming thru the mid-west have turned houses into tooth picks ---

We also have to understand that Patriarchy, Organized Patriarchal religons which underpin patriarchy --- and Capitalism -- are all going down --- they are SUICIDAL concepts of domination.
Of course, "Manifest Destiny" and "Man's Dominion Over Nature" --- exploitation of natural resources and animal life --- all coming to an end.

Only WE can change government and thereby our public education system which has been near destroyed and starved for funds --- health care based on prevention instead of cures -- etal ---

We have seriously attacked nature and the planet --- in effect, attacked ourselves because we are
part of nature. There is a question as to whether even our planet will survive our onslaught ...
more than likely we will not. HOWEVER, we must continue to try to save the planet.

More than a dozen years ago, the NY Times carried a story in the front section of the newspaper which stated that "the dams and reservoirs which the Army Corps of Engineers had built across the nation during the past 50-60 years were IMPACTING THE ROTATION OF THE EARTH."

After that -- and for many other reasons -- there were discussions about dismantling the dams ---
discussions which began to educate the public as to the problems the cause for nature.
Our planet has never really be secure on its axis ---

There's a lot to think about --- and if we are coming to an end, there is only one way to go ---
TRYING to save the planet!










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unkachuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 11:35 PM
Response to Original message
50. screw you, WaPo....
....austerity, hardship, energy crisis just in time for your new Democratic administration....save your pennies, peddle your bikes, eat your spinach, forget about healthcare and demand nothing from government so we can survive this new crisis and the next repug pillaging of our economy and country....you knew this was coming, this is bullshit....

....this energy shortage crap has been going on for over 50 years, nothing new here....what is new is no one is taxing, regulating or controlling the corrupt political/war powers many corporations and wall street/speculators now exercise....

....there is no lifestyle change required so long as the rich remain rich and profit-wars are used to control supply, demand and energy distribution....supply and distribution problems must be resolved with negotiations not bullets....we're losing the opportunity to establish these new global institutions, that is the real 'crisis'....

....if energy and the devices that use it were designed and produced task-friendly instead of profit-friendly frugality would be in every product and the worlds energy supply would last far into the future with little discomfort....

....should we save energy, yes....is demand increasing, yes....is it manageable now and into the future, yes....is it manageable with our current capital based global system, no....

"It's not about running out of oil."....it's about politics....



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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 02:22 AM
Response to Reply #50
57. "when you wish upon a star...!"
Get real, and get informed.
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Strelnikov_ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 12:30 AM
Response to Original message
52. Kunstlercasts
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riverdeep Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 11:54 PM
Response to Reply #52
63. Second the Kunstler casts.
Especially the one on 'starchitects', star architects who see something pragmatic like a building as their own personal design project without regard for actual use.
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 12:34 AM
Response to Original message
53. Two words: TOO LATE. America had the solutions in the 1970s with Carter. Then they elected REAGAN.
The pain is coming, but it could have been avoided if the US started early in the 1970s with Carter's forward energy plan, but that was junked the second Reagan entered office. Reagan was unimaginative at best, incompetent at worst.
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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 02:20 AM
Response to Original message
56. He says what I and many others have been saying for years:
Fixing the U.S. passenger railroad system is probably the one project we could undertake right away that would have the greatest impact on the country's oil consumption. The fact that we're not talking about it -- especially in the presidential campaign -- shows how confused we are. The airline industry is disintegrating under the enormous pressure of fuel costs. Airlines cannot fire any more employees and have already offloaded their pension obligations and outsourced their repairs. At least five small airlines have filed for bankruptcy protection in the past two months. If we don't get the passenger trains running again, Americans will be going nowhere five years from now."

(snip)

A National high speed mag-lev system with light rail connectors would keep us moving and put thousands of Americans back to work. But you won't hear Obama or HRC talk about one, because they-like nearly all our "Representatives", are whoring for the fossil fuel corporations.
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Blue_Tires Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 10:48 PM
Response to Original message
61. very true
I kind of wish more people had a little foresight...The time I lived in Atlanta during a minor gas crunch (late 90s) was an eye-opening experience, and I wondered aloud what would happen during the next major price spike...Sadly, no one wanted to listen -- the economy was good, gas was relatively cheap, the exurbs and super-suburbs were growing, SUVs were still in style, and people didn't mind long commutes as long as they didn't have to deal with the unwashed masses on MARTA...

This quote seals it for me: Years ago, U.S. negotiators at a U.N. environmental conference told their interlocutors that the American lifestyle is "not up for negotiation."

Sums up the entire anti-environmental mindset -- People are going to be due for some rude awakenings and have to realize that there will be some serious lifestyle changes in the future...They are not necessarily bad changes, but trying to resist them only prolongs the problems...
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JohnyCanuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 07:14 AM
Response to Original message
66. Learn to live like the Amish people.
Learn to live like the Amish people.

SNIP

This past week I had the opportunity, while visiting family in Northern Indiana, to spend a day with Amish relatives. Unlike my associations with them previously, this visit was colored by my acute awareness of civilization's collapse and the ramifications of that reality for most of us.

With that in mind, I keenly observed and discussed their lifestyle with them as gas prices now loom toward $5 per gallon. I came away from the experience with an unprecedented conviction that in order to survive and perhaps even thrive in the throes of collapse, it will be necessary to adopt a number of aspects of the Amish lifestyle.

Perhaps most obvious is the reality that the Amish do not own or drive cars although they are not averse to riding in them or using public transportation. It should be understood that Amish practices vary according to geographic location. For example, Amish in Pennsylvania have different practices than those in Indiana or Ohio; however, no authentically Amish person anywhere in North America owns or drives a car. For local transportation, the horse and buggy are used, and for long-distance travel, busses, trains, or the hiring of drivers of vans or cars is commonplace. Thus, the Amish are not impacted as we are by high gas prices. They use sparse amounts of gasoline to power small motors around their homes and farms that power refrigerators, washing machines, and pump running water. Many Amish farms have giant windmills that also pump water for home and farm animal consumption.

The meal I shared with my Amish relatives a few days ago consisted of a delicious salad comprised of vegetables from their garden, chicken butchered on their farm, and an assortment of other foods all raised and prepared by them.

After dark the Amish rely on Coleman lanterns for light; however, some communities use only candles and kerosene lamps. In any event, all are off the grid and do not utilize electricity, natural gas, or home heating oil. Woodstoves provide heating, and wood fuels the kitchen stove on which meals are cooked. For small meals a Coleman camping stove may be used which is fueled by propane canisters. Some more conservative branches of the community do not have indoor plumbing at all, do not use gasoline-powered motors, do not have refrigerators, couches, or stuffed chairs. They use no running water, but only windmills and hand pumps.

http://energybulletin.net/44899.html
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JohnyCanuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 08:41 AM
Response to Original message
67. Al Jazeera program on Peak Oil (Youtube video)
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